Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bets: July 25

Two of the best teams in the league square off Friday when the New York Liberty (16-6) host the Phoenix Mercury (15-8) at 7:30 p.m. ET (ION) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.

This is a potential semifinal matchup with the Liberty slotted in as No. 2 seed and the Mercury sitting at No. 3 in the latest playoff standings. New York is a 6-point favorite as the WNBA championship odds favorite.

Our Mercury vs. Liberty odds and prediction believe the better team will prevail, especially now that Jonquel Jones is back in the lineup. Read to the end for our best player prop bet on Jones in this game.

🔮 Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Liberty ML (-265 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Liberty -5.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 169.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Mercury vs. Liberty?

✅ Moneyline pick: Liberty will win (-265 via FanDuel)

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The Liberty improved to 9-1 with Jonquel Jones in the lineup in her first game back from injury on Tuesday. Their lone loss came against the Mercury, when Jones suffered her injury and played only nine minutes.

New York is simply the best team in the league at full strength. Don’t overthink it.

💰 Mercury vs. Liberty best bet & WNBA predictions

1️⃣ Liberty 1Q winner / full game winner ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.52)

Phoenix head coach Nate Tibbetts acknowledged his team’s struggles in the first quarter following a 90-79 loss to the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday. The Mercury faced a 26-17 deficit early on, primarily because they had used their sixth different starting lineup of the year.

Now that the Mercury are finally healthy, I suspect they won’t struggle as much in the opening period where they have a +1.1 net rating. However, I don’t see that changing after traveling through multiple time zones to face a full-strength Liberty squad.

New York ranks second in the league with a +9.5 net rating in the first quarter. That mark jumps up to +19.1 (best in the WNBA) when playing at home.

The Liberty are solid favorites in this matchup for a reason, but this -105 value on them to win the first quarter and the game is a more affordable way to back the better team in this spot.

👀 Best player prop for Mercury vs. Liberty

💪 Jonquel Jones to record a double-double ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +350 via bet365 ($10 to win $35)

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This line is downright disrespectful. In her first game back after a month off, Jones finished one board shy of a double-double with 18 points and nine rebounds in 23 minutes.

Jones has registered a double-double in six of her 10 games this season. She played single-digit minutes in two of the four games in which she didn’t record a double-double.

I’ll run to place this wager and not ask any questions.

🏀 Mercury vs. Liberty odds today

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❓ WNBA betting FAQs

How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

What does betting against the spread mean?

Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

💵 Best WNBA betting sites

Want to bet on Mercury vs. Liberty? Here are our best sportsbooks and our best sportsbook promos for the WNBA.

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
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• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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