🏀 Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction Today: WNBA Picks & Best Bets for Monday, June 1
The 2026 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup tips off today, with the Lynx visiting the Mercury in the nightcap. My Lynx vs. Mercury prediction features a best bet on the spread, a Kahleah Copper player prop, and an SGP at +310 odds.
Tipoff from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix is set for 10 p.m. ET (Peacock, NBCSN), with the Lynx listed as a 2.5-point betting favorite.
🏀 Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury +2.5 (+100 via BetMGM) | 1.5u → 1.5u | Had an 80.9% win probability vs. the Lynx in their first meeting this season |
| Under 166.5 (-108 via FanDuel) | 0.54u → 0.5u | Under is 5-1 in Lynx's last 6 games |
| Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) | 1.1u → 1u | Has attempted 18+ shots in 4 of her last 7 games |
Total wagered: 3.14 units | Max profit: 3 units
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🏆 Who will win Lynx vs. Mercury?
I agree with the market that the Lynx should be favored in this spot, but a 2.5-point line is too high. The Lynx have the third-shortest WNBA championship odds and lead the W in field-goal percentage, opponent points per game, and point differential, among other key stats. If this game were played 100,000 times, I would expect the Lynx to win more than 50 percent of the time, but only slightly, which is why the Mercury’s spread offers value.
Score prediction: Lynx 81, Mercury 80
💰 Lynx vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Mercury +2.5 (+100)
The Mercury are not as bad as the market is implying in this spot. The last time these teams met (May 12), the Mercury had an 80.9% win probability with 4:08 remaining, per ESPN Analytics.
While the Lynx pulled off the unlikely comeback, they struggled to guard Copper, who scored a season-high 30 points, and DeWanna Bonner (16 points, a season high). It's unlikely the Lynx will get that lucky this time around. The best odds are Mercury +2.5 (+100) at BetMGM, but I'd still be comfortable playing Mercury +2.5 (-106) on any of the best sports betting sites.
🔥 Best Lynx vs. Mercury player prop bet
Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 points (-110)
Not only did the Lynx struggle to slow down Copper in their first meeting this season, but she has been extra aggressive lately.
The four-time All-Star has attempted 18 or more field goals in four of her last seven games and, despite making just four field goals against the Liberty on Friday, still took 16 shots. When we’re betting Overs on players, we want to focus on shooters who don’t lose confidence if they struggle early.
BetMGM has the best odds with Copper Over 19.5 points (-110), but playing Over 19.5 (-114) on any of the best sports betting apps is also OK.
🚀 Lynx vs. Mercury same-game parlay
If the Mercury keep this game close - which I expect to happen - it will give Kayla McBride more possessions late in the game to go over her points total. She has been the Lynx’s primary ballhandler in late-game situations and should have plenty of opportunities to shoot 3-pointers or get fouled in the fourth quarter today. bet365 offers this SGP at +310, while FanDuel lists this parlay at +254.
💵 Lynx vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Mercury +3
- Kayla McBride Over 14.5 points
Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.32u -> 1u)
📊 Live Lynx vs. Mercury odds
📺 How to watch Lynx vs. Mercury
- Date: Monday, June 1
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: Peacock, NBCSN
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