Liberty vs. Aces Predictions, Odds & WNBA Best Bets: Aug. 13

Two WNBA championship odds contenders meet tonight at Michelob Ultra Arena in Paradise, Nev., as the Las Vegas Aces host the New York Liberty at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Given the tear A'ja Wilson is on and New York's defensive issues, our Liberty vs. Aces predictions expect the scoreboard to be lit up all night in Sin City.

🔮 Liberty vs. Aces predictions: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Aces (-142 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Aces -2.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 171.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Liberty vs. Aces?

✅ Moneyline pick: Aces will win (-142 via DraftKings)

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This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Liberty, who had to win a shootout on the road against the Los Angeles Sparks last night. New York's defense struggled in that matchup and has backslid since the team's 9-0 start. It doesn't help that the Liberty are still without Breanna Stewart, which should make things easier for A'ja Wilson down low.

The Aces have also completely turned around their season after a 9-11 start to the year. Vegas has won nine of its last 12, including four straight. I expect the win streak to continue tonight, and I'm projecting a 90 to 86 win for the Aces.

💰 Liberty vs. Aces best bet & WNBA predictions

🚀 Over 171.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)

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The Aces' improved play has coincided with them consistently hitting Overs; they're 8-4 betting the Over since mid-July. This offense has come to life in recent weeks, with Wilson being the most obvious reason why. However, it hasn't just been her who's pulled Las Vegas up to No. 7 in offensive rating. Jackie Young, Jewell Loyd, and Chelsea Gray are all scoring in the double digits.

In July and August, Vegas is averaging 83.1 points per game, up from their average of 79.6 in June when the team went just 5-6. Their improved offensive play should help them push a Liberty defense that's fallen to the back half of the league in points allowed per game (81.4) and has allowed 80-plus points in 12 of their last 23 games after allowing more than 78 just once over their first nine games.

Luckily for the Liberty, their offense is still No. 1 in points per game (87.0) and No. 2 in offensive rating (109.0). While being down Stewart hurts, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Emma Meesseman, and Natasha Cloud should be able to capitalize against a Vegas defense that's fifth-worst in defensive rating (106.2).

👀 Liberty vs. Aces player prop

♠️ A'ja Wilson Over 32.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -120 via bet365 ($10 to win $8.33)

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Wilson remains at an MVP level this season and sits No. 2 in the W in points per game (22.2) and rebounds per game (9.6) after three straight ridiculous performances. Over her last three games, Wilson is putting up a combined 42.3 points and rebounds per game, and is coming off a 32-point, 20-rebound outing against the Connecticut Sun.

With Stewart out for the Liberty, and New York allowing the most rebounds per game in the league (36.3), Wilson has a clear path to hitting this Over. 

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