Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova Prediction & Odds for 2025 US Open First Round Tonight

Mike Spector highlights his best Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova predictions based on the best tennis odds for the 2025 US Open first round, with Muchova (-1400) as the betting favorite.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 25, 2025 10:46 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Tonight: US Open 2025 Expert Picks — Pictured: Venus Williams (USA) serves as I offer my Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova prediction. Photo by Aaron Doster via Imagn Images.

Venus Williams is facing No. 11 seed Karolina Muchova tonight in the first round of the US Open, and I'm breaking down the historic match with my Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova prediction.

Williams, a two-time US Open champion, is making her 25th US Open appearance after she was awarded a wildcard for the main draw. This match takes place at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) tonight at Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, N.Y.

The 45-year-old Williams has +850 odds at our best sports betting sites, giving her an 10.53% implied probability to win. Oddsmakers clearly do not have much faith in her as I offer my moneyline pick and best overall wager for tonight's match.

🎾 Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova prediction & best bet

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best US Open odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Pick to win: Karolina Muchova (-1400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Venus Williams +6.5 games (-124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova odds: US Open 2025

Latest US Open odds via DraftKings; implied probability via our odds converter.

	Venus Williams	Karolina Muchova
Moneyline	+850	-1400
Spread	+6.5 (-124)	-6.5 (-108)
Over/Under	Over 18.5 (-110)	Under 18.5 (-122)

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📈 Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova betting odds analysis

Muchova opened as a -1200 betting favorite at the best sports betting apps. That line lengthened to Muchova -1400 as of Monday morning, giving her an implied win probability of 93.34%.

Based on how oddsmakers see this match playing out, it would be a shock if the legend Williams comes out on top tonight.

🏆 Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova pick to win

✅ Karolina Muchova ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -1400 via DraftKings ($10 to win $0.71)
🔢 Implied probability: 93.34%

Williams did not get any favors with this draw, as this is the only Grand Slam where Muchova has made multiple semifinal appearances, and those came in each of the last two years.

Few are likely to be excited about backing Muchova at these steep moneyline odds, and will likely have to get creative to return any value.

Muchova is not in jeopardy of losing outright, as she has won each of her last 16 WTA first round hard-court matches.

Bettors can mitigate these odds somewhat by backing Muchova to win the first set at -550 odds, which she has done in each of her last 11 Grand Slam matches against older opponents. But perhaps the best return on a moneyline sort of wager is the -330 odds for Muchova to win in straight sets, which would net $3.03 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

💰 Best Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova prop bet

✅ Venus Williams +6.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -124 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.06)
🔢 Implied probability: 55.36%

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Williams has lost in the first round in each of her last three US Open appearances in 2020, 2022, and 2023. And she has not performed well in the underdog role, as the favorite has covered the game spread in each of her last eight main draw US Open matches.

But we are bucking this trend with a play on Williams to cover the game spread, hoping that the partisan American crowd will spur her to be competitive.

Williams can draw on the fact that she lost a tight match to Muchova 3-6, 5-7 at the US Open, albeit in 2020. All it would take for Williams to cover this spread is something like a 3-6, 3-6 defeat, provided oddsmakers are correct in that she will not win a set.

🆚 Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova stats & US Open history

Venus Williams	H2H statistic	Karolina Muchova
0	Matches won	1
0	Wins in straight sets	1
0	Sets won	2
8	Games won	13
0	Wins on hardcourt surface	1

📺 US Open first round match info

When: Monday, August 25
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows, N.Y.
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Muchova -1200 via DraftKings

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”