US Open AI Predictions 2025: ChatGPT's Long Shot Bet, Best Picks at Flushing Meadows
The countdown to the culmination of the tennis season is well and truly on as we offer US Open AI predictions.
ChatGPT chimes in with its winner and long-shot bet for both sides of the draw while providing a feature prop pick. Defending champions Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka are the US Open odds favorites at our best sports betting sites, with Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek breathing down their necks.
Let's see who ChatGPT backs to leave the Big Apple with arguably the most coveted championship in tennis.
🏆 Men's US Open odds 2025
Odds via FanDuel, one of our best sports betting apps.
| Name | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | +105 | 48.78% | $10.50 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +135 | 42.55% | $13.50 |
| Novak Djokovic | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Jack Draper | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Alexander Zverev | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Ben Shelton | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Taylor Fritz | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
| Jakub Mensik | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
🤖 2025 US Open AI picks & predictions for Flushing Meadows
The Billie Jean King National Tennis Center offers a historic backdrop for the culmination of the tennis season. With the stakes higher than the Empire State Building, ChatGPT, after a lengthier back-and-forth than you'll see in an Alcaraz vs. Sinner match, is here to provide its picks.
Before we get into the main course, it's time for the obligatory appetizer, the all-important yet rarely read disclaimer:
"Although there can be valuable insights and information gleaned from this exercise, ChatGPT should not be your primary tool when making US Open bets. It is a useful tool for a supplementary arsenal when placing your wagers."
🏆 ChatGPT's pick to win the US Open 2025 (men): Jannik Sinner
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel
Implied probability: 51.22%
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It's not exactly an outside-the-box choice, as ChatGPT has gone full chalk mode. Then again, who can blame it? Sinner has gradually swapped positions with Alcaraz, not only becoming the world no. 1 but also dominating proceedings at pretty much every tournament he enters.
Sinner is the US Open odds favorite entering play next week, and his odds at our best sports betting apps reflect the star's preeminent status.
But enough from me. What does our resident robot have to say about the Italian?
🧠 Why will Sinner win US Open?
- He’s the defending US Open champion and has already bagged two majors in 2025 (Australian Open and Wimbledon). That’s the clearest, highest-signal resume in the field right now
- Form and surface fit: Since returning from his spring layoff, Sinner’s hard-court level has been roaring back: he’s into the Cincinnati final this week, which we dive into in our Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz best bet, while looking locked in behind a dominant first serve and airtight baseline pattern. That skill mix translates well on the US Open’s medium-fast Laykold
- Big-match readiness: He out-managed Alcaraz to win at Wimbledon in July, a month after losing that epic five-setter in Paris. That's evidence he can absorb a brutal loss and immediately flip the script in the very next major. His resilience matters in a best-of-five.
- Matchups across the draw: Sinner’s weight of ball and backhand reliability against other top contenders usually tilts the long exchanges in his favor. On US hard courts, his serve-hold edge has been a separator versus peers this year, while his return numbers remain elite on ATP leaderboards.
🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐ (30% chance of winning per AI simulation)
🎯 ChatGPT's best long shot to win Wimbledon (men): Ben Shelton
Best odds: +2000 via Caesars
Implied probability: 4.76%
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Shelton won the National Bank Open in Canada, marking his first Masters 1000 triumph. While he ran out of gas in Cincinnati, Shelton is a formidable threat to anyone he faces.
However, he's been struggling mightily against Sinner (1-6) and Alcaraz (0-3), losing nine of 10 matches. Receiving the fourth-shortest odds to win the tournament, Shelton qualifies as a long shot due to his 22-to-1 odds.
🧠 Why Shelton is the long shot with title potential
- Lightning-rod form on hard courts: He just won his first Masters 1000 at the Canadian Open (Toronto), beating Karen Khachanov in a third-set tiebreak after taking out Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur. That kind of week can easily precede a surprise US Open run.
- Proven in New York: He already owns a US Open semifinal (2023), so the stage, night sessions, and crowd energy aren’t new to him.
- Serve plays up in NYC: He's among the tour’s top serve threats, and Shelton wins tiebreaks with first-strike patterns and can ride holds deep into sets. His Toronto final ended 7-6 in the third. He also won multiple third-set breakers earlier in the week.
- Seeding momentum: The Toronto title vaulted him toward the top-8 seed range, which typically protects a contender through week one (exact seed locks after the draw announcement on Aug 21).
🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8% chance of winning per AI simulation)
🏆 Women's US Open odds 2025
| Name | FanDuel | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | +280 | 26.32% | $28 |
| Iga Swiatek | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
| Coco Gauff | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Elena Rybakina | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
| Mirra Andreeva | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Naomi Osaka | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| Madison Keys | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Amanda Anisimova | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Victoria Mboko | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Emma Raducanu | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
🏆 ChatGPT's pick to win the US Open 2025 (women): Iga Swiatek
Best odds: +350 via FanDuel
Implied probability: 22.22%
Iga Swiatek is on a tear while gaining expansive ground on US Open odds favorite Aryna Sabalenka since her surprising, yet dominant Wimbledon triumph. Swiatek was getting a 9.09% chance of taking the US Open before winning at the All England Club. That win probability has more than doubled in the last five weeks.
Unsurprisingly, ChatGPT is backing the Pole, who won at Flushing Meadows in 2022.
🧠 Why will Swiatek win US Open?
- Peak form right now: She just won at Wimbledon, then rolled into the Cincinnati final without dropping a set, explicitly crediting an uptick in her serve, which is great timing heading into New York.
- Proven in Queens: Świątek already solved Flushing Meadows once (champion in 2022), so the stage and two-week grind aren’t unknowns.
- Surface fit and patterns: The US Open’s Laykold plays medium-fast. Her heavy, early-taking baseline game, plus the improved first-serve hold, give her multiple paths to win points on this surface.
🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐ (28% chance of winning per AI simulation)
🎯 ChatGPT's best long shot to win US Open (women): Naomi Osaka
Best odds: +1900 via FanDuel
Implied probability: 5%
Things haven't been easy for Osaka since returning to the tour. However, her confidence is back, and along with it, a version of her game that's inching ever-closer to Osaka's best. She's a four-time major winner and finished second at the National Bank Open in Montreal.
You can see why ChatGPT picked the veteran to secure her fifth major.
🧠 Why Osaka is the long shot with title potential
- Pedigree in Queens: She's a two-time US Open champion (2018, 2020) with a game tailor-made for Flushing Meadows: big first serve, first-strike forehand, and comfort under the lights. The medium-fast pace of Laykold’s rewards that style
- Real summer form: She just reached the Montreal WTA 1000 final, her best result in years, before falling to 18-year-old breakout champ Victoria Mboko. That week included top-tier shotmaking and match toughness
- Fresh legs, not a setback: Osaka withdrew from Cincinnati after the Montreal run—framed as scheduling, not injury—so she arrives in New York rested rather than compromised.
- Serve ceiling is back: Her 2025 tracking shows around seven aces per match and a solid first-serve platform, the exact tools that win tiebreaks and protect leads at the US Open.
🤖 AI confidence level: ⭐⭐⭐ (6% chance of winning per AI simulation)
💰 ChatGPT's best prop bet for US Open: Ben Shelton most aces
Best odds: TBD (odds at our best sportsbooks will be made available a few days before the tournament starts)
- Serve ceiling is elite & peaking now: He just won in Toronto (Masters 1000) while firing 16 aces in the final vs. Khachanov, which is exactly the kind of serving form that carries into NYC
- High ace volume over the season: Tracking from 2025 shows Shelton around nine aces per match, with strong hold/serve metrics. Those are the perfect ingredients for leading cumulative aces across a two-week Slam
- US Open conditions amplify first-strike tennis: Laykold at Flushing Meadows is set to medium-fast, which historically rewards big servers and produces hefty ace totals
- He should play enough matches to accumulate: Coming in as a top contender after a Masters title increases the likelihood of a deep run, which is key for topping the tournament ace chart (not just per-match)
- Historical context supports the angle: US Open ace leaders routinely rack up huge totals when a power server makes it to week two (see the tournament’s serving records)
🎾 US Open 2025 info
🗓️ Sun, 24 Aug 2025 – Sun, 7 Sept 2025
📍 Flushing Meadows (New York)
🏆 Sunday, Sept. 7 (Exact time TBD)
📈 Favorites; Jannik Sinner, Aryna Sabalenka
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