🏁 Wurth 400 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Texas

After a wreck-filled mess at Talladega redeemed only by a fan-favorite winner, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the Wurth 400, and I'm here to dish out my NASCAR predictions at Texas for this weekend's action.

Much like the Cup Series' midseason TV handoff from FOX to NBC, I'm taking the reins from our incumbent NASCAR expert, C Jackson Cowart, ahead of Saturday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1). We were on a roll last year with my NASCAR picks, and if recent history repeats itself with this race, we can expect an exciting overtime finish.

📈 NASCAR odds at Texas: Wurth 400

Latest NASCAR odds at BetMGM as of Friday, May 1; subject to change. Odds listed for drivers with +4000 odds or shorter, which is the realistic cutoff for a track like Texas.

💡 How to bet NASCAR at Texas

Texas Motor Speedway is a standard 1.5-mile high-speed intermediate. The venue compares favorably to Kansas and Las Vegas, tracks that saw Tyler Reddick (10 laps led) and Denny Hamlin (134 laps led) score victories, respectively. Hamlin also led 131 laps at Kansas before surrendering the lead late. 

Texas continues to move around the schedule, but the last three seasons have seen Las Vegas-Kansas-Texas, in some order, open the season as the first three high-speed intermediate events. Last year, the same driver led the most laps in all three events, winning one. The year before, the same driver led the most laps in two of three events, winning two.

That's why I'm targeting a consistent winner across those tracks with my best bet for Sunday's race - one who has already led laps at both of those previous tracks this year.

🏆 Best bet to win the Wurth 400

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing (No. 11)

• Denny Hamlin to win: +525 via BetMGM (1u)

Do you pick your top outright winner by trusting the driver, or do you pick by trusting the process? If you trust the driver, you should bet on Kyle Larson (+650 at DraftKings), who has led the most or second-most laps at Texas in the last three races. But if you trust the process, you should side with Hamlin (+525 at BetMGM). 

Hamlin fits the archetype described above - he enters Texas after having led the most laps at both Kansas and Las Vegas. Larson was the driver who defined that archetype in the last two seasons, but his No. 5 Chevrolet just hasn't been as dominant, while the Toyota camp is looking good early.    

There isn't much value on Hamlin down the board, but buying him to score a top 3 (+165 at Hard Rock) isn't a bad play. If you can't decide on Larson or Hamlin, betting on them both offers shaky value: +525 (16%) plus +650 (13.3%) gives you just under 30% implied probability on 5.6% of the field. 

🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets

This race should come down to Hamlin versus Larson. But as we've seen here recently, what should happen isn't always what actually happens, largely due to late-race cautions and other shenanigans. Let's talk about some drivers who should be good enough to capitalize on late-race chaos.

Ryan Preece, RFK Racing (No. 60)

• Ryan Preece to win: +6000 via DraftKings (0.13u)
• Ryan Preece top 10: +280 via DraftKings (0.87u)

The RFK Racing Fords were fast at Las Vegas and Kansas. Brad Keselowski finished 10th and sixth, respectively, while Chris Buescher finished sixth and 10th. Ryan Preece finished 11th in both events. With results like that, you'd expect all three drivers to have very similar odds. They don't.

Buescher (+2000 at BetMGM) and Keselowski (+2500) sport far shorter outright odds than Preece (+4000), who you can buy for as long as +6000 on DraftKings. The same holds for the top 10 markets, where Buescher and Keselowski are at about even while Preece is at ... +280 on DraftKings. That's worth taking advantage of.

Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing (No. 3)

• Austin Dillon to win: +15000 via BetMGM (0.07u)
• Austin Dillon top 10: +500 via FanDuel (0.43u)

There are few more chaotic drivers than Austin Dillon. But year-over-year, Dillon tends to exceed expectations at Texas. While he failed to score a top 10 at the first races at either Kansas or Las Vegas in the last two seasons, he managed to pull it off at Texas both years.

Despite Richard Childress Racing's well-documented struggles, Dillon was at least decent at both Kansas and Las Vegas this year. He finished 16th at Kansas (19th average green-flag speed) and 12th at Las Vegas (18th). He'll need some luck, but these odds are too long for a guy who often hangs around here - and who stole a win here in 2020.

💰 My NASCAR bets at Texas

Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the Wurth 400 with the best odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race at Texas.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 13.96 units

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Texas

Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at Texas in the Next Gen era:

The last three Texas winners did not win dominantly, in part due to the last two races going to overtime. The drivers who led the most laps in the last three races were Kyle Larson (May 2025, 90 laps led), Kyle Larson (April 2024, 77 laps led), and Bubba Wallace (Fall 2023, 111 laps led - just edging out Kyle Larson with 99 laps led).

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Texas: 2026 Wurth 400

• Date: Sunday, May 3
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Texas Motor Speedway (Fort Worth, Texas)
• TV: FS1
• Track: 1.5-mile high-speed intermediate (267 laps, 400.5 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (80 laps), Stage 2 (85 laps), final stage (102 laps)