NASCAR Predictions at Charlotte: 2025 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Odds & Expert Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday as the Round of 12 comes to a close in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. I’m here to discuss the NASCAR Cup Series odds for this weekend’s event, which is scheduled to get underway at 3 p.m. ET (USA).

Perhaps unsurprisingly, road course specialist Shane Van Gisbergen is a +100 betting favorite to win outright, but my Bank of America ROVAL 400 predictions have a longer-shot queued up.

---

📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Charlotte

Latest NASCAR odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

🥇 Bank of America ROVAL 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Shane van Gisbergen, +100 ($10 to win $10)
• Christopher Bell, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Kyle Larson, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
• Tyler Reddick, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• AJ Allmendinger, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Chase Elliott, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• William Byron, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• Chase Briscoe, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Ty Gibbs, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chris Buescher, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Michael McDowell, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Ross Chastain, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Alex Bowman, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
• Ryan Blaney, +4000 ($10 to win $400)

---

🏁 NASCAR predictions & preview at Charlotte

Road courses have belonged to Shane Van Gisbergen and the No. 88 team this year. After failing to deliver at the Circuit of the Americas, the Trackhouse Racing star won four road course races in a row, and most of those races were not close.

He led the most laps in all of them, including 97 of the 110 laps at Sonoma. However, he is no longer in the playoffs, and three other drivers – Austin Cindric, Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick – functionally must win or face elimination from the postseason.

The Charlotte Motor Speedway is unique on the NASCAR schedule as it is the only hybrid venue on the schedule now that the Brickyard 400 has returned. As a result, the results from other road courses are less predictive than usual. It makes the most sense to lean on a mix of general road course performance from this year and showings at this venue when handicapping events here, and such a process can only lead to one result.

 I predict A.J. Allmendinger will win the 2025 Bank of America ROVAL 400.

📈 NASCAR trends at Charlotte Motor Speedway

🏎️ Playoff drivers tend to run the show. Since the first race here in 2018, six of the seven winners were presently competing for a NASCAR championship. The lone exception: A.J. Allmendinger in 2023 for Kaulig Racing.

🏎️ Chevrolets have dominated here in the NextGen Era. Since the NextGen car debuted in 2022, a Chevrolet driver has led the most laps in each event: Chase Elliott in 2022 (30), Allmendinger in 2023 (46), and Kyle Larson in 2024 (62).

🏎️ Can anyone stop the Dinger? In the NextGen Era, A.J. Allmendinger has made three starts here, and he scored at least a top 10 in each race. No other driver has done the same. Tyler Reddick, with two top 10s and one 11th-place finish, came the closest.

---

🏆 Pick to win Bank of America ROVAL 400: A.J. Allmendinger (+1600) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Shane Van Gisbergen has dominated the road courses this year, A.J. Allmendinger has the far more impressive resume at this track – and a 44.2% difference in implied probability in his favor. SVG has never actually won here, while Allmendinger has one Cup Series win and four Xfinity Series wins. He may be in worse equipment, but that hasn’t stopped him from winning on road courses in the past.

When racing head-to-head here, Allmendinger has come out ahead of SVG both times. He beat him in last year’s Xfinity Series race by finishing second, while SVG finished third. He beat him in last year’s Cup Series race, too, by finishing sixth while SVG finished seventh. Of course, there are 36th other drivers on the entry list, but having an edge on the favorite at the venue in question is a meaningful needle-mover for me.

Allmendinger’s odds of +1600 (5.9% implied win probability) are pretty long, mainly because his No. 16 Chevrolet hasn’t shown race-winning speed at road courses this year. The same was true when he led 46 laps en route to a win here in 2023 – Allmendinger had led just 18 laps to that point in the season with only one top 10 at a road course. No driver has a better resume here, so with a $10 bet offering a $160 profit at DraftKings, how can you leave him off your card?

---

💎 Best value bet to win Bank of America ROVAL 400: Ross Chastain (+3000) ⭐⭐⭐

A key part of handicapping NASCAR races in the postseason is understanding the points system. Ross Chastain finds himself 13 points behind Joey Logano at the cut line. He is another 21 points behind Chase Briscoe, and then it’s a whopping 40 to William Byron thanks to wins from Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. If Logano scores enough stage points, it could be almost a win-or-go-home position for the No. 1 team, and we’ve seen Chastain stop at nothing to stave off elimination in the past.

While Chastain isn’t a road course specialist, we’ve seen him run well at these venues in the past, including a win at the Circuit of the Americas in 2022, along with another top 5 there as well as two more at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. The ROVAL hasn’t been as kind to him, but with SVG now full-time at Trackhouse Racing, the team’s road course program may have taken some significant strides thanks to the road course specialist’s feedback.

In what could be a do-or-die spot for Chastain, leaving him off your card at +3000 (3.2% implied win probability) odds that would turn a $10 bet into a $300 profit would be a mistake.

---

🎯 Best long shot to win Bank of America ROVAL 400: Austin Cindric (+5000) ⭐⭐⭐

Chastain could be in a win-or-go-home position during this race, but Austin Cindric already is in that spot. He finds himself 48 points below the cut line thanks to poor runs in the opening races of the round. Fortunately for him, Cindric has a background in road racing. He even competed at the Rolex 24 at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year. While he hasn’t posted even a top 10 at a road course this season, he finished fourth here a year ago.

Cindric may never have won here in the Xfinity Series, but he did put together some impressive runs. He scored three top 3s and an average finish of 3.5 – along with a pair of poles – from 2018 to 2021. I have some serious concerns about Team Penske’s road course program, but since Cindric needs to win this race to keep his season alive, a late-race hail mary could be in the cards.

If Cindric miraculously wins this race to make the Round of 8, you can turn a $500 profit on a $10 bet at BetMGM.

---

💰 Best NASCAR prop bet picks at Charlotte

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including NASCAR) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

---

🔥 Best prop bet for Bank of America ROVAL 400: Joey Logano Top 10 (+250) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With a 13-point gap to Ross Chastain, Joey Logano needs points. Neither Logano nor his No. 22 Ford has shown race-winning speed at a road course since (arguably) 2022, meaning his season may come down to posting a top 10 result on Sunday. Fortunately, Logano scored a top 10 at Sonoma and has three-straight top 15s at road courses. He also has six career top 10s here – the most among all active drivers – along with an average finish of 8.6.

The odds for Logano to finish in the top 10 vary widely across the market. You’ll find him as low as +140 (41.7% implied win probability) on DraftKings and as long as +250 (28.6%) at Hard Rock Bet. FanDuel has the next-best number at +230 (30.3%). The defending and three-time Cup Series champion isn’t a lock to post a top 10 result. Still, he certainly has a better shot to score one than the market would have you believe, especially given his precarious position in the points standings. With a $10 bet offering a $25 profit, I'm in.

---

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Bank of America ROVAL 400: Austin Cindric Top 3 (+1300) ⭐⭐

I don’t like many of the long-shot options to score top 10s this weekend. Instead, I recommend taking Austin Cindric to score a top 3. While watching him make the Round of 8 on a hail mary would make for a phenomenal watch, unfortunately, sometimes big plays come up short. If you’re already going to get some action on Cindric to deliver with a win, why not spread some of it here to provide yourself a second avenue?

Backing Cindric for a top 3 result at the ROVAL for +1300 (7.1% implied win probability) on FanDuel would score you a tidy $130 profit on a $10 bet ($120 if you throw another $10 on him to win outright). With most of the other NASCAR prop markets priced quite efficiently this weekend, I don’t love the idea of betting on a long-shot prop, but I don’t mind backing Cindric for a top 3 at this number.

---

🏆 Past Bank of America ROVAL 400 winners

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Charlotte

• The ROVAL isn’t like other road courses. Most road courses on the Cup Series are intentionally built and permanent venues. The ROVAL and the Chicago Street Course are the two exceptions, but there are meaningful differences between the two. In Chicago, drivers must deal with bumpy roads, and in Charlotte, they must navigate shifting between high-speed banking and low-speed corners. Draw primarily on past results here, not recent results at other road courses.
• The playoffs dictate strategy. Drivers who have locked themselves into the next round need only compete for wins (Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and, by the end of Stage 2, possibly a few other big names). Drivers who haven’t done so may need to compete for points, while still others may end up needing to win just to keep their season alive. Backing drivers in the former category to win may prove disappointing, especially if they choose to race conservatively.

---

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Charlotte: 2025 Bank of America ROVAL 400

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 5
• Start time: 3 p.m. ET
• Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: USA

---

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)