2025 NASCAR AI Picks at Richmond Today: ChatGPT's Full Predictions for Cook Out 400

We turned to ChatGPT to predict the winner of today's race at Richmond, including its best prop bets and full projected finishing order.
NASCAR AI Predictions at Richmond 2025: ChatGPT's Cook Out 400 Picks & Finishing Order Tonight
Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) wrecks after the finish of the race during the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. Photo by Peter Casey / Imagn Images.

Our NASCAR AI predictions correctly picked Shane van Gisbergen to win last week, our eighth trip to Victory Lane in the last 17 weeks (47.1%). We'll look to cash again tonight ahead of the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network).

We asked ChatGPT for its NASCAR at Richmond predictions based on historical data, betting odds, and statistical trends - including its pick to win, best prop bet, favorite long shot, and results for every driver for today's 38-car field.

Along with our 2025 Cook Out 400 predictions at Richmond, here are our AI-powered NASCAR best bets and full AI-simulated finishing order:

🏆 Best NASCAR bet to win at Richmond (Cook Out 400)

🏎️ Denny Hamlin

  • Racing team: No. 11 (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
  • Starting position: 4th
  • Best odds: +255 via Caesars ($10 to win $25.50)

✅ Why Denny Hamlin wins at Richmond

1. Elite short-track dominance
Hamlin is one of the most accomplished drivers ever at Richmond, with four career wins and over a dozen top-five finishes. His ability to conserve tires and manage long green-flag runs has consistently set him apart on this track. Richmond’s worn surface and strategy-heavy races align perfectly with his patient yet aggressive driving style.

2. Track-specific JGR strength
Joe Gibbs Racing has historically owned Richmond, with Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Christopher Bell all collecting strong results here over the past decade. The team’s Toyota setup excels on flat short tracks, especially in the Next Gen car, which puts Hamlin in one of the most optimized machines in the field. Starting inside the top five gives him immediate track position leverage.

3. Recent form and confidence
Hamlin’s 2025 season to this point has shown consistency on short tracks and intermediates, and Richmond is circled on his calendar as a must-win. Coming off a strong string of top-10s, his momentum is building. With his experience, pit crew sharpness, and the playoff push looming, Richmond is a natural spot for him to capitalize.

🔢 AI simulation for Denny Hamlin

  • Projected finish: 1st
  • Simulated odds to win: 31.5%
  • Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

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🎯 Best NASCAR prop bet at Richmond

🏎️ Tyler Reddick top-5 finish

  • Racing team: No. 45 (23XI Racing Toyota)
  • Starting position: 2nd
  • Best odds: +275 via bet365 ($10 to win $27.50)

✅ Why Tyler Reddick finishes top-5 at Richmond

1. Momentum and consistency
Reddick has shown excellent consistency on short tracks in 2025, regularly running inside the top 10 and converting solid qualifying into race results. His driving style - smooth but aggressive when needed - matches Richmond’s demands for tire management and rhythm through long green-flag runs.

2. Toyota's Richmond edge
Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing have historically excelled at Richmond, with multiple Toyota drivers finding victory lane here. The organization often hits on balance and tire wear better than Ford and Chevrolet, giving Reddick a car that should be capable of running at or near the front all race.

3. Starting track position
Beginning on the front row (P2) puts Reddick in prime position to control his race early. Richmond is notoriously difficult to pass on once tires settle, and his team can leverage clean air and pit cycles to keep him up front. Even if he doesn’t win, that track position alone makes a top-five finish a very realistic outcome.

🔢 AI simulation for Tyler Reddick

  • Projected finish: 4th
  • Simulated odds for top-5: 48.6%
  • Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5 out of 5 stars)

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🚀 Best NASCAR long shot at Richmond

🏎️ Ryan Preece

  • Racing team: No. 60 (RFK Racing Ford)
  • Starting position: 1st
  • Best odds: +1600 via BetMGM ($10 to win $160)

✅ Why Ryan Preece can win at Richmond

1. Track position advantage
Starting from the pole at Richmond is an enormous asset, especially for a driver looking to steal a win. Clean air and early control of the race can help Preece build confidence and settle into long green-flag runs. Even if he doesn’t have winning pace over 400 laps, track position gives him the ability to dictate strategy instead of chasing it.

2. RFK’s short-track gains
RFK Racing has made massive progress on short and flat tracks since the Next Gen car’s introduction. Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher have both scored victories on similar layouts, proving the team has found speed on these packages. Preece may not be the headline driver, but his car should benefit from that same technical edge.

3. Underdog’s shot with chaos potential
Richmond often turns into a strategy race, with green-flag pit cycles and tire management swinging the results. If cautions fall favorably or leaders mismanage pit sequences, an underdog like Preece could hold track position late. His aggressive style sometimes costs him, but in the right scenario, that aggression could help him seize control of the closing laps.

🔢 AI simulation for Ryan Preece

  • Projected finish: 14th
  • Simulated odds to win: 7.8%
  • Confidence rating: ⭐⭐ (2 out of 5 stars)

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🤖 NASCAR AI projections today

Here is our predicted Cook Out 400 finishing order and results for every driver based on AI projections. While ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that NASCAR bettors might overlook.

🏁 Projected finish order at Richmond

  1. Denny Hamlin (No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) 🥇
  2. Christopher Bell (No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) 🥈
  3. William Byron (No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) 🥉
  4. Tyler Reddick (No. 45, 23XI Racing Toyota)
  5. Kyle Larson (No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
  6. Ryan Blaney (No. 12, Team Penske Ford)
  7. Brad Keselowski (No. 6, RFK Racing Ford)
  8. Chase Elliott (No. 9, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
  9. Chris Buescher (No. 17, RFK Racing Ford)
  10. Joey Logano (No. 22, Team Penske Ford)
  11. Alex Bowman (No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
  12. Bubba Wallace (No. 23, 23XI Racing Toyota)
  13. Ross Chastain (No. 1, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
  14. Ryan Preece (No. 60, RFK Racing Ford)
  15. Shane van Gisbergen (No. 88, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
  16. Chase Briscoe (No. 19, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
  17. Kyle Busch (No. 8, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
  18. Michael McDowell (No. 71, Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)
  19. Ty Gibbs (No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
  20. A.J. Allmendinger (No. 16, Kaulig Racing Chevrolet)
  21. Daniel Suarez (No. 99, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
  22. Austin Cindric (No. 2, Team Penske Ford)
  23. Josh Berry (No. 21, Wood Brothers Racing Ford)
  24. Erik Jones (No. 43, Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
  25. Austin Dillon (No. 3, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
  26. Noah Gragson (No. 4, Front Row Motorsports Ford)
  27. Justin Haley (No. 7, Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)
  28. John Hunter Nemechek (No. 42, Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
  29. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 47, Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet)
  30. Zane Smith (No. 38, Front Row Motorsports Ford)
  31. Cole Custer (No. 41, Haas Factory Team Ford)
  32. Corey Heim (No. 67, 23XI Racing Toyota)
  33. Todd Gilliland (No. 34, Front Row Motorsports Ford)
  34. Riley Herbst (No. 35, 23XI Racing Toyota)
  35. Ty Dillon (No. 10, Kaulig Racing Chevrolet)
  36. Jesse Love (No. 33, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
  37. Cody Ware (No. 51, Rick Ware Racing Ford)
  38. Carson Hocevar (No. 77, Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)

💰 NASCAR AI picks for Richmond

Bet Driver Odds Implied win probability
🏆 Pick to win Denny Hamlin +255 28.17%
💰 Best prop bet Tyler Reddick (top-5) +275 26.67%
🎯 Best long shot Ryan Preece +1600 5.88%

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