Miami Grand Prix Predictions & Odds Today: Best F1 Picks, Miami GP Long Shot
Max Verstappen pulled off one of his show-stopping performances in qualifying, which injects some added excitement and fervor into today's race.
We bring you our Miami Grand Prix odds and predictions ahead of the race at Miami International Autodrome (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Lando Norris, the reigning Miami Grand Prix victor and our pick to win the race is receiving the shortest odds at our best sports betting sites despite being pipped by the Dutchman.
Meanwhile, Kimi Antonelli continues his exquisite rookie season as a teenager, taking third spot in qualifying. F1 Championship odds favorite Oscar Piastri will start in the second row after crossing the line with the fourth-fastest time.
👉 For more coverage, check out our 2025 Miami Grand Prix predictions and best bets.
🥇2025 Miami Grand Prix odds & favorites🥇
Miami Grand Prix odds via FanDuel as of Sunday, May 4.
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +145 | 40.82% | $14.50 |
| Max Verstappen | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Oscar Piastri | +270 | 27.03% | $27 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| George Russell | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Charles Leclerc | +7000 | 1.41% | $700 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +11000 | 0.90% | $1,100 |
| Carlos Sainz | +11000 | 0.90% | $1,100 |
| Alex Albon | +11000 | 0.90% | $1,100 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Esteban Ocon | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Jack Doohan | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Nick Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Isaak Hadjar | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
🔢 Miami Grand Prix odds movement
Updated betting action via FanDuel. Odds current as of Sunday, May 4.
- Norris and Piastri jockeyed for the top spot following qualifying with the former leading the latter entering raceday
- Verstappen saw his odds shorten considerably from +550 on Saturday to +175 in the hours before the race
- Leclerc was priced at +2300 on Saturday but saw his price balloon to +7000 as of this morning
💰 Miami Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Editor's note: Picks made on Monday, April 28. The odds below were as of that day and have not been updated. Please refer to the table above for updated Miami Grand Prix odds.
🏆 Pick to win Miami Grand Prix: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +150 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40%
After backing Piastri for his back-to-back Middle East wins, I'm flipping over to Norris.
While the Miami International Autodrome isn't as fast as the Jeddah Corniche Circuit, it still packs a lightning-quick punch. Like the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, the Miami Grand Prix is another street race, offering top speeds of 198 mph (320 km/h) and average speeds of 138 mph (223 km/h), about 17 mph slower than the Jeddah Corniche Circuit.
Speed favors McLaren, and it will do until the other cars bridge the performance gap.
It's also conducive to overtaking, with none of the first three races won by the polesitter. This could be the first, though, especially if McLaren wins qualifying.
While Piastri provides another solid bet, I'm going with the reigning winner, whose maiden F1 victory occurred in Miami last year. He was superb at this track in 2024 and raced well in Saudi Arabia, making up ground to finish fourth after a poor 10th in qualifying.
That race should help restore some lost confidence, and I feel this is the weekend Norris recaptures peak form.
Three of our best sports betting sites offer +150 odds for Norris to win, which would yield a $15 profit.
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💎 Best value bet to win Miami Grand Prix: Max Verstappen ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 14.29%
No matter how much he complains about his car, Verstappen offers a perennial threat to McLaren and their dynamic duo. After a comparatively poor race in Bahrain, where he finished sixth, the Dutchman turned it on in Saudi Arabia, even winning qualifying to take pole position.
Ultimately, he came up just short, finishing 2.843 seconds behind Piastri to finish second.
Verstappen won the first two races in Miami (2022, 2023) and finished second behind Norris last year. He thrives on this track and has some momentum he'll look to carry over from Saudi Arabia. The +600 odds offer excellent value, where a winning $10 bet will profit $60.
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🎯 Best long shot to win Miami Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +1900 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 5%
By now, I'm sure everyone has realized that a long-shot pick past Kimi Antonelli's +7500 odds is not worth making. Candidly, I'd make the cut-off at Lewis Hamilton, who is receiving +3500 at FanDuel. Even Hamilton has almost no chance of winning this race based on his form to start his first season at Ferrari.
Leclerc, however, is an entirely different kettle of fish. He gets better every race, inching his way to the top of the podium at a snail's pace, which is about how fast his Ferrari was going to start the season.
Car improvements and an uptick in his confidence level have him positioned to do some damage in Miami. Leclerc finished on the podium for the first time in Saudi Arabia, beating Norris to finish third. He's worth a go at +1900, an outlier at FanDuel. Those odds would return a $190 profit on a winning $10 bet.
🏆 Past Miami Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the Miami Grand Prix winners since the inaugural race in 2022.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇬🇧 Lando Norris | McLaren |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
📈 Miami Grand Prix trends & history
🏎️ The Miami Grand Prix has never been won from pole position
🏎️ The Miami Grand Prix debuted in 2022, with Verstappen winning
🏎️ The three previous races were won by Verstappen (2) and Norris (1)
🏎️ Norris is the reigning winner
🏎️ Verstappen won the 2024 sprint but finished the race in fifth
🏎️ Red Bull is the only team to finish 1-2 at the Miami Grand Prix
🏎️ Red Bull has recorded four podium finishes, the most of any team to date at the track
🏎️ There hasn't been a repeat polesitter, with Leclerc, Sergio Perez, and Verstappen winning qualifying
📺 How to watch the 2025 Miami Grand Prix
📅 Race date: Sunday, May 4
🕒 Start time: 4 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Miami International Autodrome (Miami)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
☀️ Weather: 86 degrees, 6 mph to 9 mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
❓ Miami Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Miami Grand Prix?
Lando Norris is the narrow favorite to win the Miami Grand Prix while getting +145 odds, which leads to an implied probability of 40.82%.
What are the odds for the Miami Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri (+155), Lando Norris (+180), and Max Verstappen (+470) are getting the shortest odds to win the Miami Grand Prix.
What time is the 2025 Miami Prix?
The Miami Grand Prix starts at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 4.
How to watch the 2025 Miami Grand Prix
You can watch the Miami Grand Prix on ESPN or ESPN+.
Who has won the most Miami Grand Prix races?
Entering its fourth year, Max Verstappen has won the Miami Grand Prix twice while Lando Norris won once.
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