Free Kentucky Derby Picks & Predictions 2025: Best Bet and Long Shot for Churchill Downs

Handicapping a 20-horse Kentucky Derby is like studying for a final exam that gets more complex the more you study, but we've made it a bit easier with our Kentucky Derby picks and predictions.

Journalism is the 3-1 betting favorite entering Saturday’s 151st Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., which is now down to 19 horses after Rodriguez and Grande - two of our favorite long shots - were scratched.

It's never easy building your wagers in a race that resembles a cavalry charge on steroids, but things are trickier perhaps now more than ever. However, despite Derby favorites enduring a six-race slump, there are certain benchmarks every winner of America’s most celebrated horse race usually meets when the 151st Kentucky Derby begins Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET (NBC).

So who are the likely candidates to meet those benchmarks and how? We examine why Journalism should write a good story as the Kentucky Derby odds favorite, who makes a good sidebar on your tickets, and why certain numbers give you the best chance to ace your betting final with Kentucky Derby long shots.

👉 Our Kentucky Derby AI predictions project the full finish order for Saturday's race.

🏇 Latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025

Here's a look at the updated Kentucky Derby post positions and the latest live odds from FanDuel Racing for the 2025 Kentucky Derby after Rodriguez (No. 4) was scratched from Saturday's race.

Check out our breakdown of the Kentucky Derby odds and betting lines and the Kentucky Derby post positions.

💰 Kentucky Derby picks & predictions

⭐ Kentucky Derby favorite: Journalism (+300)

When you look at the entire field in total, then look at this California import specifically, it’s easy to understand why he is the morning-line favorite. His running style, speed, and adaptability to adversity makes Journalism a no-brainer favorite.

The son of Curlin, with noted distance sire Uncle Mo as his grandsire, hasn’t lost a race since Oct. 27, when he finished third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita by less than three lengths. He comes into the Churchill Downs gate with three consecutive stakes victories - all around two turns - and has already beaten fellow Derby entrants Rodriguez and Citizen Bull, the reigning 2-year-old Champion.

All you needed to see to validate Journalism’s favorite status here was the end of the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, when he not only prevailed by less than a length via a furious rally, but galloped out like he had more in the tank.

🎯 Best Kentucky Derby long shot: Baeza (+1200)

I'll admit it. I was hoping this $1.2 million, first-crop son of four-time Grade 1-winner McKinzie found his way into the Derby 151 field, which he did Thursday via the scratch of another one of our long-shot darlings - Rodriguez.

But this is an example of turning lemons into lemonade, because Baeza has a better chance of winning than Rodriguez did. A maiden winner in his four races (4-2-1-0), he brings the same speed caliber, illustrated by his 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 12.6-second final furlong racked up in his runner-up finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. After seizing the lead in the stretch, Baeza led that race until the final sixteenth, anointing him as the closest threat to Derby-favorite Journalism in the field.

The irony here is that runner-up finish would have put Baeza in the field before this year. But Churchill Downs instituted a rule cutting the number of Derby qualifying points in any prep race fielding fewer than six horses. With that second-place finish in a five-horse field bringing 37.5 points instead of 50, Baeza and his connections were forced to bide their time and hope for attrition.

Attrition came - and we’re glad to see Baeza, his ability to handle 10 furlongs, and his stalking running style enter Gate 20 - the far outside. That’s the same gate that 80-1 shot Rich Strike - another 11th-hour entry - sprung from three years ago en route to his burp-in-the-universe victory. And Baeza, the half-brother of 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes and Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch, is a far better horse.

That stalking running style should travel well from that gate. Baeza can cruise inside as the cavalry charges inside of him and jockeys for position. Yes, there’s the concern he loses ground coming into the first turn. But with a fast expected pace, Baeza has plenty of time to make up that ground and begin picking off tired horses in the second turn and stretch.

Need more convincing? Flavien Prat - one of North America’s top jockeys - turned over the reins of his previous mount (Neoequos) to take Baeza’s reins. Between Prat’s intelligence and savvy and the patient guidance of underrated trainer John Shirreffs, who won this race 20 years ago with 50-1 Giacomo, we can’t wait to get Baeza on our tickets. And neither should you.

Check out our top sites for Kentucky sports betting.

🥇 Our pick to win: Journalism

We’ll get Journalism’s flaws out of the way early. First, a Derby favorite hasn’t prevailed since Justify in 2018. Second, Journalism hasn’t faced much competition in what has been a winter of small fields in California that included a five-horse Santa Anita Derby. Then again, none of these horses have faced the 20-horse free-for-all that awaits them Saturday.

The nits sufficiently picked, you’re looking at the most complete horse in Derby 151. 

Speed? Journalism’s score in March’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita came with the fastest Beyer Speed Figure (108) in the field. His victory in the Santa Anita Derby a month later came not only on a slow track, but came with the second-fastest final-furlong time (12.3 seconds) in the Derby field, trailing only Final Gambit’s 11.9-second clocking that came on synthetic. It also came with a troubled trip that mandated jockey Umberto Rispoli navigate blocking and bumping, which he did en route to a three-quarters length victory.

Running style? Journalism is a stalker, meaning Rispoli will have him off the lead pack of speed horses, but ahead of the closers and deep closers. That style is perfect for Derbies and perfect for this one, which promises on paper to be a fast pace. Expect Rispoli to have Journalism in a prime position to pounce with a quarter-mile left. From there, Journalism’s distance-rich pedigree and athletic gait should do the rest. 

Unlike many of the recent Derby favorites, Journalism figures to write a story with a happier ending. It’s not fake news to consider him the class of this Derby field.

🔮 Kentucky Derby expert picks

• Kentucky Derby AI predictions
• Kentucky Derby long shots
• Kentucky Derby odds and favorites

📺 How to watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby

📅 Saturday, May 3
🕕 6:57 p.m. ET
📍 Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
📺 NBC | 🛜 Peacock | 📲 NBC Sports App

📰 Kentucky Derby betting news

• FanDuel launches Pennsylvania casino jackpots ahead of Kentucky Derby
• FanDuel adds new promos for 2025 Kentucky Derby
• FanDuel TV to broadcast all Kentucky Derby preparation races
• FanDuel announce Shaboozey as headline act at Kentucky Derby party
• Kentucky sportsbook wagers down month-over-month in February
• Kentucky pari-mutuel betting handle drops in December

🧠 Kentucky Derby betting strategies

One thing to understand when constructing your tickets is understanding the endless list of variables to contemplate in a 20-horse Derby field. The countless scenarios that could transpire in a 10-furlong free-for-all means the only guarantees usually center around who can’t win - rather than who can.

Scratching off horses like Coal Battle, Owen Almighty, Chunk of Gold, Neoequos, Render Judgment, and Admire Daytona because they don’t hit the threshold of a 95 Beyer Speed Figure is always a good starting point, because horses bringing in Beyers in the 80s or low 90s simply don’t have the speed to contend in a Derby. When Mystik Dan won last year at 18-1, he became the 28th cashable Derby winner in the last 33 years to bring in at least a 95 Beyer to the Churchill Downs starting gate.

From there, find longshots and value horses (like Tiztastic, Luxor Cafe, and Baeza) who may not win, but have the potential to find the board and boost your exotic bets. Building a winning exacta (picking the top two horses), trifecta (top three finishers) or superfecta (top four) ticket means finding value down the toteboard.

Why is it important to find those down-ticket nuggets. Because there’s gold in those nuggets. Aside from the fact a favorite hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018, with Authentic in the pandemic Derby of 2020 being the only single-digit odds winner at 9-1 in that time, finding those double-digit sleepers is the best way to wake up your tickets. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid a healthy $1,113.84. The $1 superfecta brought you $8,254.

While strong, those aren’t life-changing numbers. For that, go to 2022, when 80-1 Rich Strike pulled off his half-mile slalom for the ages, stealing the Derby in the final 50 yards and bringing home mind-bending payouts. A $2 exacta with second-place finisher Epicenter paid $4,101.20. A $1 trifecta paid $14,870.70, and the $1 superfecta paid a cool $321,500.10.

Even having a favorite come home can produce eye-watering tickets if you’ve got the right horses underneath in an exacta, trifecta or superfecta. In 2018, Justify’s victory headlined a $142 trifecta. But when 90/1 Instilled Regard sneaked into fourth, superfecta bettors cashed tickets for $19,619.

The year before, 9-2 Always Dreaming won Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher his second Derby. But savvy ticket holders putting 33-1 Looking at Lee and 40-1 Battle of Midway underneath cashed at $16,594.40 payday on their $2 trifecta. Classic Empire, the third-favorite at 6-1, brought home a $75,974.50 windfall on a $1 superfecta.

You get the picture. Now, how do you build those tickets?

First, once you’ve winnowed the field, find your key horses and put them across your tickets. Then, start looking at closers, and not just because this year’s pace could set up for one.

According to handicapper Mike Shutty, a closer with odds of 10-1 or higher has found the superfecta 11 consecutive years. And in 10 of 11 years, closers made up two of the four superfecta spots. Finally, 11 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four since 2012.

📈 Kentucky Derby trends and stats

Why do we put so much emphasis on speed, both tactical and practical? Because the numbers show that closing speed is a predictor of Derby success. Track publicist and former turf writer Jenny Rees came up with the Final Fractions Theory, which theorizes that horses who run the last eighth of a mile of their last prep race under 13 seconds and/or the last three-eights in under 38 seconds have the speed necessary to win a modern Derby.

The numbers back that up, with 18 of 24 Derby winners since 2000 running a sub-13-second final furlong and 31 of the last 38 - including Mystik Dan last year - cracking 38 seconds for three furlongs in their final prep. That figure includes 16 of 24 this century.

This year, eight horses check the sub-13-second box and seven the sub-38-second box. The seven who check both boxes: Final Gambit, Journalism, Sovereignty, Grande, Rodriguez, Flying Mohawk, and Luxor Café.

Let’s cull the herd further by looking at another speed barometer: Beyer Speed Figures. They’re not always the final arbiter for any race, much less a 20-horse Derby. But they do provide a reliable guide to winnow the field, since horses with a sub-90 Beyer as their top figure are easy eliminations. They lack the speed necessary to win a Derby. Conversely, 11 of the last 14 Derby champions had a Beyer of 100 or greater on their CV coming into the Derby.

That doesn’t take much parsing here. The only two horses with triple-digit Beyers are Journalism (who has two: a 108 and a 102) and Rodriguez (101). Let’s bring in one last barometer. In 1999, former turf writer and longtime morning line writer for Santa Anita and Del Mar, Jon White devised his Derby Strikes System. He gave “strikes” to horses based on a failure to reach a benchmark in one of eight categories. The more strikes, the less chance a horse has of wearing roses. White has always considered one category first among equals: the eighth-pole category. Was a horse first or second with a furlong to go in either of his final two starts before the Derby? The last two winners: Mystik Dan and Mage–while closers–checked those boxes. Mystik Dan led by two lengths with a furlong to go, Mage was second.

The reason White is so bullish on this barometer? He said 58 of the last 61 Derby champions checked that box. Five horses in this year’s field flunk that test: Burnham Square, Sovereignty, Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk, and Publisher.

How do all these numbers translate into expected pace? Since the point system was instituted in 2013, Derbies have followed two different pace scenarios. After closer Orb won the 2013 Derby, horses with front-end speed or stalkers captured the next eight. That included eventually disqualified winners Maximum Security (2019) and Medina Spirit (2021). In fact, 11 of the last 15 winners were running in the front half of the field at the half-mile mark.

But in the last three Derbies, it’s been the Revenge of the Closer, with Rich Strike (2022), Mage (2023) and Mystik Dan (last year) all seizing on an early incendiary pace to close in the final sixteenth. All three weren’t close to the lead at the half-mile mark, yet all three capitalized on fast opening fractions to pass tired opponents.

If you think that’s in the forecast this year, your go-tos are Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Sandman and, if you want to take a flier, Tiztastic. We’ve always been partial to stalkers: horses that stalk the pace, then turn it on in the final quarter to three-eighths. That includes favorite Journalism, Baeza, and Grande, with only the first two set to race on Saturday.

🎟️ How to bet on horse racing

Some other general strategies to consider for your Kentucky Derby picks that apply in general when betting on horse racing include:

• Understanding the basics: Horse racing offers a variety of betting options, but the most common bet is to pick a horse to win, place, or show. A "win" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, a "place" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first or second, and a "show" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, second, or third. Additionally, you can bet on multiple horses in different combinations, such as exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) or trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Handicapping the race: Before placing your bets, it's important to do some research and analyze the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Look at factors such as recent form, speed figures, class level, and how well the horse has performed on similar track surfaces and distances. You can also consider factors like post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.

Placing your bets: Once you've done your research and identified potential winners, it's time to place your bets. Head to the betting window or use a betting app to place your wagers. Be sure to specify the type of bet you're making (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse's program number, and the amount you want to wager. Double-check your bet slip before confirming to ensure accuracy

💵 Best Kentucky Derby betting sites

Want to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Here are the top-rated Kentucky Derby betting sites and the best sportsbook promos for Saturday's race:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
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