Kentucky Derby Odds & Favorites Today: Journalism the Favorite After Rodriguez, Grande Scratched

The 2025 Kentucky Derby takes place today at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky, and with more than 150,000 fans expected to turn the famed track into a racing, wagering, and partying haven, all eyes are on the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.

Journalism opened as the 3-1 betting favorite when Kentucky Derby odds were released at FanDuel Racing. It's worth noting that no favorite has won the race since Justify did so in 2018. Maximum Security crossed the finish line first in the following year’s Run for the Roses but was disqualified for interference.

If you can’t make it to Louisville on Saturday, NBC will bring you everything from handicapping to hats. The post time is approximately 6:57 p.m. ET, so study up on the Kentucky Derby horses while you can.

👉 Our Kentucky Derby AI predictions project the full finish order for Saturday's race.

🏇 Kentucky Derby odds & post positions

Here are the Kentucky Derby morning line odds via FanDuel Racing, along with the latest Kentucky Derby post positions for the 2025 Run for the Roses after Rodriguez (No. 4) and Grande (No. 10) were scratched from Saturday's race.

💰 Who's favored to win the Kentucky Derby?

🏇 Journalism (3-1)

This stalking progeny of standout sire Curlin is a no-brainer favorite, and it doesn’t require a lot of parsing or deep thinking to understand why. All you have to do is watch his solid, rally-from-adversity victory in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, where he came from last at the half-mile post, overcame bumping and blocking, and rallied to win in the final sixteenth. Then, as if to send a message to his rivals, Journalism galloped out strongly, showing he has more in the tank.

That was Journalism’s third consecutive stakes victory and it came not only on a slow track, but came with the second-fastest final-furlong time (12.3 seconds) in the Derby field, trailing only Final Gambit’s 11.9-second clocking that came on synthetic. He owns the two fastest Beyer Speed Figures (a 108 in the San Felipe Stakes and a 102 in the Santa Anita Derby).

Finally, Journalism’s stalking style and tactical speed should keep him close enough to the speed horses and keep him ahead of the closers and deep closers. He is simply the most complete horse in the field. It's why we also expect Journalism to top the Triple Crown odds.

🎯 Best Kentucky Derby long shot

🏇 Luxor Cafe (15-1)

We get teased by Japanese horses every year, but one of these years, a Japanese horse will win the Kentucky Derby. It almost happened last year with Forever Young, who finished third in a photo finish to Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone. 

Now, meet the latest Great Eastern Hope in this American Pharoah horse. And while the progeny of the 2015 Triple Crown winner haven’t blown up Triple Crown odds races, Luxor Cafe has shown the speed necessary to be a factor in this Derby. He comes in riding a four-race winning streak, recently capped with a resounding, five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes that featured a scintillating 36.5-second final three furlongs. 

Luxor Cafe has won twice on left-hand turn tracks, and his off-the-pace stalker style should travel well - emphasis on "travel." Can Luxor Cafe take his considerable speed to the U.S.? Not every Japanese invader can. While he’s not as strong as Forever Young, who raced in the Middle East against American horses (thus providing a gauge on his ability), Luxor Cafe beat the other Japanese horse in the field - Admire Daytona - twice.

And Admire Daytona came back to win the UAE Derby. Throw all of this in the hopper, and even if you can’t get past betting a Japanese horse to win America’s most prized race, get Luxor Cafe everywhere else on your exotic wagers.

👉 Check out our best Kentucky Derby long shots ahead of Saturday's race.

❌ Kentucky Derby pick to avoid

🏇 Citizen Bull (20-1)

We’ll put aside the no-hopers, such as Owen Almighty, Neoequos and East Avenue and concentrate on the other Baffert horse in the field: one who boasts a CV that - combined with his lofty odds and Hall of Fame trainer - may tempt you to go all-in.

Don’t.

While it’s tempting to bet any Baffert horse in a Derby - especially when he’s the reigning Champion 2-year-old - we’re bearish on Citizen Bull.  First, he’s likely a need-the-lead horse who has shown that his best races come when he gets the lead and can set a comfortable pace. With other speed horses like American Promise and the aforementioned trio, that isn’t happening here.

Second, Citizen Bull showed a dramatic lack of stamina in his last prep: the Santa Anita Derby, when he faded badly and finished a distant fourth - nearly 10 lengths behind winner Journalism. His final furlong time (14.2 seconds) isn’t competitive in a Derby field.

As you ask yourself why a Baffert horse is 20-1, we’ll close with this: Citizen Bull is starting from the rail, a position that hasn’t sent a colt to the winner’s circle since Ferdinand in 1986.

  👉 Our Kentucky Derby picks analyze the much-anticipated event at Churchill Downs.  

❌ Kentucky Derby scratches

Here are the horses who were scratched from the 151st Kentucky Derby, with Baeza entering the field.

• Rodriguez (Bob Baffert), Post 4
• Grande (Todd Pletcher), Post 10

📺 How to watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby

📅 Saturday, May 3
🕕 6:57 p.m. ET
📍 Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
📺 NBC | 🛜 Peacock | 📲 NBC Sports App

📰 Kentucky Derby betting news

• FanDuel launches Pennsylvania casino jackpots ahead of Kentucky Derby
• FanDuel adds new promos for 2025 Kentucky Derby
• FanDuel TV to broadcast all Kentucky Derby preparation races
• FanDuel announce Shaboozey as headline act at Kentucky Derby party
• Kentucky sportsbook wagers down month-over-month in February
• Kentucky pari-mutuel betting handle drops in December

🧠 Kentucky Derby betting strategies

One thing to understand when constructing your tickets is understanding the endless list of variables to contemplate in a 20-horse Derby field. The countless scenarios that could transpire in a 10-furlong free-for-all means the only guarantees usually center around who can’t win - rather than who can.

Scratching off horses like Coal Battle, Owen Almighty, Chunk of Gold, Neoequos, Render Judgment, and Admire Daytona because they don’t hit the threshold of a 95 Beyer Speed Figure is always a good starting point. When Mystik Dan won last year at 18-1, he became the 28th cashable Derby winner in the last 33 years to bring in at least a 95 Beyer to the Churchill Downs starting gate.

From there, find longshots and value horses (like Tiztastic, Luxor Cafe, and Baeza) who may not win, but have the potential to find the board and boost your exotic bets. Building a winning exacta (picking the top two horses), trifecta (top three finishers) or superfecta (top four) ticket means finding value down the toteboard.

Why is it important to find those down-ticket nuggets? Because there’s gold in those nuggets. Aside from the fact a favorite hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018, with Authentic in the pandemic Derby of 2020 being the only single-digit odds winner at 9-1 in that time, finding those double-digit sleepers is the best way to wake up your tickets. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid a healthy $1,113.84. The $1 superfecta brought you $8,254.

While strong, those aren’t life-changing numbers. For that, go to 2022, when 80-1 Rich Strike pulled off his half-mile slalom for the ages, stealing the Derby in the final 50 yards and bringing home mind-bending payouts. A $2 exacta with second-place finisher Epicenter paid $4,101.20. A $1 trifecta paid $14,870.70, and the $1 superfecta paid a cool $321,500.10.

Even having a favorite come home can produce eye-watering tickets if you have the right horses underneath in an exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. In 2018, Justify’s victory headlined a $142 trifecta. But when 90/1 Instilled Regard sneaked into fourth, superfecta bettors cashed tickets for $19,619.

The year before, 9-2 Always Dreaming won Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher his second Derby. But savvy ticket holders putting 33-1 Looking at Lee and 40-1 Battle of Midway underneath cashed at $16,594.40 payday on their $2 trifecta. Classic Empire, the third-favorite at 6-1, brought home a $75,974.50 windfall on a $1 superfecta.

You get the picture. Now, how do you build those tickets?

First, once you’ve winnowed the field, find your key horses and put them across your tickets. Then, start looking at closers, and not just because this year’s pace could set up for one.

According to handicapper Mike Shutty, a closer with odds of 10-1 or higher has found the superfecta 11 consecutive years. And in 10 of 11 years, closers made up two of the four superfecta spots. Finally, 11 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four since 2012.

📈 Kentucky Derby trends and stats

Why do we put so much emphasis on speed, both tactical and practical? Because the numbers show that closing speed is a predictor of Derby success. Track publicist and former turf writer Jenny Rees came up with the Final Fractions Theory, which theorizes that horses who run the last eighth of a mile of their last prep race under 13 seconds and/or the last three-eights in under 38 seconds have the speed necessary to win a modern Derby.

The numbers back that up, with 18 of 24 Derby winners since 2000 running a sub-13-second final furlong and 31 of the last 38 - including Mystik Dan last year - cracking 38 seconds for three furlongs in their final prep. That figure includes 16 of 24 this century.

This year, eight horses check the sub-13-second box and seven the sub-38-second box. The seven who check both boxes: Final Gambit, Journalism, Sovereignty, Grande, Rodriguez, Flying Mohawk and Luxor Café.

Let’s cull the herd further by looking at another speed barometer: Beyer Speed Figures. They’re not always the final arbiter for any race, much less a 20-horse Derby. But they do provide a reliable guide to winnow the field, since horses with a sub-90 Beyer as their top figure are easy eliminations. They lack the speed necessary to win a Derby. Conversely, 11 of the last 14 Derby champions had a Beyer of 100 or greater on their CV coming into the Derby.

That doesn’t take much parsing here. The only two horses with triple-digit Beyers are Journalism (who has two: a 108 and a 102) and Rodriguez (101).

Since the point system was instituted in 2013, Derbies have followed two different pace scenarios. After closer Orb won the 2013 Derby, horses with front-end speed or stalkers captured the next eight. That included eventually disqualified winners Maximum Security (2019) and Medina Spirit (2021). In fact, 11 of the last 15 winners were running in the front half of the field at the half-mile mark.

But in the last three Derbies, it’s been the Revenge of the Closer, with Rich Strike (2022), Mage (2023) and Mystik Dan (last year) all seizing on an early incendiary pace to close in the final sixteenth. All three weren’t close to the lead at the half-mile mark, yet all three capitalized on fast opening fractions to pass tired opponents.

If you think that’s in the forecast this year, your go-tos are Sovereignty, Burnham Square and Sandman. We’ve always been partial to stalkers: horses that stalk the pace, then turn it on in the final quarter to three-eighths. That includes favorite Journalism and fill-in Baeza, one of our favorite long shots.

🔢 How to read horse racing odds

Horse racing odds are usually shown in fractional form (like 5-1, pronounced "five to one"). They illustrate:

• How much you can win compared to your bet
• The horse’s implied chance of winning

How to understand them

• 5-1 odds mean you win $5 for every $1 bet, plus you get your $1 back
• Example: Bet $10 at 5-1. If the horse wins, you profit $50 and get your $10 bet returned - totaling $60
• Even money is listed as 1-1 or sometimes just "even," meaning you win the same amount you bet
• Lower odds (like 2-1 or 3-2) mean the horse is more favored - and pays less because it’s seen as more likely to win
• Higher odds (like 20-1) mean a long shot - you win more if the horse wins, but it's less likely

❓ Kentucky Derby FAQs

Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby 2025?

Americans can legally wager on horse racing in the following states:

Kentucky sports betting is up and running, so Kentucky horse racing fans should be able to bet from anywhere in the state for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. You can also check out our list of the best Kentucky Derby betting sites here!

Canadians can bet on the Kentucky Derby at bet365.

Who is the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite?

Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (5-1) are the betting favorites to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

How long is the Kentucky Derby track?

The race distance for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.

When is the 2025 Kentucky Derby this year?

The 2025 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 3.

Where is the 2025 Kentucky Derby held?

The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

💵 Best Kentucky Derby betting sites

Want to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Here are the top-rated Kentucky Derby betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos ahead of the 2025 Run for the Roses:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
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