Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Best Bet Today: Cincinnati Final Expert Predictions, Picks & Odds

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, winners of the last seven men's Grand Slams, square off in another final this afternoon.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: August 18, 2025 12:58 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction Today: Cincinnati Final Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds — Pictured: Carlos Alcarez sprints to a shot as we make our Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcarez prediction. Photo by Jay Calderon / The Desert Sun via USA TODAY NETWORK.

Men's tennis' most dominant players meet in the Cincinnati Masters final this afternoon, and my Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction highlights my best bets ahead of their 14th meeting.

Sinner beat Alcaraz in last month's Wimbledon final, his first victory over the Spaniard in the previous six matches. The Italian, who has won 26 hardcourt matches on the bounce, heads into the 3 p.m. ET (Tennis Channel) final as the betting favorite at the best sports betting sites.

While the difference between the irrepressible champions is almost negligible, I agree with the oddsmakers, as my Cincinnati Masters picks back the betting favorite.

🎾 Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction & best bet

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best tennis odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Pick to win: Sinner ML (-165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Over 22.5 games (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️

📊 Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds: Cincinnati Open final 2025

Latest Cincinnati Open odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.

Player	Odds to win	Probability
Carlos Alcaraz	+165	37.74%
Jannik Sinner	-200	66.67%

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🏆 Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz expert pick to win

✅ Sinner ML ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -165 via BetMGM ($10 to win $6.60)
🔢 Implied probability: 62.26%

While "dominance" is often thrown around as often as a tennis player tossing the ball during service, Alcaraz and Sinner are the living embodiment of the word.

The pair have won the last seven majors, with Sinner taking four. Alcaraz has advanced to the final in six straight tournaments, with Monday's outing the third in the previous four against his Italian adversary.

Sinner not only carries a 26-match win streak on hard courts into the final, but he's also won 12 straight overall. Despite Alcaraz taking five of the previous six meetings, Sinners' winning streaks provide a razor-thin edge.

The importance of Sinner getting over the hump at Wimbledon cannot be overstated, as it proved he could beat Alcaraz on grass while immediately making up for his implosion during the French Open final.

If I'm nitpicking, which I'm forced to do in a head-to-head matchup with such slender margins, Alcaraz can fleetingly lose concentration. Sinner, at least lately, does not. There are no mental lapses from the lanky Italian, who's as relentless as he is unerring in critical moments.

While I disagree with Sinner getting such short odds at our best sports betting apps, I can't swim upstream considering his recent perfection. I backed Sinner at Wimbledon, and at least currently, he's the ever-so slightly better option.

💰 Best Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz prop bet

✅ Over 22.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -122 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.20)
🔢 Implied probability: 54.95%

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Four of their previous six meetings between these two went the distance, two of which were five-set classics at Roland-Garros. I backed over 40.5 games ahead of the Wimbledon final, which agonizingly ended at 40.

If just one of those sets went to a tiebreaker, the bet would have cashed. This is my chance at redemption. Two of the previous three-set matches between Sinner and Alcaraz went to a third and decisive set, both of which exceeded the 23-game threshold.

While a straight-sets win is a possibility, I can't envision one being lopsided. Either a three-set match or a nip-and-tuck two-setter will be enough. Alcaraz will get a boost from added motivation after losing at Wimbledon, while Sinner wants nothing more than to carry a 27-game win streak into the US Open.

As an aside, Sinner is the US Open odds favorite right now.

FanDuel's -122 odds are the longest of our best sportsbooks. DraftKings offers -130 and BetMGM is posting -145. Caesars (+105) and bet365 (-110) are setting the total at 23.5. While there's potential extra value in those bets, I'm opting for a slight buffer.

📺 How to watch Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Cincinnati Open final 2025

📍 Date: Monday, Aug. 18
🕘 Time: 3 p.m. ET
🏟️ Location: Lindner Family Tennis Center (Cincinnati)
📡 How to watch: Tennis Channel (USA), TSN (Canada)

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.