2024 Cook Out Southern 500 Expert Picks, Predictions: NASCAR Betting Odds for Darlington

The NASCAR playoff field will be set tonight in the regular-season finale at 6 p.m. ET, as we examine the NASCAR raceday odds at Darlington Raceway and offer our 2024 Cook Out Southern 500 expert picks and predictions.

Kyle Larson is the raceday favorite to win tonight's 500-mile race and remains the front-runner by the latest NASCAR Cup Series championship odds to win his first title since 2021.

He's followed closely by Tyler Reddick, who enters tonight atop the standings with a chance to clinch the regular-season championship behind a strong showing at "The Track Too Tough to Tame."

NASCAR odds at Darlington

(Darlington raceday odds via our best sports betting sites as of Sunday at noon ET.  | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

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2024 Southern 500 expert picks, predictions

NASCAR picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Toyota to win (+135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Denny Hamlin to win (+750 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Bubba Wallace to win (+1600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Bubba Wallace top five (+250 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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How to bet NASCAR at Darlington

"The Track Too Tough to Tame" has earned its reputation as NASCAR's toughest circuit with its narrow straightaways and abrasive surface that chews through tires for 400 miles.

There's a reason only eight active drivers have ever won at Darlington, and only four have done so twice after Brad Keselowski's win in May. But nobody has won here more than Denny Hamlin, who leads our bet slip for raceday.

Hamlin's final stand

The winningest driver to never win it all has already punched his ticket to the NASCAR playoffs. But he needs a win more than any contender in the field.

Last week, Denny Hamlin (+750) and the No. 11 team were hit with a critical L2 penalty that erased nearly half of Hamlin's playoff points, so he could surely use a win at the track where he's claimed four victories - doublling any other active driver.

He led 177 laps and swept both stages in last year's Southern 500, which followed a P2 and a victory in the two years prior. He took fourth in the spring race at "The Lady in Black," where Hamlin's expert sense of tire management could help him secure his fourth checkered flag of the year in the regular-season finale.

Can Wallace lock up playoff spot?

Bubba Wallace (+1600) has endured a frustrating season to this point, but he's been one of the fastest cars in the field over the back half of the season.

The No. 23 car finished sixth last week at Daytona for his third top-six result in the last five weeks. He showcased that speed in Saturday's qualifying to claim his first pole of the season.

That track position matters even more at Darlington, where managing tire wear is paramount and passing lanes are tough to come by. Wallace qualified eighth in the spring race here and finished seventh - his fourth straight top-10 finish at this track.

His previous best qualifying was second at Martinsville, and he posted a season-best P4 in that race. He'll be gunning for a win to clinch a postseason spot - and he's dealing at 16/1 via BetMGM to do so - but I especially like his chances of running near the front when the checkered flag drops.

Best long shots at Darlington

This isn't really the race to bet long shots, given that just eight active drivers have won at this difficult track. But when it coincides with the last chance to secure a playoff berth, all hell could break loose.

That has me targeting a few capable drivers who still need a win to lock up their spot in the playoffs.

Ty Gibbs (+2500)

Gibbs is at the top of that list after finishing second with 34 laps led in the spring race at Darlington. He's coming back-to-back top-five finishes at Daytona and Michigan as he tries to race his way off the playoff bubble.

With two of our best sportsbooks offering him at +1600, these long-shot odds via DraftKings look like the best value in the field and would pay out $250 in profit on a $10 wager.

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Chris Buescher (+2500)

I also have my eye on Buescher, who sits 21 points ahead of Wallace for the final playoff spot. He qualified third in the Darlington spring race and led 21 laps with a chance to win before a bump from Reddick ended his day.

He'll be looking for redemption for that and other near-misses this year, though he may play it safe if he's out-running Wallace down the stretch.

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Erik Jones (+5000)

If you're looking for a big swing, Jones has won this race twice before and enters raceday at 26th in the standings needing a win to advance.

Those previous Southern 500 wins came with different organizations, but the Legacy Motor Club driver was the fastest in Group A practice on Saturday before a disappointing qualifying run dropped him to 28th.

It'll be tough to claw his way back, but he has the speed, experience, and desperation to justify a 50/1 flyer at BetMGM.

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Darlington long-shot picks

• Ty Gibbs (+2500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Chris Buescher (+2500 via bet365) ⭐⭐
• Erik Jones (+5000 via BetMGM) ⭐

Southern 500 past winners

How to watch NASCAR at Darlington (Southern 500)

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 1
• Track: Darlington Raceway
• Length: 1.366 miles (367 laps, 500 total miles)
• How to watch: USA Network
• Defending winner: Kyle Larson

2024 Cook Out Southern 500 picks made Sunday at noon ET.

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