⚾ Reds vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, June 8

Both clubs will be looking to stop a spiral when the Cincinnati Reds meet the San Diego Padres tonight, with Andrew Abbott vs. Walker Buehler as the pitching matchup.

My Reds vs. Padres prediction ahead of first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET tonight from Petco Park (ESPN) is locking in on a perplexingly putrid Padres offense. That weakness is largely why the team has lost seven of its last eight games, while the Reds have dropped four straight.

But my MLB picks detail why the underdog Reds are better positioned to keep San Diego's offensive issues going.

⚾ Reds vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 1.10 units | Max profit: 2.37 units

🏆 Who will win Reds vs. Padres?

The Reds will prevail while doing just enough and clearing the low scoring bar needed to outlast a team averaging 2.5 runs per game over its last eight outings.

Score prediction: Reds 4, Padres 2

💰 Reds vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Reds first five ML (-102)

The Padres' offense is woeful overall while sitting 30th and averaging a mere 3.8 runs per game.

But those struggles get especially pronounced when the team faces a lefty. San Diego enters tonight with the league's worst OPS against southpaws like Abbott (.624), and the team is zapped of power while hitting only 12 home runs off a lefty.

Beyond the lefty split, Manny Machado's hard-hit rate has fallen from 51.5 last year to 42.9 now, and Fernando Tatis' expected slugging is down from .488 to .415.

🔥 Best Reds vs. Padres player prop bet

Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-122)

Abbott has fallen off since his All-Star season last year, but the hurler still boasts the weapons to stifle a bottom-tier offense.

He leans significantly on his sweeper while throwing it 48% of the time against lefties. It's generating an expected slugging of just .325, and the likes of Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets are baffled while slugging .059 and .167 against sweepers, respectively.

He similarly relies on his changeup against righties, and Machado is posting a .185 batting average against that offering.

💣 Reds vs. Padres home run prediction

Sal Stewart to hit a home run (+574)

A home run market that's difficult at the best of times is even more challenging here given the Padres' offensive sputtering, and Buehler allowing only four home runs this season while posting a 0.6 HR/9.

But if someone can sell out for power and heat to take him deep, it's Sal Stewart.

Buehler possesses below-average fastball velocity at 94 mph, and it also doesn't deceive with much movement. That's the ideal setup for Stewart, who's the classic heat hunter while posting a .667 slugging percentage against four-seamers, and most impressively, a 61.1% hard-hit rate, all according to Baseball Savant.

🚀 Reds vs. Padres same-game parlay

Most of the best MLB betting sites don't allow a parlay involving a first five innings wager, so we'll need to embrace a little more risk here with the Reds ML, though at a sprinkle of course.

There's a clear correlation throughout this parlay featuring two juicy plus-money legs, including another play on Stewart.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Reds vs. Padres: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Somehow it's over a week into June and Tatis is still sitting on one home run with a .670 OPS. He's the pinnacle of the Padres' offensive plummet, and that glaring weakness is why the team should be faded often right now, especially amid its current losing run.

However, I'm risking even less than usual on the home run play given Buehler's effective suppression in that regard. And once he leaves, the league's fifth-ranked bullpen takes over.

📊 Live Reds vs. Padres odds

The Padres are getting the majority of the moneyline bets through DraftKings while drawing 63% of the action. We see a similar split when looking at the total, with the Over on 8 runs getting 61% of the attention. The game total has dropped to 7.5 at some of the best sports betting sites, surely with San Diego's offensive issues in mind.

If you really want to protect yourself against both the Reds' bullpen and Abbott struggling in the later innings of his night, DraftKings offers a first three innings market. Cincinnati is the -105 underdog, with San Diego as the -125 favorite.

📈 Reds vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Reds vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Reds vs. Padres

• Date: Monday, June 8
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Reds starter: Andrew Abbott (4-3, 4.06 ERA)
• Padres starter: Walker Buehler (3-3, 4.53 ERA)