Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Boston Looks to Keep Pace in AL East

The Red Sox and Twins have split the first two games of this series, and while Minnesota appears to be a potential seller ahead of the deadline, Boston looks to keep pace in the playoff race.

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: July 30, 2025 11:34 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Wednesday, July 30 — Pictured: Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran reacts after hitting a home run, and he headlines our Red Sox vs. Twins prediction. Photo by Jordan Johnson via Imagn Images.

These teams have split the first two games of this series, and based on recent trade rumors ahead of the deadline, our Red Sox vs. Twins prediction believes one ballclub is much more focused on winning than the other.

With reports that the Twins could trade Carlos Correa - among other players - I'm expecting Minnesota's players to be somewhat distracted one day out from the deadline. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in the thick of the playoff race, as they occupy the second wild-card spot ahead of today's action.

Our Red Sox vs. Twins best bets examine what is being priced as essentially a coin flip by our best sports betting sites, and I expect Jarren Duran to make an impact on this game when it gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network) from Target Field.

Red Sox vs. Twins prediction: Red Sox to win (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Best Red Sox vs. Twins player props: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Red Sox vs. Twins prediction: Red Sox to win (+100 via FanDuel)

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These betting odds moved from -106 to +100 when Alex Bregman was scratched for the Red Sox, but the reason I made this pick in the first place is because I give Boston the advantage in the pitching matchup.

Brayan Bello hit a slight road bump in his last time out against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he really seems to have turned the corner this season. Even with that rougher outing, Bello hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 18, and he's gone at least six innings in eight of those 12 starts.

Meanwhile, Zebby Matthews has made two starts for the Twins since returning from the injured list. He pitched well last time out against the Washington Nationals but was roughed-up by the Colorado Rockies before that.

Matthews has phenomenal peripheral stats, and I believe he'll be a valuable starter for the Twins for a long time. However, he's still inconsistent right now, and the Red Sox are the type of team that can punish a pitcher in a hurry if they make mistakes over the plate.

💰 Best Red Sox vs. Twins player props

✅ Best Red Sox vs. Twins player prop: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110 via DraftKings)

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Duran is absolutely scorching-hot at the dish, as he owns a 1.074 OPS with five homers, 16 runs scored, and 18 RBI over the last 30 days. He drilled a home run last night in Boston's 8-5 win, and I expect him to drive the offense again today.

Moving Duran from the leadoff spot to No. 3 in the order has worked like a charm, especially because Roman Anthony is an on-base machine. If the rookie does what he's managed nearly every game recently and gets on today for Duran, a simple base hit could cash this bet for us.

This was part of my personal MLB bets today, which is why I'm making it five stars.

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Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

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Written by:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.