Red Sox vs. Mets Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 10)

The Red Sox vs. Mets win probability opens a compelling interleague series with Sonny Gray facing Nolan McLean in a matchup that could shape momentum heading into the All-Star break. Boston enters riding a hot streak, while New York looks to capitalize at home and keep building after recent offensive improvement. Current prediction market apps win probability markets lean towards the Mets (55%), making this one of the tighter games on the board. Is the market underrating Boston's recent surge, or does home-field advantage create the biggest probability edge worth backing?

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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Mets? Live MLB win probability

Boston has been one of baseball's hottest teams entering this series, and Sonny Gray gives the Red Sox a proven veteran edge on the mound. While Kalshi has kept Boston slightly behind in the market after opening near a coin flip, the recent move appears driven more by New York's home field than a significant pitching advantage.

The Mets counter with rookie Nolan McLean, whose upside is undeniable but who still faces one of his toughest tests against an experienced Boston lineup. Kalshi traders have pushed New York to roughly 55% versus 45% for Boston, with more than $200,000 in trading volume signaling strong interest ahead of first pitch.

My prediction: Red Sox win. The Red Sox have been playing some of their best baseball lately, and Sonny Gray gives them a reliable veteran presence in a favorable pitching matchup against rookie Nolan McLean. If Boston continues to capitalize on scoring opportunities and Gray delivers a quality start, the Red Sox have a strong chance to pull off the road victory.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Red Sox vs. Mets?

The Kalshi home run market is heavily concentrated on the Mets' two biggest power threats, with Juan Soto leading the board at 24% and Francisco Lindor checking in at 14%. That gap reflects Soto's elite combination of raw power, plate discipline, and consistent hard contact, making him the clear favorite to leave the yard.

While Lindor always brings home run upside, the market suggests Soto is the much stronger play, carrying nearly double the implied probability. Unless you're looking for a higher-risk payout, Soto offers the best value among the listed options and deserves the lean in this market.

My prediction: Juan Soto (24%) to hit a home run. Juan Soto's combination of elite bat speed, exceptional plate discipline, and ability to drive the ball to all fields always makes him one of the top home run threats in any lineup. If Sonny Gray leaves a fastball or hanging breaking ball over the heart of the plate, Soto has the power to change the game with one swing.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Red Sox vs. Mets?

The YRFI/NRFI market is one of the more intriguing bets in this matchup, with the pitching contrast creating uncertainty from the opening pitch. Sonny Gray has consistently shown the ability to navigate the first inning by limiting hard contact and avoiding free passes, giving Boston confidence early. On the other side, rookie Nolan McLean faces a disciplined Red Sox lineup capable of applying immediate pressure.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (55%). Sonny Gray has the experience and command to work through the top of the Mets' lineup, making a scoreless first inning a realistic expectation. If Nolan McLean throws strikes early and avoids free passes, both starters have a strong chance to keep this game scoreless through the opening frame.

📊 Red Sox vs. Mets win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Mets

• Date: Friday, July 10
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, NY)
• TV: MLB.TV
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Sonny Gray (10-1, 2.61 ERA)
• Mets starter: Nolan McLean (6-5, 3.73 ERA)