Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, July 18

A day after two AL East rivals, the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, kicked off the second half of the season with a doubleheader, they do battle once again from Fenway Park, with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The starting pitching matchup is between Ian Seymour and Patrick Sandoval, with the Rays listed as -105 betting underdogs.

My Rays vs. Red Sox prediction backs the road team in spite of Boston’s 11-game winning streak. I expect Sandoval’s rust in just his second start of the season to lead to a Rays slugger going deep, but it is a promising young Boston batter I’m also expecting to do well with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Rays vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Red Sox?

Though Boston has played much better baseball of late, it still has the worst home record in the Majors, which is why I am backing Tampa Bay this afternoon.

Score prediction: Rays 5, Red Sox 4

💰 Rays vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Rays ML (+102)

Much has been made of Boston’s MLB-best 15-5 record over its final 20 games leading up to the All-Star Break. But Tampa Bay quietly tied for the AL’s second-best record over that span (13-7), and shouldn’t be overlooked because of their superior play over the entire season.

Patrick Sandoval is coming off his first start since June 2024 (Tommy John surgery). I’m not encouraged by his fastball that topped out at 94.3 mph, which induced one whiff on 12 swings. Tampa Bay’s offense that ranks in the top nine in wOBA and BABIP should have a field day.

🔥 Best Rays vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Anthony Seigler Over 0.5 runs (+109)

Anthony Seigler entered the All-Star Break with 13 runs scored in just 74 at-bats. He drew eight walks in that span, and is not far removed from being the same hitter that drew walks at a 16.4% clip at Triple-A. 

Seigler was rewarded for his excellent start to his Red Sox career with a move to the leadoff spot for 12 games, while he batted sixth through ninth for the other 10. Though his slash line as a leadoff hitter was a paltry .152/.231/.261 at the All-Star Break compared to his .333 batting average or better in each of the other four spots in the lineup, Seigler still scored eight runs out of the top spot in 12 games.

Ian Seymour has seen his ERA increase for three straight months, and he has allowed 14 runs over 14 ⅔ innings in July.

💣 Rays vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+500)

Yandy Diaz is one of three Rays batters with four or more home runs against left-handed pitching this season. Diaz entered the second half with 45 total bases in 93 total plate appearances against southpaws, while he was slashing an elite .312/.383/.484 in that split.

Diaz’ .172 ISO against southpaws was second to only Junior Caminero on the team (min. 52 games). He has just two total home runs after belting seven in May alone, and has a great opportunity to go deep off of Sandoval, who had a career-worst ground ball to fly ball ratio in his last full healthy season.

🚀 Rays vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

Sticking with my original wager of backing Anthony Seigler to score at least one run would have contradicted my Rays moneyline wager. Therefore, I swapped that second leg for him simply to build upon yesterday's 3-for-8 performance from the doubleheader by recording a base hit, and called for Yandy Diaz to finish with some combination of two runs, hits, or RBI. Diaz went Over that projected total in five of six games leading up to the All-Star Break.

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💡 How I'm betting Rays vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

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Given that Boston is amid an 11-game winning streak (just four away from tying a franchise record), I was hoping to get plus-money odds on the Rays moneyline, especially after they were swept in yesterday's doubleheader. Thankfully FanDuel was one of the only MLB betting sites offering plus-money odds, making the first-place Rays a great value play. I would have also likely switched my Seigler prop wager to something like the Over on his total bases prop if I wasn't getting plus-money odds for him to score a run.

📊 Live Rays vs. Red Sox odds

There is a slight suggesting of sharp action appearing in this game based on the reverse line movement of the line moving slightly in Tampa Bay's favor despite the road underdogs only receiving 41% of the early wagers.

FanDuel and Caesars were the only two best sports betting sites to ever more their totals off the opening number of 9.5 and briefly spike to 10.5. But that inflated number didn't last long at either sportsbook, and they quickly aligned with the rest of the market with an O/U of 9.5. The Under is juiced as high as -116 (carrying a 53.70% implied probability) at bet365, and the Under has attracted 62% of the early wagers.

📈 Rays vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Rays vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Red Sox

• Date: Saturday, July 18
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rays starter: Ian Seymour (6-2, 4.59 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Patrick Sandoval (0-0, 2.08 ERA)