⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, July 18
Several of Major League Baseball’s top pitchers are still receiving rest from last week’s All-Star Break festivities, which means there are more pitchers to target with our best home run predictions today.
One of those pitchers I’m targeting is Nationals righty Zack Littell, who not only has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, but now pitches at one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in Sutter Health Park. I also add Mickey Moniak to my MLB home run picks while playing at Coors Field, along with Colson Montgomery and Gunnar Henderson.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 18
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+300 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.75u | Moniak is on a 39-home run pace over a full season |
| Colson Montgomery to hit a home run (+350 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.88u | Montgomery's fly ball rate is up more than 6% from last year's 21-HR campaign |
| Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+392 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.98u | Henderson has the best career success of any Orioles batter against Arrighetti |
| Tyler Soderstrom to hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.85u | Zack Littell has allowed 74% of his home runs this season to left-handed batters |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.46 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Mickey Moniak (+300)
Rhett Lowder has been torched for a 6.75 ERA and .284 OBA through eight road starts this season. Now he enters arguably the toughest environment for pitchers in Coors Field, boasting a poor .817 OPS allowed to left-handed batters.
Eight of the nine home runs Lowder has allowed this season have come to lefties, and Mickey Moniak entered the series with a .973 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a 1.080 OPS at home. He entered the second half on a 39-home run pace despite being awful against southpaws with a .200/.238/.350 slash line in that split.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Lowder's first start at Coors Field
Today is Rhett Lowder's first ever start at Coors Field, but his 1.232 OPS and .464 career BABIP on balls hit to the outfield doesn't play well in the Denver altitude.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Colson Montgomery (+350)
Shane Bieber optimists will say he looked better in his last start, working around a first-inning home run and showing increased velocity on all his pitches. Pessimists will say that Bieber has now allowed at least one home run in all four of his starts (seven total), and now faces a White Sox team who has hit the fourth-most home runs in the Majors.
Colson Montgomery has loved life on the road of late. He came out of the All-Star Break ranked 16th in slugging (.696) and 11th in ISO in 23 road plate appearances since June 30. He hit home runs on 27.3% of his fly balls in that span, and should connect off Bieber and his career-worst 30.2% fly ball rate.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Gunnar Henderson (+392)
Gunnar Henderson is the only current Orioles hitter with a home run in his career off of Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti. He is also the only batter with multiple hits in those head-to-head matchups, going 3-for-6 in a small sample size.
Arrighetti is trending downwards, going 0-4 with an 8.74 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his last seven starts. He has been touched up for eight home runs alone over his last four starts, with multiple outings of three home runs allowed in that span.
Arrighetti has allowed an OPS 205 points worse against left-handed batters than righties, and eight of his 12 homers have come from that split.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+340)
Few Athletics batters have benefited more from the hitter-friendly environment of Sutter Health Park than Tyler Soderstrom. Soderstrom came out of the All-Star Break with a .972 OPS in home games and a .674 OPS on the road. He now has hit nine of his 15 home runs at home despite logging 32 fewer at-bats in his home stadium.
Soderstrom faces Zack Littell who has allowed 23 home runs this year, 17 to left-handed batters. Littell has allowed at least one home run in five of his last six starts, and eight homers overall in that span. He is due further regression after ranking in the ninth percentile or worse in hard-hit rate and barrels, and the first percentile in average exit velocity.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+300)
- Colson Montgomery to hit a home run (+350)
- Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+350)
- Tyler Soderstrom to hit a home run (+310)
Best odds: +33110 via bet365 (0.1u -> 33.1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 186-284-1 | +46.04 units ✅ | +15.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 112-230 | +32.4 units ✅ | +19.1% ✅ |
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