Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Betting Odds & MLB Expert Picks: Aug. 27

With long-shot hopes of an AL Wild Card berth on the line, who can snag the series victory in the Rays vs. Guardians rubber match?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 27, 2025 9:12 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Betting Odds & MLB Expert Picks: Aug. 27 — Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero celebrates a solo home run as I make my best Rays vs. Guardians prediction. Photo by David Richard via Imagn Images.

The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays meet today for a rubber match, and my Rays vs. Guardians prediction analyzes who will walk out with a series win. The Guardians have been involved in shutouts in each of the last four games, but yesterday’s was the only one in which they were victorious.

Tampa Bay is a -135 betting favorite ahead of first pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland at 1:10 p.m. ET (MLBN).

Tampa Bay slugger Junior Caminero has been hot all month, and the final of my MLB picks for this game expects him to make history.

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✅ Rays to win (-130 via BetMGM)

Usatsi 26687803 — Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen is pivotal to my Rays vs. Guardians prediction. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck via Imagn Images.

Cleveland entered yesterday having been shut out in three straight games for the first time since 1991, and was outscored 24-0 over that span. While it finally snapped its 28-inning scoreless streak, it still was blanked for eight of the nine innings. My Rays vs. Guardians prediction expects the Guardians' struggles to continue with Drew Rasmussen toeing the rubber.

Rasmussen has brought his best in road starts this season. He is unbeaten (5-0) in 10 such starts, while pitching to a 2.68 ERA and .220 OBA. That is bad news for a Guardians team that had lost six straight and nine of 10 entering yesterday, while batting .168 as a team and averaging an MLB-worst 1.8 runs per game over that 10-game span (1.5 runs per game less than the 29th-ranked team).

Cleveland has lost Slade Cecconi’s last three starts, and four of the previous five.

BetMGM is one of the only top sports betting sites offering less than -134 odds to back the Rays. Its -130 odds imply a 56.52% chance that Tampa will pick up the win, and a profit of $7.69 on a winning $10 bet.

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💰 Best Rays vs. Guardians player prop bet

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🔥Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+255 via DraftKings)

Usatsi 26885125 — Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero features as my favorite player prop in my Rays vs. Guardians prediction. Photo by Darren Yamashita via Imagn Images.

Junior Caminero has 39 home runs this season, which is tied for the second-most in Rays single season franchise history, and is seven behind Carlos Pena’s 46 in 2007. He would tie a franchise record with 13 home runs in a single month if he goes yard today, which makes for a great value play with my best Rays vs. Guardians player prop.

Over the last 16 games prior to yesterday, Caminero slashed .323/.380/.862 with 11 home runs and 12 RBI.

The most appealing part of this wager is that he has power to every part of the ballpark. He has pulled 19 home runs, hit 11 straightaway, and nine to the opposite field. That makes him one of three players with nine-plus home runs to each field (Judge, Soto).

Surprisingly, our best MLB betting sites are aligned with these +255 odds (28.17% implied win probability), through which a winning $10 wager would net $25.50 in profits.

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🚑 Rays vs. Guardians injuries

📺 Rays vs. Guardians game info

When: Wednesday, Aug. 27
Kickoff: 1:10 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
How to watch: MLB Network

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Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

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The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”