MLB Player Prop Bets Today Saturday, Oct. 4: Best Bets for Saturday's Divisional Series

Four exciting Divisional Series get underway today, with matchups across both leagues, and the fact that two are between division rivals gives us more data to dive into our best MLB player props today. 

My MLB picks look to build off of Thursday’s profitable 3-2 day that included cashes of +102 and +141 odds. 

I back Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez to pitch lights out in Game 1 and help his team increase their World Series odds. My other best plays tackle the other three games on Saturday’s slate and offer a mix of pitcher and batter props, and if you're looking for some dinger plays, you can find those in my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player prop bets for Divisional Series; odds subject to change.

• Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs: Under 0.5 total bases (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Freddy Peralta, SP, Brewers: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: Over 0.5 RBI (+102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Phillies: Over 17.5 outs (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Javier Baez, SS, Tigers: Over 0.5 hits (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 MLB prop bets for Oct. 4

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️  Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 total bases (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Chicago Cubs DH Seiya Suzuki is amid a historic streak dating back to the regular season. He has recorded at least one extra-base hit in eight straight games, while batting .321 with three doubles, six home runs, and 12 RBI over that span.

That makes Suzuki one of six Cubs players in the modern era (since 1900) to have at least an eight-game extra-base hit streak. One more would tie him with Derrek Lee for the longest such streak in the last 125 years.

This is a great opportunity to fade that history with Brewers ace Freddy Peralta on the mound. Peralta .199 opponents’ average is the lowest of any pitcher since the start of 2021 (min. 500 IP), and he was third among all pitchers who threw at least 130 innings this season with a .193 OBA.

While BetMGM offers +115 odds at a 46.51% implied probability for Suzuki to go hitless, this bet is essentially the same wager since walks do not count towards total bases, and offers slightly better value. A $10 winning wager at +120 odds would return $12 in profits.

⬆️  Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105) ⭐⭐⭐

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta has been dominant against the Cubs since 2021. In those 16 starts, he is 7-2 with a 2.92 ERA, an 11.8 K/9 ratio, and has held them to a .156 average and .564 OPS.

Peralta finished the regular season in the top ten in strikeout rate (28.2%) and whiff percentage (30.1%). As such, he finished as one of five pitchers to rank in the 80th percentile or higher in both hard-hit and whiff percentage this season.

The biggest reason for backing Peralta’s strikeouts as opposed to his other player props is Chicago’s ranks against elevated fastballs since the All-Star Break. Our Josh Goldberg does prefer a different prop on the ace though, in his Cubs vs. Brewers player props.

The Cubs rank 27th in batting average, 27th in run value, and 28th in slugging against elevated fastballs in that span. Meanwhile, Peralta was 17th in the majors with a 57.2% elevated fastballs rate (min. 900 thrown), and the Cubs went 6-for-29 with 13 strikeouts in the last round against such pitches.

The best sports betting sites offer plus-money odds for this Over, but none better than Caesars’ +105 odds at a 48.78% implied probability. If Peralta strikes out at least seven batters, my winning $10 wager would net $10.50 in profits.

⬆️  Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+150) ⭐⭐⭐

New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge batted .364 in the three games against the Boston Red Sox, but only ended with one RBI because all four of his hits were singles. He should be in line for plenty of RBI chances against Kevin Gausman today, given how well the entire Yankees lineup has performed against the Blue Jays righty in their careers. It's why Shane Jackson fades Gausman in his Yankees vs. Blue Jays player props.

Gausman has allowed a combined .263/.356/.508 slash line to current Yankees hitters, and Judge is one of six batters on the team with a 1.048 OPS against Gausman (min. 10 AB). 

Judge’s RBI odds go as low as +139 (carrying a 41.84% implied probability), so the best value for his backers are at BetMGM. Through its +150 odds, a $10 wager would net $15 in profits if Judge drives in a run.

⬆️  Cristopher Sanchez Over 17.5 outs recorded (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Cristopher Sanchez has made 21 career starts on six or more days of rest. In that split compared to pitching on four or five days of rest, the southpaw has his lowest ERA, WHIP, and BABIP.

Sanchez ended the regular season by recording at least 18 outs in 19 of his final 21 starts, including a streak of 14 straight. That included a road start against the Dodgers in mid-September, where he battled through seven innings despite allowing four earned runs, his most in September.

With Zack Wheeler no longer an option to accompany him in the rotation, the Phillies are devoid of true innings eaters. 

I expect manager Rob Thomson to give Sanchez another long leash while protecting the bullpen for later in the series, and that's something that Shane Jackson's Dodgers vs. Phillies player props back as well. And it bodes well for Sanchez’s chances of pitching well, seeing as Philadelphia is a -123 betting favorite in Game 1 despite being underdogs in the series.

BetMGM is the only best sports betting app offering better than the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds to back this Under. At -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $9.52 in profits.

⬆️  Javier Baez Over 0.5 hits (-125) ⭐⭐⭐

Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez does not have the prettiest career numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby, going 1-for-11, though that one hit was a home run. But given how hot he has been of late, I am bucking that trend and backing him to record at least one hit at a manageable -125 price and 55.56% implied odds. Our Josh Goldberg is backing Kirby to not have a fantastic outing as well, in his Tigers vs. Mariners player props.

Baez hit safely in all three games in the wild-card series and now has a seven-game hitting streak dating back to the regular season. He has also recorded at least one hit in 17 consecutive games in which the Tigers have been underdogs against AL opponents.

If Baez records at least one hit in Game 1, my $10 wager would return $8 in profits.

MLB betting splits today

Cubs vs. Brewers:

• Moneyline: Opening +120 / -145 → Current +120 / -145
• % Bets: 52% / 48% | % Handle: 21% / 79%
• Total: Opening O 8 +100 / U 8 -120 → Current O 7.5 -110 / U 7.5 -110
• % Bets: 53% / 47% | % Handle: 49% / 51%
• Spread: Opening +1.5 -160 / -1.5 +135 → Current +1.5 -180 / -1.5 +150
• % Bets: 24% / 76% | % Handle: 3% / 97%

Yankees vs. Blue Jays

• Moneyline: Opening +105 / -125 → Current +105 / -125
• % Bets: 56% / 44% | % Handle: 61% / 39%
• Total: Opening O 7.5 -120 / U 7.5 +100 → Current O 8.5 -120 / U 8.5 +100
• % Bets: 84% / 16% | % Handle: 92% / 8%
• Spread: Opening +1.5 -155 / -1.5 +155 → Current +1.5 -165 / -1.5 +165
• % Bets: 58% / 42% | % Handle: 94% / 6%

Dodgers vs. Phillies

• Moneyline: Opening +105 / -125 → Current +100 / -120
• % Bets: 67% / 33% | % Handle: 63% / 37%
• Total: Opening O 7.5 +100 / U 7 -120 → Current O 7 -120 / U 7 +100
• % Bets: 63% / 37% | % Handle: 59% / 41%
• Spread: Opening +1.5 -210 / -1.5 +170 → Current +1.5 -220 / -1.5 +170
• % Bets: 48% / 52% | % Handle: 45% / 55%

Tigers vs. Mariners

• Moneyline: Opening +180 / -220 → Current +160 / -190
• % Bets: 71% / 29% | % Handle: 69% / 31%
• Total: Opening O 7 -105 / U 7 -115 → Current O 7 -105 / U 7 -115
• % Bets: 69% / 31% | % Handle: 65% / 35%
• Spread: Opening +1.5 -130 / -1.5 +110 → Current +1.5 -135 / -1.5 +115
• % Bets: 45% / 55% | % Handle: 35% / 65%