⚾ Mets vs. Phillies Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (June 18)
Two division rivals open a three-game series tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park (MLB Network), and the Mets vs. Phillies win probability from the prediction market apps shows a nearly even split.
The Phillies are the favorite while getting a 53% win probability. However, it feels like a game when the wrong team is receiving the higher chance to prevail.
It's difficult to trust the Phillies any time Aaron Nola has been taking the hill lately, as he seems to be rapidly falling further away from his prime.
🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Phillies? Live MLB win probability
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There was a dead-even split in this market when it opened. Since then the Phillies spiked to 55% favorites late last night before gradually falling back down to 52% amid nearly $260,000 in trading volume.
That seems about right given the shaky pitching on both sides, though Aaron Nola has been rockier and it therefore feels like the Mets deserve to be on the upper side of the win probability.
Nola just turned 33 years old, and his Cy Young days are now a speck in the rearview. His last time finishing among the top five in voting came in 2022, when his HR/9 sat at only 0.8. Now it's at 1.7, and a four-seamer he throws 24.7% of the time comes with 13th percentile velocity, according to Baseball Savant. As a result, it's getting blasted for an .852 slugging percentage allowed.
Mets starter Sean Manaea has been enduring struggles of his own en route to a 4.78 ERA. But he's at least been able to manage the truly damaging contact, with a hard-hit rate allowed that's dropped from 42.6% last year to 38% now.
My prediction: Mets win. New York is well-positioned to light up Nola, who has given up 10 earned runs across his last 14 innings. And when Manaea departs, he hands the ball to the league's fourth-ranked bullpen (3.34 ERA). For more analysis, head to our best strikeout props today from MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Mets vs. Phillies?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 29% |
| Juan Soto | 28% |
| Bryce Harper | 18% |
| Trea Turner | 14% |
Kyle Schwarber is a threat to go deep nightly while leading MLB in dingers and sitting on 25. He quite rightly leads this market while getting a 29% probability of launching one tonight. I would expect nothing less from a baseball punisher with a 99th percentile barrel rate.
But the Mets' megastar right behind him is more appealing. Juan Soto is receiving a 28% home run probability, and he's getting a perfect matchup to stay sizzling. Soto has registered five extra-base hits over his last seven games, two of which have left the yard.
That stretch includes a three-hit outing last night too. He's hitting a whole lot of baseballs right on the screws, which is shown through his 98th percentile squared-up percentage. He now draws a highly vulnerable starter in Nola who has allowed a .977 OPS across his last two starts.
My prediction: Soto to hit a home run. Nola attempts to keep hitters off his substandard fastball while featuring a curveball and sinker, and Soto is slugging .600 against breaking pitches. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mets vs. Phillies?
The probability of a first-inning run has been rising steadily since this market opened. It was low at first while sitting at 49% before a spike, and it sat as high as 56% prior to falling slightly to 54%.
It's a probability that no doubt rests largely on Nola's woes, especially at home. His home ERA (6.21) and OPS allowed (.859) are notably higher than the same figures on the road (5.62 and .808). That's due to a combination of a weak fastball, poor command and a 3.1 BB/9, and playing at Citizens Bank Park. It sits as the fifth-most homer-friendly venue, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Both of these teams are nearly neutral in terms of their NRFI/YRFI records, but the combination of Nola and the ballpark can easily lead to some early run production. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today.
📊 Mets vs. Phillies win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 48% | 50% | ↓ 2% |
| Phillies | 52% | 50% | ↑ 2% |
📈 Mets vs. Phillies trends
- The Mets are 1-2 in their last three games.
- The Over is 3-1 in the Mets' last four games.
- The Phillies are 2-1 in their last three games.
- The Over is 2-0 in the Phillies' last two games.
- The Phillies are 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings.
- The Over is 3-0 in the last three head-to-head meetings.
📺 How to watch Mets vs. Phillies
- Date: Thursday, June 18
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV: MLB Network
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mets starter: Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA)
- Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA)
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