⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (June 18)
Hunter Goodman stayed hot last night, and so did I, as the climb from an early-season hole continues. I'm up 2.5 units over the past nine days now with my MLB home run picks.
It'll be tougher to keep the momentum of my home run predictions today amid the usual shorter getaway-day slate on Thursday, with nine contests teed up. But we'll look to some trusted mashers in ideal matchups.
Juan Soto leads the way while getting a chance to be the latest to pick on a declining Aaron Nola.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 18
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto home run (+253 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.51u | Multi-hit games in five of his last seven outings. |
| Ben Rice home run (+242 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.48u | Throwing a lot of fastballs to one of the league's best heat hitters could end very poorly. |
| Bobby Witt Jr. home run (+440 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.85u | Liberatore's average exit velocity allowed is among MLB's worst. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.84 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+253)
Soto scuffled briefly to begin June, but he's now soared to a 1.421 OPS over the past week.
There's room to grow for Soto this season, too, as his .612 expected slugging (third leaguewide) sits a fair bit higher than the slugger's actual mark of .555.
He'll face Aaron Nola tonight, who's far removed from his Cy Young form from a few years back. His HR/9 sits at 1.7, tied for a career worst, and a 5.86 ERA is the product of a four-seamer that isn't threatening whatsoever. It's getting walloped while tagged with an .862 slugging percentage.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
📡 SBR Edge: Lasers galore
Soto's average exit velocity of 93.1 mph sits in the top 5% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+242)
Yes, being able to match fire with fire and destroy fastballs is a common trait among modern sluggers. There's really no other way to live as a power hitter given the velocity coming from the mound.
But some are far more skilled than most, and Ben Rice is in a special tier, particularly as a lefty who sees his share of heaters from righties. Rice, who's tied for fifth leaguewide with 20 long balls, is slugging a bonkers 1.100 against four-seamers, with a 64.1% hard-hit rate.
So it's a bad time to be Sean Burke of the White Sox, the righty who throws his painfully average fastball 40% of the time to lefties.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Chicago Sports Network
🤑 More MLB props
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and best strikeout props today.
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+440)
Witt gets some extra juice in his bat when there's a lefty on the mound. And tonight he'll face not just a southpaw, but one who has become a lauchpad in the Cardinals' Matthew Liberatore.
The Royals' shortstop has posted a .937 OPS against lefties this season, as opposed to a .779 when facing a righty. That alone is inviting, and especially so when it's combined with Liberatore's tendency to give up torpedoes heading deep into the night. His 91.5 mph average exit velocity allowed sits 17th-worst MLB-wide.
Witt's hard-hit rate of 52.1% is in the 94th percentile, and he can lock in on a changeup Liberatore throws 20% of the time to righties. The infielder is slugging .708 against changeups.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Leiter | Rangers | Under 5.5 strikeouts | -140 |
| Miguel Vargas | White Sox | To record 2+ hits, runs & RBIs | -120 |
| Bo Bichette | Mets | To record 2+ hits, runs & RBIs | -155 |
| Brandon Nimmo | Rangers | To hit 1+ home runs | +500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | Under 0.5 stolen bases | -275 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Juan Soto home run (+253)
- Ben Rice home run (+242)
- Bobby Witt Jr. home run (+440)
Best odds: +6419 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.3u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 44-132-2 | -3.06 units β | -4.6% β |
| Home run picks | 26-91-0 | -1.32 units β | -5.37% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-29 | 0.76 units β | 1.27% β |
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