Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, July 1

Toronto will celebrate Canada Day with fireworks later, but I expect them to start early in what should be a slugfest in this series finale between the Blue Jays and New York Mets. The starting pitching matchup is between Freddy Peralta and Braydon Fisher, with first pitch from the Rogers Centre scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Mets are slight -115 betting favorites.

In addition to backing the Over as best top Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction, I expect that to mean big things for Ernie Clement offensively, after he was the top vote getter for the All-Star Game. I also back a struggling Mets slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Mets vs. Blue Jays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.75 units

🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Blue Jays?

A new manager has not paid off in immediate success for New York, and I expect Toronto to add to the Mets’ misfortunes.

Score prediction: Blue Jays 6, Mets 4

💰 Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-122)

Freddy Peralta reached a new low in his last road start, allowing a career-high 10 earned runs. At that time, he had pitched to a 7.18 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his previous starts overall.

Peralta’s .237 xBA is on pace to be a career worst and is 31 points worse than last year’s mark. Meanwhile, Toronto is using a bullpen game after the previously scheduled starter, Patrick Corbin, was moved to the pen. If Corbin does see action in a relief role, know that he has posted a 6.60 ERA and a troubling .338 OBA through seven home starts.

While I'm backing plenty of runs here, I'm expecting a few other games to feature less action as I break down my best NRFI bets today.

🔥 Best Mets vs. Blue Jays player prop bet

Ernie Clement Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105)

Ernie Clement will be the AL’s starting second baseman at the All-Star Game, and he has a great chance to add to his solid season numbers today.

Clement has gone Over this projected total in three of the previous six games on hits alone. But it doesn’t hurt that he ranks third on the team in runs scored, second in total bases, and entered yesterday slashing .289/.316/.400 over the last 30 days.

It’s suggested that Peralta is due for positive regression since his 3.74 xERA is much better than his 4.53 actual ERA. But the righty has still pitched to a 5.40 ERA on the road, and allowed the same number of homers away from home (six apiece in each split) despite throwing 28 more innings at Citi Field.

💣 Mets vs. Blue Jays home run prediction

Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+750)

Mark Vientos has homered at least once in each of the last four series that have gone three or more games. He would be in his much better hitting split facing any of Toronto's left-handed arms, as his slugging percentage and OPS are 221 and 320 points better, respectively, against left-handed pitchers than righties.

Spencer Miles has been involved in many of Toronto's bullpen games recently, and he has allowed just two home runs in his previous 35 1/3 innings. But he has not recorded more than 13 outs in any of his appearances, so Vientos should get plenty of looks at more forgiving arms. Even if he does face Miles, the righty has allowed a home run in each of his last two outings where he threw three-plus innings.

Vientos has hit seven of his 10 home runs on the road this season, making this a great value play. 

🚀 Mets vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay

The legs of this same-game parlay which are player props both work well in combination which each other to support the Over cashing. I swapped my Vientos home run wager with a bet on him to record an RBI, although he has homered in three of the last four games he has driven a run in.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Mets vs. Blue Jays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The Mets haven't been over .500 in many splits this season, but one where they have been is as away favorites. New York is 15-14 in 29 games as a road favorite, but I cannot trust Freddy Peralta enough to back its -115 moneyline odds. After all, New York lost 50 of its first 85 games for just the fourth time in the last 40 seasons.

Therefore, the better wager is the Over, even if Toronto will be mixing and matching arms out of the bullpen all game.

📊 Live Mets vs. Blue Jays odds

Unsurprisingly, Toronto is a popular underdog given Peralta's struggles, even though it has lost seven of its last eight games. The Blue Jays have attracted 58% of the wagers, but it is too early for any significant line movement yet with the Blue Jays only announcing their starting pitching plans late Tuesday night.

BetMGM and Caesars are currently the only best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 9.0. Each was aligned with the rest of the market with an opening total of 8.5, but have raised a half run since. The Under has attracted 52% of the wagers, raising speculation that the line movement is a response to sharp action on the Over.

📈 Mets vs. Blue Jays betting trends

🚑 Mets vs. Blue Jays injuries

📺 How to watch Mets vs. Blue Jays

• Date: Wednesday, July 1
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mets starter: Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.53 ERA)
• Blue Jays starter: Braydon Fisher (3-3, 3-48 ERA)