MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Wednesday, July 1
Major League Baseball games are being played at two of the league’s most hitter friendly ballparks (Coors Field and Sutter Health Park), which makes that a key driving factor in my home run predictions today.
Max Muncy (the one on the Dodgers) is one of the best value plays with him facing Athletics righty J.T. Ginn for the first time. I also couldn’t help but back the player who hit the most homers in June (Hunter Goodman) to continue that momentum into a new month. Two other MLB home run picks round out a four-pack of plays for today’s 14-game slate.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy to hit a home run (+350 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.88u | Muncy is close to the top five in home runs in Dodgers franchise history |
| Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+240 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.6u | Caminero was last week's AL Player of the Week after a torrid stretch of hitting |
| Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+283 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.71u | Goodman led all MLB batters in home runs in June |
| Casey Schmitt to hit a home run (+476 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Zac Gallen's HR/9 rate is fifth worst among qualified pitchers |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.38 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Max Muncy (+350)
Max Muncy of the Dodgers homered in Monday’s series opener to snap a 13-game home run streak. He has now hit 226 home runs in a Dodgers uniform, leaving him two shy of tying Ron Cey for fifth-most in franchise history.
Muncy is slightly behind pace to complete his fifth season with 35-plus home runs. While his GB/FB ratio is on pace to be his highest since 2020, he is still on pace for a home run percentage of 5.7% or better for the third time since then. His OPS also improved 63 points from last month.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Positive regression looming
Max Muncy's .512 slugging percentage is 37 points better than the .475 slugging percentage he totaled when he tied for his career-high in home runs (36) in 2023.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+240)
Junior Caminero took home AL Player of the Week honors after batting .423 with four doubles, seven home runs, and 15 RBI in seven games. He also turned in the eighth three-home run game in franchise history.
Caminero is amid a five-game home run streak. He is 3-for-6 with two home runs against Seth Lugo, and the righty is declining with the worst WHIP of his 11-year career.
Lugo’s 32% fly ball rate is on pace to smash his previous career high of 28.6% (set in 2019). Allowing balls in the air against Caminero is dangerous given that his 26.8% HR/FB rate is the sixth-highest among qualified hitters.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💥 Even more home runs?
My Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction breaks down the Canada Day matinee north of the border and highlights another home run prediction for today's slate.
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+283)
Hunter Goodman hit 26 homers before July, the most in Rockies franchise history. He also became the first National League catcher since Johnny Bench in 1970 to hit 25-plus homers in a team’s first 83 games.
Goodman ranks 10th in slugging percentage since 2025 (min. 600 PA). His .954 slugging percentage to the pull/straightaway sides entering the week was the third-highest (min. 75 PA). He also had an MLB-high 12 home runs this season and 25 since the start of 2025 off breaking pitches.
Goodman and Ohtani are the only two players with a .500+ slugging percentage on all three pitch types (fastball, breaking, offspeed) since the start of 2025 (min. 250 PA vs FB, 150 PA vs breaking, 50 PA vs offspeed).
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Casey Schmitt (+476)
The Giants are 0-7 against the Diamondbacks, and have lost 10 of 11 head-to-head matchups. But if San Francisco is to break the schnide, it’s likely because of a big day from Casey Schmitt.
Schmitt is 4-for-10 with a home run off of Zac Gallen. The righty has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last three starts. That doesn’t include a blowup outing in his last home start which tied his career-highs in earned runs (nine) and hits (12). After that start, he had pitched to a 7.76 ERA in his previous 10.
Gallen’s 1.56 HR/9 rate is the fifth-worst among qualified pitchers, even though his ground ball rate is better than the four with a worse HR/9 rate.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ Prefer NO home runs?
If you'd rather whiffs than taters, my best NRFI bets today has just what you're looking for (although I did sneak one YRFI play in there)
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Max Muncy to hit a home run (+350)
- Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+240)
- Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+265)
- Casey Schmitt to hit a home run (+450)
Best odds: +30615 via bet365 (0.1u -> 30.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-131-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
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