Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Wednesday, July 1

Temperatures are expected to be scorching hot around the country, so starting pitchers will likely have to be sharp early. How will those temperatures affect my best NRFI bets today?

Defending NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes has been shaky early this year, but I am still calling for him and Zack Wheeler to match zeros early in a battle of aces. I’m also backing a midseason resurgence from Tatsuya Imai in the Twins-Astros matchup as part of my MLB NRFI picks. My only YRFI play is in the Marlins-Rockies matchup from Coors Field, as Max Meyer has worse splits on the road.

⚾ Best NRFI bets today: July 1

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.31 units

💰 Best NRFI bet today

Rangers vs. Guardians (1:10 p.m. ET)

• MacKenzie Gore (4.05) vs. Joey Cantillo (3.87)
• NRFI records: Rangers (31-55) vs. Guardians (49-37)

MacKenzie Gore has egregious home/road splits this season, pitching to a 2.49 ERA and .187 OBA at home, and a 5.48 ERA and .253 OBA in 10 road starts. But he has a "get right" opportunity against a Guardians lineup that ranks 20th in on-base percentage, 23rd in BABIP, and 26th in wRC+ against southpaws.

Joey Cantillo was rocked for seven earned runs and nine hits over five innings in a June 7 start at Texas. However, he was close to getting out of the first inning unscathed before allowing a two-out homer to Justin Foscue.

🔥 More NRFI picks today

Pirates vs. Phillies (6:40 ET)

• Paul Skenes (3.10) vs. Zack Wheeler (2.03)
• NRFI records: Pirates (41-45) vs. Phillies (39-47)

Paul Skenes had gone 6-0 with two earned runs allowed in 34 innings pitched, a .197 opponents’ average, and a 45:4 K:BB ratio in his first six starts against Cincinnati. However, he just allowed four earned runs over five innings in his last start against the division rival. 

The team has now lost each of Skenes’ last eight starts, while the righty is 0-5 with a 4.40 ERA and four-plus runs allowed in three of those eight. While he will have to deal with a trio of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh who combined to bat .284 with 61 home runs, a .912 OPS, 148 wRC+, and 6.2 fWAR entering this series, I’m backing Zack Wheeler's five-start NRFI streak.

Twins vs. Astros (8:10 ET)

• Taj Bradley (3.98) vs. Tatsuya Imai (5.36)
• NRFI records: Twins (38-49) vs. Astros (35-53)

Tatsuya Imai is finding his footing in his first MLB season, coming off back-to-back starts of 10-plus strikeouts (he had zero such outings in his nine previous starts). Imai’s slider was working particularly well in his last start. On 50 such pitches, he generated 14 whiffs and nine strikeouts, and opposing batters were 0-for-13 in at-bats ending on sliders.

Taj Bradley is on pace for his best career ERA and H/9 rate, and his strikeout rate is due to increase for the third straight year. His 6.60 first-inning ERA is due for positive regression since he has pitched to a 2.40 ERA or better in each of the next three innings.

Marlins vs. Rockies (8:40 ET)

• Max Meyer (2.60) vs. Kyle Freeland (7.50)
• YRFI records: Marlins (43-43) vs. Rockies (53-33)

During Miami’s four-game winning streak last week, it batted .293 with a .822 team OPS, and averaged 4.8 runs per game over that span. It entered yesterday an MLB-best 19-6 in June thanks to an offense that ranked in the top 10 in wRC+, on-base percentage, and slugging over the month.

We’re getting great value on this play despite the game taking place in Coors Field, thanks to Max Meyer’s perfect 9-0 record and 2.60 ERA. But Colorado was also the only team to score three runs off him in a home start.

Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland has a 9.00 ERA, .322 OBA, and .370 BABIP in the first inning this year.

Want more runs? My Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction has a play on the total, while my best home run predictions today highlight four players I expect to go yard.

🚀 Best NRFI parlay today

If looking at full game totals, it doesn't seem egregious to back the three NRFI plays we're backing, even if it goes against some consistent trends of late. And in the case of the Marlins-Rockies YRFI wager, ballpark environment at Coors Field has a lot to do with it, as does Miami's scorching hot offense in June.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting NRFI picks today (July 1)

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Three of my four NRFI/YRFI wagers can likely be considered contrarian plays. I am opposing MacKenzie Gore's poor road splits and the fact that Joey Cantillo allowed seven runs in a start to the Rangers. In addition, Paul Skenes' 5.40 first inning ERA is his worst of any of the first five innings, while Max Meyer has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the National League. But first inning wagers are a volatile market, and I do not mind being on the contrarian side of some wagers, especially given that they offer the best value in some cases.

❓ NRFI betting FAQ

What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?

NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).

What does YRFI mean?

YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.

What should I look for when betting NRFIs?

Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.