⚾ MLB Long-Shot Bets for Major Awards in 2026: 6 Value Picks With Spring Training Underway

Spring training is underway, and you may want to start digging into our World Baseball Classic betting guide, because that tournament is rapidly approaching. I'm looking beyond both, though, to the regular season, with my MLB awards long-shot bets for the 2026 campaign.

I'm delivering six of my best futures bets - two for each of the three major awards - that are trading at odds of +3000 or longer. By targeting these long shots, we can reduce our wager size and still make a ton of money. Even on a 0.25-unit bet, you'd make 7.5 units on odds of +3000. Let's hunt for some value.

👑 MLB MVP

There's an easy way to find an MLB MVP long shot at the best sports betting sites, and a hard way.

The easy way is to bank on either of the two best pitchers in baseball - the favorites by the Cy Young odds - to get the MVP nod. I did lean that way for one of my picks, because said pitcher is just too damn good.

The hard way is to dig through the data, explore various narratives, and uncover a true underdog with the potential to win. Considering the NL features massive minus-money favorite Shohei Ohtani in the MLB MVP odds, I found it best to go this route.

MLB MVP long-shot bets

AL MVP long-shot bet: Tarik Skubal (+5000)

Some may prefer Paul Skenes - though, that doesn't matter in this exercise because he pitches in the NL - but for my money, Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball.

The left-hander is coming off his second straight AL Cy Young win, and he somehow put together an even better 2025 season than his already-absurd 2024 campaign. Over the last two seasons, Skubal has accrued 12.6 fWAR. That's the fifth-most among American League players and the first among all pitchers (by a wide margin).

Pitchers naturally accrue fewer WAR than hitters, mostly because they don't play every day and also don't provide any offensive value. And though that also hurts them in the MVP race, there are a couple of reasons I like Skubal's chances to win.

First, as I mentioned, Skubal is seemingly getting better each year. In 2025, he managed an absurd 2.21 ERA, and he was first among qualified pitchers with a 32.1 CSW%. His average fastball velocity jumped again - it's gone from 94.2 in 2022, to 95.8 in 2023, to 97 in 2024, to 97.7 mph in 2025 - and he has arguably the best changeup in baseball. So, yeah, I like his chances to win AL MVP simply because he's an utterly ridiculous cheat code of a pitcher.

The second reason I like him as a long-shot bet is because he feels like the person who benefits the most from Aaron Judge voting fatigue. Look, I thought this was going to happen last season, and the BBWAA still went with Judge over Cal Raleigh hitting 60 home runs as a catcher. If that feat by Raleigh isn't enough, I think the only ways someone can beat Judge is by combining home runs and stolen bases at a historic rate (think 40-40 or better) or by setting a new standard for starting pitching.

I think Skubal has the ability to go sub-2.00 ERA and rack up the most strikeouts in baseball. For those reasons, I'd price Skubal closer to +2000 to win AL MVP. The fact that he's trading behind the likes of Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, and Adley Rutschman is just silly.  

NL MVP long-shot bet: William Contreras (+6000)

As I mentioned, it's a bit more difficult to find a worthy long-shot bet to win NL MVP when Ohtani exists. In fact, it's hard to find anyone else worth betting to win this award. However, I think William Contreras profiles as one of the five most-likely candidates to win. 

Contreras is by far the most valuable catcher in the NL, as his 15.0 fWAR over the last three years is nearly five more than Will Smith's second-best of 10.6. A big reason for that is the fact that Contreras is often used as the Milwaukee Brewers' DH on his days off, providing him with the opportunity to play 150-plus games.

The catcher took a bit of a step back at the plate last year, but he got hot during the second half of the season, and I believe between his bat and defensive value, he's the type of catcher who could accrue 8.0 to 9.0 fWAR. The latter is what Raleigh lost with to Judge last year, and I believe his defeat actually could help another catcher during these next few seasons.

After denying Raleigh of being the first catcher to win MVP since Buster Posey in 2012, it's entirely possible the BBWAA decide they can't possibly make the same decision again if faced with a similarly spectacular catching campaign.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Contreras can hit 60 bombs. But he could swat 35 while batting .280 or better, and when you combine that with his typically stellar defense, I believe this is a true NL MVP contender who's being priced way too long.

🏆 MLB Cy Young

Skubal and Skenes stand as the Cy Young favorites, but baseball is full of talented starting pitchers who can put together the type of campaign you need to win the award. My AL pick is someone I discussed in my five MLB futures bets to make during spring training, while my NL pick is someone I've never been particularly high on, but I think I'm ready to admit I was wrong.

MLB Cy Young long-shot bets

AL Cy Young long-shot bet: George Kirby (+4000)

If you've been keeping up with our baseball content, you know that George Kirby is one of my MLB bounce-back candidates to watch this season, and you may have already placed this bet.

Kirby experienced a bit of a "down year" in terms of his surface stats in 2025, but he still owned elite peripherals. In fact, he struck out batters at a higher clip than ever before, and I think he corrects the walk issues that uncharacteristically plagued him last season.

I think between his ability to pound the strike zone and his increase in missed bats in 2025, Kirby could make the leap from upper tier starting pitcher to one of the truly elite arms - think Cristopher Sanchez last year. For that reason, I can't ignore him in this market when he's priced at longer odds than the likes of Gavin Williams, Kyle Bradish, and Ranger Suarez.

I also like Sonny Gray as a potential long-shot winner, but my biggest issue with him is I don't think he'll be the best pitcher on his own team. Kirby can, and when you consider he pitches in what might be the best rotation in the AL, him standing out among that group would make his case to win this award even stronger.

NL Cy Young long-shot bet: Jesus Luzardo (+3000)

I've doubted Jesus Luzardo for years, but he looked like an absolute beast in 2025, and I think the best is yet to come for the talented southpaw.

There are a number of underlying stats that suggest Luzardo was actually really unlucky last season despite having a very strong campaign. His ERA was still solid at 3.92, but his xERA of 3.33 and FIP of 2.90 tell the story of a pitcher who was much more dominant than that surface-level number suggests.

Luzardo managed one of the lowest walk rates of his career and did well to limit the long ball. However, he was punished by a .324 BABIP, which should regress positively this season. 

The lefty also managed to throw the most innings of his career, which bodes well for his ability to reach a number that would put him in Cy Young contention in 2026.

As it stands after one weekend of spring training play, most of the leading projection models have Luzardo as one of the six or seven most-valuable pitchers in MLB by fWAR, but he's not being priced as one. Take advantage of these long odds.

👀 MLB Rookie of the Year

Finding an MLB Rookie of the Year long shot is the most difficult task of these three, in my opinion. Betting on a long shot is essentially betting on a guy who doesn't have a clear path to the majors for Opening Day, so that makes it inherently more risky than any of these other bets.

You won't see either of these guys on my list of MLB rookies to know before spring training. Therefore, make sure you're really limiting your bet size on these. Both are trading at odds of at least +5000, so you can wager 0.1 units and still make five units on a win.

MLB Rookie of the Year long-shot bets

AL Rookie of the Year long-shot bet: Spencer Jones (+5000)

Spencer Jones to win AL Rookie of the Year is about as sketchy of a bet as you can make here early in spring training. However, it might also be one of the best.

The New York Yankees rookie was once considered a top prospect for the organization, but his brutal strikeout rates and general inability to make regular contact have sent him down most prospect lists. However, the ceiling is sky-high.

Jones hit 35 homers and stole 29 bases in the minors last year, but he also struck out at a hideous 35.4% clip. The outfielder is simply a massive human at 6-foot-7, 240 lbs, and that's led to him being late on or swinging right through pitches due to his long swing.

But many noticed when he cranked his first homer of spring training a couple of days ago that his swing now looks eerily similar to Ohtani's, which, I mean, isn't a bad player to model your mechanics after.

I don't know that he's going to play a significant number of games for the Yankees, or if he'll be any good if he does play. But I do know that Jones has some serious power in his bat and is exactly the type of player who can lead to a massive profit on odds this long. 

NL Rookie of the Year long-shot bet: Jett Williams (+5500)

Jett Williams is basically the opposite of Jones. The 5-foot-7 infielder doesn't have the benefit of natural power, but he makes the most out of his smaller frame. The infielder hit 17 bombs last year in the minors and stole 34 bases, and he joined the Brewers organization this offseason in the trade that sent Milwaukee ace Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets.

Williams is a super exciting prospect on a team full of exciting prospects. Imagine Williams forming a middle-infield duo with second baseman Brice Turang, who stole 50 bases two years ago and took a leap last year to become one of the best infielders in the NL.

As it stands, Joey Ortiz is set to serve as the Brewers' Opening Day shortstop, but I don't find him to be an especially impressive player, and this is a team that can still very much contend in the NL Central. If Williams can give them that boost, I don't think Milwaukee will hold him back. 

This also feels like a massive pricing mistake by DraftKings, as FanDuel has Williams at +3000, which I think are much more reasonable odds. I'm taking a stab at these +5500 odds on a player who could hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases if he gets the call early enough in the campaign.