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New York Mets pinch-hitter Pete Alonso celebrates with teammates in the dugout after scoring the tying run in the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field as we look at our home run props for Tuesday.
New York Mets pinch-hitter Pete Alonso celebrates with teammates in the dugout after scoring the tying run in the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. Photo by Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports.

Pere Alonso headlines our home run props based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites.

The cartoon version of Mark McGwire once asked if you want to know the terrifying truth or see him sock dingers. Friends, we are choosing dingers every time.

Home runs are great fun for all, except the pitcher while he watches yet another ball sail to a land far away. We'll be diving into the best home run props, with Tuesday an ideal time to begin as FanDuel runs its Dinger Tuesday promotion.

We start our home run props for Tuesday with a certain baseball-smacking polar bear from the New York Mets.

Home run props for Tuesday

Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.

Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.

Pete Alonso (RHH) vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), Citi Field

Hitter statsPitcher stats
Home runs: 14HR/9: 1.1
SLG%: .476HR/FB%: 7.6%
FB%: 29.8%FB%: 32.9%
Hard hit %: 40.0%Hard hit %: 41.6%

Pete Alonso has shown signs of recovering from a tough May while recording a 1.019 OPS seven games into June. That sizzling run includes five extra-base hits and two home runs.

Now the white-hot slugger who's built up a .525 slugging percentage against southpaws gets to tee off on a lefty in Jesus Luzardo. He's been regularly getting torched while posting a 91.2 average exit velocity that ranks among the bottom 7% of MLB. His fastball is really getting hammered, with an expected slugging percentage of .532.

Factor all that in for Tuesday, and it's easy to see why NumberFire is giving Alonso the highest home run projection for the night.

Best odds: +430 via Caesars (18.7% implied probability)

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Nolan Gorman (LHH) vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), Busch Stadium

Hitter statsPitcher stats
Home runs: 14HR/9: 1.3
SLG%: .470HR/FB%: 16.0%
FB%: 36.8%FB%: 21.0%
Hard hit %: 37.6%Hard hit %: 43.5%

Yes, going against Paul Skenes in any way is terrifying stuff. But the very nature of home run props invites embracing some risk (through the appropriately small wager, of course) while searching for a significant reward.

And this is the classic example of that pursuit. Skenes has been piling up strikeouts early in his career, and our Paul Skenes odds highlighted that as an area to eye when looking to place a futures bet tied to him. Skenes has logged eight-plus strikeouts during three of his five starts so far.

However, throwing hard means that when batters do square up Skenes' offerings, the ball leaves even faster in the opposite direction. That's led to him allowing four home runs already, including two during the rookie's last outing.

Now he faces the St. Louis Cardinals, and power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman. The lefty thrives against velocity. He's slugging .553 against fastballs in 2024, which comes after a .569 in 2023. He's also been heating up after a sluggish start, posting a .920 OPS in May and a .960 thus far in June.

Best odds: +550 via Caesars (15.38% implied probability)

Nick Castellanos (RHH) vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), Fenway Park

Hitter statsPitcher stats
Home runs: 9HR/9: 0.7
SLG%: .360HR/FB%: 5.5%
FB%: 31.6%FB%: 28.8%
Hard hit %: 39.7%Hard hit %: 34.1%

As noted in our Phillies vs. Red Sox player props for Tuesday, Kutter Crawford hasn't been enjoying himself much on the mound lately.

The righty started the season in impressive fashion while sporting a minuscule 1.35 ERA during March and April. That spiked rapidly to 5.14 during May, and he was also shelled while allowing four runs across six innings during his lone June start. Most importantly for this wager, he went from not allowing a single long ball over his first six starts and 33 1/3 innings, to coughing up six dingers across his last seven appearances.

Now an icy cold hurler is facing a hitter who's going in the opposite direction recently, with two homers over his last three games, and an OPS that's risen from .706 during May to .836 in June. Toss in Nick Castellanos thriving against a pitch Crawford throws often and producing a .733 slugging percentage against cutters, and you get an appealing matchup.

Best odds: +520 via FanDuel (16.13% implied probability)

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