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Dodgers vs. Padres MLB Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Thursday

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: March 20, 2024 5:41 PM EDT • 4 min 48 sec read.

Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a single in the third inning against Yu Darvish of the San Diego Padres, and we offer our top Dodgers vs. Padres predictions based on the best MLB odds.
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a single in the third inning against Yu Darvish of the San Diego Padres. Photo by Yoshitaka Nishi/The Yomiuri Shimbun via AFP.

The Los Angeles Dodgers took Game 1 of the Seoul Series, and we'll look at whether the San Diego Padres can bounce back with our top Dodgers vs. Padres MLB player props based on the best MLB odds.

The World Series odds favorite Los Angeles Dodgers kicked off their regular season with a win over the San Diego Padres in the opening game of MLB's Seoul Series.

Led by an outstanding performance by newly acquired NL MVP odds contender Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers stormed back in the eighth inning on Wednesday, beating the Padres 5-2. 

The Dodgers will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the hill on Wednesday for the second of this two-game set, and he'll be dueling with Joe Musgrove, who will likely serve as the Padres' unofficial ace this season.

Will Los Angeles pull off the two-game sweep to start its campaign, or can San Diego get revenge for Wednesday's collapse?

Here are our best Dodgers vs. Padres MLB player props and MLB picks (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dodgers vs. Padres props: Thursday

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Dodgers vs. Padres predictions

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Offseason addition and NL Rookie of the Year odds favorite Yamamoto makes his regular-season debut for the Dodgers on Thursday, and he'll go up against a Padres lineup that limited Tyler Glasnow to only three strikeouts on Wednesday. However, we still like the Over on Yamamoto's strikeout prop for a couple of reasons.

First, the talent is obviously there for Yamamoto. He managed 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings across seven seasons in Japan, and he dominated hitters during spring training to the tune of 13.03 K/9.

He mixes a mid-90s fastball with a nasty splitter that perfectly mimics his heater until it dives out of the zone.

Yamamoto also throws two different breaking pitches and adds in a decent cutter from time to time. His command is off the charts and he should keep Padres hitters off-balance for the majority of his start.

Ballpark Pal projects Yamamoto to finish with 5.78 strikeouts in less than five innings on Thursday, so if he can go five-plus, there's much better than a 50% chance (as the implied probability of these +100 odds suggests) that he goes Over 4.5 strikeouts.

Be sure to shop around, as BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than minus money for this Over.

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Joe Musgrove to record fewer walks than Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

One of Yamamoto's biggest strengths in Japan was his ability to limit walks, but he's going up against a pitcher in Musgrove who very much owns a similar skill set.

Musgrove's walk rate was a career-low 5.3% last season, and that was following a 2022 season in which he managed a similarly impressive 5.7% mark.

The Dodgers and Padres were the two best teams in the majors last year when it came to taking walks, and they continued that on Wednesday by chasing the opposing starter by forcing them to throw a ton of pitches - Glasnow walked four Padres and Yu Darvish walked three Dodgers in only 3 2/3 innings.

The biggest reason we're making this bet is the massive discrepancy in these head-to-head odds. Ballpark Pal projects Yamamoto to finish with 2.53 walks and Musgrove to finish with 2.04, but BetMGM has the latter trading at +200 to finish with fewer free passes on Thursday.

Be sure to use our exclusive BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS to take advantage of these enticing odds!

James Outman to hit a home run (+600 via BetMGM) ⭐

Dodgers outfielder James Outman had an impressive - though inconsistent - rookie campaign last year. He hit 23 home runs in 151 games and is expected to serve as Los Angeles' primary centerfielder this season.

Outman went 0-for-3 on Wednesday, but he hit two balls with exit velocities over 100 mph, including the fifth-hardest-hit ball of the game.

Ballpark Pal projects Outman to hit 0.18 home runs on Thursday, just behind the projections for Freddie Freeman and Fernando Tatis Jr., with the latter trading around +300 to go deep in the second game of the Seoul Series.

We're getting roughly 15% positive expected value on this bet based on Ballpark Pal's projection. We can further see the value when we note that BetMGM's +600 odds come with an implied probability of just 14%.

As is the case with any one-star pick - or home run props, in general - temper your expectations and limit your wager. You can still earn a nice profit by betting only 0.25 units on +600 odds!

Shohei Ohtani player prop

Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 walks (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

OK, this one is a lot less fun than our Ohtani player props for Wednesday's game, in which we predicted him to steal a base (✅), go Over 1.5 total bases (✅), and hit a home run in a Dodgers win. We'll take a 2-1 showing.

Now, we turn our attention to a somewhat inefficient market. Among our best sports betting apps, DraftKings offers the best odds on Ohtani taking a walk on Thursday.

This +125 price comes with just a 44% implied probability that Ohtani will be handed a free pass, while Ballpark Pal projects him to finish with 0.66 walks on Thursday.

Additionally, this one is somewhat of a hedge against our second pick. If Musgrove does record more walks than Yamamoto, it's likely that Ohtani - who owns the second-highest walk projection among Dodgers hitters - is one of those sent to first.

It's not as exciting as a home run, but the fact that we're getting good plus-money odds on an Ohtani walk makes this pick perhaps the best of the day.

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Dodgers vs. Padres MLB player props made Wednesday at noon ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He's been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He's probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.