⚾ Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 23

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers meet in a rematch of last year’s NLCS as the two first place clubs look on track for another postseason rematch. First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX), with the starting pitching matchup between Roki Sasaki and Robert Gasser. The Dodgers are -120 betting favorites.

My Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction backs the home underdogs, whom I expect to make life difficult for Sasaki. But since Milwaukee gets a majority of its offense without hitting home runs, I’m backing a Dodgers slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Dodgers vs. Brewers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.98 units

🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Brewers?

Los Angeles has been solid with one of the best road records in the league (16-10), but Milwaukee’s dominance against teams with a winning record tips the scales in its favor tonight.

Score prediction: Brewers 5, Dodgers 4

💰 Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction & best bet

Brewers ML (+108)

The Brewers are a dominant 18-6 against teams with a winning record, while no other team is better than seven games over .500 in that split. 

Dating back to 2023, Milwaukee has had a top three record against winning teams in each of the four seasons, and its .574 win percentage overall in that span against teams over .500 is the best in the majors. The Brewers have also had their share of success against Los Angeles in the regular season, going a combined 9-4 against Los Angeles's championship teams over the last two years. 

🔥 Best Dodgers vs. Brewers player prop bet

Roki Sasaki Under 5.5 strikeouts (-149)

I am selling high on Roki Sasaki, who is coming off career-highs in both innings pitched (7) and strikeouts (8) in his last start against the MLB-worst Angels.

Milwaukee’s lineup is incredible top to bottom in how disciplined each hitter’s approach at the plate is, how consistently they make contact, and how explosive they can be without relying on home runs.

The Brewers wear you down with stringing hits together like few teams can, as they entered the series with the seventh-most runs but the fewest home runs. Their top-five on-base percentage is buoyed by their NL-best 20.3% strikeout rate, and their .301 BABIP usually helps run pitchers’ pitch counts up quickly.

Sasaki has faced three teams with a winning record this season and topped four strikeouts just once, so I’m expecting a lower ceiling for his strikeout total tonight.

💣 Dodgers vs. Brewers home run prediction

Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+493)

Freddie Freeman turned in his first multi-home run game earlier this week, following a stretch of one home run in his previous 35 games. 

Robert Gasser allowed two earned runs on three hits in his season debut last week, but two of those were extra-base hits (both doubles) allowed to left-handed batters.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff entered the series with a 2.21 ERA since the start of May, so home runs may be at a premium for Dodgers sluggers. But Freeman’s .517 xSLG (89th percentile) is still a big improvement over his .475 and .467 xSLGs from the last two seasons, and his 76th percentile barrel rate makes him an excellent value play to go yard even if his overall home run numbers are down.

🚀 Dodgers vs. Brewers same-game parlay

Freddie Freeman hitting a home run would have directly opposed my Brewers moneyline play, so I swapped that with Bruce Turang to score a run to make a more cohesive three-leg same-game parlay. Turang just had a six-game streak of a least one run scored snapped in the team's finale in the last series, and Sasaki has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Dodgers vs. Brewers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The unknown in Robert Gasser will likely have many avoiding wagering on Milwaukee, but its success as home underdogs over the years and its perfect 7-0 regular season record against Los Angeles dating back to last season was too enticing for me to ignore. I also would not put anyone off backing Jake Bauers' player props in some capacity, given that he is amid a 12-game hitting streak, during which he hit five doubles, two home runs, and drove in 10 runs.

📊 Live Dodgers vs. Brewers odds

With the near dead even moneyline splits (52/48 in favor of the Dodgers), it isn't surprising to see very little movement in the odds to this point. Those sportsbooks that initially shaded in L.A.'s favor (BetMGM went from -125 to -130, Caesars went from -120 to -125) have since reversed course, with the line ending up more favoring Milwaukee relative to the opening number.

There has been no line movement at any of the top sports betting sites with respect to the total, which means it is likely this game goes off with an O/U of 9 runs.

📈 Dodgers vs. Brewers betting trends

🚑 Dodgers vs. Brewers injuries

📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Brewers

• Date: Saturday, May 23
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wis.)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Dodgers starter: Roki Sasaki (2-3, 5.09 ERA)
• Brewers starter: Robert Gasser (0-0, 4.50 ERA)