⚾ Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 23
The National League Central has been the most competitive division in baseball, in large part because of the surprising starts from the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds. The two rivals play the second game of a split doubleheader from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). The matchup is a virtual pick'em with each team assigned -110 moneyline odds, with a starting pitching matchup between Kyle Leahy and Chase Petty.
My Cardinals vs. Reds prediction calls for a slugfest in this divisional game, which means St. Louis rookie JJ Wetherholt is likely to fill up the stat sheet. But it is a scorching-hot Cincinnati slugger whose home run odds I find value in to round out my MLB picks.
⚾ Cardinals vs. Reds picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 (-105 via bet365) | 1u → 0.95u | These teams played several high-scoring games in Cincinnati last year |
| JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-155 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.65u | Wetherholt has torched NL Central competition to start his rookie season |
| Spencer Steer to hit a home run (+590 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.48u | I'm backing Spencer Steer to bring his hitting streak to 12 games with a home run tonight |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.08 units
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🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Reds?
St. Louis has the second-best road record in the league, and I expect it to win the second leg of this doubleheader given Cincinnati's poor struggles in May.
Score prediction: Cardinals 6, Reds 5
💰 Cardinals vs. Reds prediction & best bet
Over 9.5 (-105)
Since April 13, St. Louis averaged 4.5 runs per game while ranking in the top half of the league in BABIP, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. In that span, the Reds were also fourth in home runs, and both teams were in the top 12 in wRC+.
St. Louis has been long due regression from a pitching perspective, as it ranks 13th in starting pitching ERA but 27th in xERA. Its bullpen also hasn’t been the most reliable all season, ranked 23rd in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
📡 SBR Edge: Head-to-head slugfests
Five of the final 10 head-to-head meetings between the Cardinals and Reds last year had 10 or more runs scored, including three of the last four at Great American Ball Park.
🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Reds player prop bet
JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-155)
JJ Wetherholt has loved playing against division rivals early in his career. In nine games against NL Central opponents, he has gone over this projected total seven times, including five times on hits alone with multi-hit games.
Wetherholt is in his much better hitting split facing a right-handed pitcher, as he is slashing .258/.367/.461 against righties and .196/.338/.304 against southpaws.
We are getting great value on this wager as Chase Petty hasn't allowed a hit in nine at-bats to left-handed batters. Petty generated just an 18.4% whiff rate in his first start and allowed a 10% barrel rate, and that should create traffic on the basepaths for Wetherholt’s at-bats in the later innings after he leads off as the first batter of the game.
💣 Cardinals vs. Reds home run prediction
Spencer Steer to hit a home run (+590)
Kyle Leahy hasn't allowed a home run in 16 1/3 innings spanning three starts, but all six of his homers allowed this season have come on the road, with two of the six being to right-handed batters.
Spencer Steer is amid an 11-game hitting streak, during which he batted .348 while scoring 13 runs. His batting average is up 58 points from last month with the weather warming up, and he has increased his fly ball rate in each of his first five big league seasons, culminating with a 34.8% fly ball rate currently.
Meanwhile, Leahy's 1.2 HR/9 rate is more than double from last year, and his 15.6% pull air percentage compared to his career-low 10.6% pull air percentage from last year bode well for Steer’s chances to go deep at a hitter-friendly ballpark.
🚀 Cardinals vs. Reds same-game parlay
Since I'm backing the Over as my best game pick, it makes sense to support that with two other legs of this same-game parlay that support solid offensive days from one of each team's best sluggers. To give myself more of a chance to cash this wager, I'm swapping Steer's home run prop bet for him to drive in a run, which he has done in half of his last 10 games.
💵 Cardinals vs. Reds SGP picks
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-155)
- Spencer Steer Over 0.5 RBIs (+170)
Best odds: +748 via FanDuel (0.1u -> .75u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 99-146-1 | +28.66 units ✅ | +18.1% ✅ |
| Game picks | 33-21 | +9.79 units ✅ | +5.8% ✅ |
| Player props | 66-125 | +18.87 units ✅ | +18.2% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Reds: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wouldn't argue with anyone waiting to wager on this game until seeing how the first game of the doubleheader plays out.
Either way, I expect a shootout between two teams that have had difficulty with run prevention. There is also an opportunity to get involved with the total with live in-game betting, especially if it's playing out like a pitcher's duel early. Cincinnati's MLB-worst 8.07 bullpen ERA (and 16 home runs allowed among its relievers) were a big reason the Reds started out with the worst record of any team in May (4-13).
📊 Live Cardinals vs. Reds odds
The line has jumped the fence at DraftKings and FanDuel, though curiously neither were in agreement with which team was favored with respect to the opening number. I suspect whoever wins the first game of the doubleheader, especially if it is in convincing fashion, will have the line shade in its favor during the afternoon.
FanDuel was the only top sports betting site to open with an O/U of 10, but it was quickly bet down to 9.5 and aligned with the rest of the market. I don't envision much further movement based on the near dead-even betting splits (54/46 in slight favor of the Over) thus far.
📈 Cardinals vs. Reds betting trends
| Cardinals | Statistic | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| 28-21 | W-L record | 26-24 |
| 29-20 | Run line record | 29-21 |
| 22-24-3 | O/U record | 31-18-1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 4.24 | Team ERA | 4.71 |
| .240 | Team batting avg. | .229 |
| .709 | OPS | .706 |
🚑 Cardinals vs. Reds injuries
📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Reds
- Date: Saturday, May 23
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Cardinals starter: Kyle Leahy (5-3, 3.94 ERA)
- Reds starter: Chase Petty (0-0, 4.76 ERA)
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