⚾ Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, April 15

The first two games of this divisional series couldn’t have been more different, and now it all comes down to a decisive rubber match with both teams’ aces taking the mound.

My Cubs vs. Phillies prediction envisions the Shota Imanaga vs. Jesus Luzardo matchup becoming an evening when positive regression begins for the latter. But overall we're set for a pitcher's duel, which makes several Unders appealing for my MLB picks, including the game total.

The first pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park (ESPN), with the Phillies as the -143 favorites.

⚾ Cubs vs. Phillies picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 1.15 units | Max profit: 2.82 units

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Phillies?

The Phillies will win mostly because the real and true version of Luzardo will begin to show up after some tough early-season luck. Luzardo has been piling up strikeouts regardless, and now after two offensive eruptions to begin this series and a combined 34 runs, he'll do his part to produce a very different game tonight.

Score prediction: Phillies 4, Cubs 3

💰 Cubs vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

Under 8.5 (+100)

This is a play primarily rooted in Luzardo being released from the grasp of early-season baseball weirdness.

Yes, his 6.23 ERA is ugly, but the underlying metrics show that doesn't reflect his true performance. Luzardo's expected ERA is far lower at 2.82, via Baseball Savant. Remarkably, he also sits in the 92nd percentile or above in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout percentage, and hard-hit percentage.

Some quality pitches and have been finding gaps and infield holes, and the results will stabilize soon, especially if his astronomical 13.5 K/9 stays around that level.

🔥 Best Cubs vs. Phillies player prop bet

Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 strikeouts (-106)

Imanaga has been dazzling to begin the campaign, but he's set to fall back to early-career norms in one area.

His K/9 sits at 11.3, far higher than the southpaw's 7.3 last season. Eventually, his hard-hit rate of 44.4% that's in just the 31st percentile will lead to more traffic on the base paths and a shorter night on the mound.

The effectiveness of his four-seamer is also likely to decline. A pitch he's throwing 46% of the time is generating a .217 slugging percentage, which comes after opposing batters slugged .567 off the same offering last year.

💣 Cubs vs. Phillies home run prediction

Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+585)

Luzardo is indeed performing much better than his ERA indicates, but avoiding barrels hasn't been a strength when he does allow contact. His barrel percentage rests at a pedestrian 7.3 this season.

He brings that into a matchup with Alex Bregman, who posted an .855 OPS against lefties last year with a .319 batting average. Bregman is also squaring up pitches at a 39.6% rate (98th percentile), and he'll be difficult to strikeout with a chase rate at 14.4% (99th percentile).

The third baseman has recorded a hit in six of his last seven games too, including two contests with three knocks.

🚀 Cubs vs. Phillies same-game parlay

We're sticking with two largely correlated legs here through the game total Under and Imanaga staying Under his strikeout total.

Then taking the Phillies on the first five innings moneyline adds a nice little boost, and it keeps the focus on Luzardo's positive regression while avoiding Philadelphia's struggling bullpen and its 4.64 ERA (21st).

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💡 How I'm betting Cubs vs. Phillies: MLB strategy

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My confidence in the baseball gods finally smiling upon Luzardo is reflected in the full-unit wager on the game total Under. There's admittedly some risk tied to the scuffling Phillies bullpen, but that's mitigated if Luzardo goes deep enough given the brilliance of his under-the-hood metrics.

While Imanaga has been impressive too, I'm equally confident in his strikeout regression, especially against a Phillies offense that posted the sixth-best OPS against lefties last year.

📊 Live Cubs vs. Phillies odds

The total widely opened at 9 before moving down to 8.5. Bettors have been capitalizing, with a resounding 73% of the wagers at DraftKings coming in on the Over. I wouldn't play the Under if there ends up being more downward movement.

There are mixed offerings, with DraftKings now moving back to 9, though at a comparatively less appealing -122. I remain confident enough in Luzardo to stay with the lower number, and FanDuel's 8.5.

📈 Cubs vs. Phillies betting trends

🚑 Cubs vs. Phillies injuries

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Phillies

• Date: Wednesday, April 15
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (City, State)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Shota Imanaga (0-1, 2.81 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Jesus Luzardo (1-2, 6.23 ERA)