Best MLB Player Props Today Thursday, Oct. 2: Best Bets for Wild Card Series

Three teams try to make history and become the first to win a best-of-three series under the new format when losing the first game as we dive into our best MLB player props today. 

My MLB picks look to build off yesterday’s incredible 4-1 day that included three plus-money cashes (+165, +120, +116). 

I back two Cleveland Guardians players to help them advance to the ALDS and increase their World Series odds. My other best plays tackle the other two games on Thursday’s slate and offer a mix of pitcher and batter props.

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player prop bets for Wild Card Series; odds subject to change.

• Slade Cecconi Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Steven Kwan Over 0.5 runs (+141 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Yu Darvish Under 3.5 strikeouts (+102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 RBI (+269 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Best MLB player props for Oct. 2

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Slade Cecconi Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-145) ⭐⭐⭐

The Guardians surprised many by naming Slade Cecconi their Game 3 starter over September's AL Rookie of the Month, Joey Cantillo, as the latter went 2-0 with a 1.55 ERA. But even though Cecconi’s only postseason experience is two blowout losses in the 2023 NLCS, this wager is more about Detroit’s ice-cold lineup and the starting pitcher’s likely short leash.

Detroit’s September struggles mainly stemmed from an offense that ranked 26th in wRC+ while striking out at a 26% clip. It is likely kicking itself that it has to play this elimination game today after going 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position while leaving 15 runners on base in Game 2, its most in a playoff game in franchise history.

Oddsmakers are not expecting a long outing from Cecconi, as the Under on his 12.5 outs recorded has a 58.33% implied probability at -140 odds at BetMGM. With Cecconi not expected to work much a second time through the batting order, that makes these -145 odds manageable compared to the -161 on the high end of the market.

A $10 winning wager through BetMGM’s -145 odds would net $6.90 in profits.

⬆️ Steven Kwan Over 0.5 runs (+141) ⭐⭐⭐

Detroit’s season lies on the arm of Jack Flaherty, which is ominous considering the team went just 2-8 in his final 10 starts, with two of those losses to Cleveland by a combined 9-1.

Flaherty actually pitched to a 2.96 ERA against playoff teams this season but also pitched to a 4.64 ERA overall, which ranked 56th out of 70 starting pitchers who threw 150-plus innings.

Cleveland entered the playoffs 28th in runs per game and wRC+. But Detroit also ranked outside the top 10 in starters ERA and in the bottom half of the league in bullpen ERA, and Steven Kwan has the second-most hits (albeit in a bigger sample size) of any Guardians player against Flaherty.

If Kwan crosses the plate today, a $10 winning wager at +141 odds and a 41.49% implied probability would pay out $14.10 in profits.

⬇️ Yu Darvish Under 3.5 strikeouts (+102) ⭐⭐⭐

The Cubs ranked 11th in lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of July. And even though that ranking dipped to 15th from August on, they still should make enough contact off of former Chicago righty Yu Darvish in his limited time on the mound to stay Under this projected total.

Darvish has an O/U of 9.5 outs recorded, which does not seem as crazy now after Dylan Cease was removed after eight outs and 69 pitches yesterday. 

While I would normally suggest that Darvish would be given a longer leash with Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller likely unavailable out of the bullpen, starting pitcher Michael King awaits to pitch a big chunk of the middle innings. 

There is a sizable difference between the -110 odds for this Under on the high end of the market and DraftKings’ +102 odds. DraftKings is the only one among the best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds for this wager, and that is where I’m laying down my $10 bet in the hopes of netting $10.20 in profits.

⬆️ Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 RBI (+269) ⭐⭐⭐

Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner has driven in at least one run in four of Chicago’s last five home games against the Padres. And no one had a better batting average (.371) in the National League with runners in scoring position than Hoerner, which was a big reason for his 61 RBI while batting primarily out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup.

These odds became even more favorable overnight, increasing from +253 at DraftKings to +269 at a 27.10% implied probability. If Hoerner does drive in a run, my $10 wager would result in $26.90 in profits.

🔥 Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+135) ⭐⭐⭐

Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman entered these playoffs with 19 home runs, 54 RBI, and a .789 OPS in 99 career playoff games. He is now one of eight MLB players to have played in at least 100 career postseason games, and his experience in winner-take-all games is invaluable.

Bregman has reached base five times through the first two games of this series, with one of his three hits going for extra bases. And this is the right split to oppose Yankees righty Cam Schlittler, as right-handed hitters have a 66-point higher slugging percentage than lefties against the rookie pitcher. 

The +135 odds at Caesars carry a 42.55% implied probability. If Bregman records two or more total bases, my $10 winning wager would return $13.50 in profits.

My best Red Sox vs. Yankees player props break down the entire game and feature a couple more bonus plays for Game 3 of the series.