⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, June 8
When it comes to home run betting, you want to live in the tire fire flames happening on the mound, and I'm doing that today while targeting three pitchers who are either imploding or in the process of getting there.
My home run predictions today are focusing on Kyle Schwarber, Christian Walker, and Christian Yelich, who are facing starting pitchers highly vulnerable to long ball damage. And in Schwarber's case, a lefty in Patrick Corbin who has been living dangerously, leading to an ideal opportunity for my MLB home run picks.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 8
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber home run (+287 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.57u | Can continue to turn Patrick Corbin back into a pumpkin. |
| Christian Walker home run (+367 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.73u | Grayson Rodriguez is sitting on a 9.50 ERA. |
| Christian Yelich home run (+480 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.96u | Boasts a .913 OPS six games into June. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.26 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+287)
Patrick Corbin has been living on the edges for a while, and it's a scary scene when you pop the hood.
Really, it's bewildering how he's still chugging along at all with an expected ERA of 5.27 that's far above his actual mark of 3.98. The southpaw is also generating dangerously few strikeouts too with a 6.1 K/9.
Now the journeyman will take all that against Kyle Schwarber, the MLB home run leader (23) who doesn't struggle at all against lefties while batting from the same side. In fact, he excels while posting a .976 OPS.
📡 SBR Edge: Sinking feeling
Corbin leans heavily on his sinker against lefties while throwing it 31% of the time, and Schwarber is slugging .765 against that pitch, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run picks today
Christian Walker to hit a home run (+367)
We don't need to look under the hood for Grayson Rodriguez, as the car has careened off the road and smoke is already billowing out.
A return from a lengthy injury-induced absence couldn't have gone worse for the righty. He sports a 9.50 ERA over four starts, and that's coming from being a missile factory. His hard-hit rate allowed of 50.0 is the 13th-worst leaguewide.
That's happening in part because he can't induce any chase, or get hitters off a fastball he throws 52% of the time. His 21.6% chase rate makes Rodriguez one of just six pitchers in the bottom percentile.
A fastball-reliant pitcher whose low on deception is a mouthwatering matchup for Walker then, as he's slugging .541 with a 52.2% hard-hit rate against heaters.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+480)
Athletics starter Jeffery Springs has reverted to his natural launchpad state while allowing seven home runs across just his last four starts. His 14 total put him tied for the seventh-most MLB-wide.
That downward spiral doesn't bode well for him against Christian Yelich. The veteran doesn't generally boast the same power as earlier in his career, but he's still fully capable of sizzling for stretches. Yelich is doing that now with his .913 OPS across the first six games of June.
But what's especially appealing about this matchup is that the southpaw Springs uses his changeup more against righties, and Yelich has been annihilating anything offspeed. He's slugging 1.083 against offspeed offerings, with a staggering 75% hard-hit rate when thrown a changeup.
💸 More MLB player props
Dive into Dustin Saracini's best strikeout props today if you're looking to fatten your wallet more.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Aside from cornering the market on sluggers named Christian, today we're also locking in on hitters in pristine matchups facing starters who have either already gone off the rails, or in the case of Corbin, are teetering at best.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kyle Schwarber home run (+287)
- Christian Walker home run (+367)
- Christian Yelich home run (+480)
Best odds: +10382 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.08u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-113-1 | -8.40 units β | -14.9% β |
| Home run picks | 18-76-0 | -2.70 units β | -13.6% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-24 | -1.08 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The approach today is simple but potentially very effective: Target pitchers who are either imploding or on the verge of it.
If you're looking to invest a little more in a home run bet today, all three of the options above are fine choices. But Yelich is especially appealing at the longest odds of the trio. His production against offspeed pitches really stands out, including a .417 batting average.
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