⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, June 1
There are more interleague matchups (four) than divisional games (three) amid Monday’s nine-game MLB slate, and more unfamiliarity between pitchers and opposing batters makes for some interesting home run predictions today.
Seattle Mariners slugger Julio Rodriguez is coming off the best month of his career from a power perspective, making him the focus of one of my best MLB home run picks. I also add two sluggers from two other West Coast games in Mike Trout and Ketel Marte, and round out my four-pack of plays with a pick from the Marlins-Nationals divisional rivalry.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Marte's .539 slugging percentage in May was a big improvement over the first two months |
| CJ Abrams to hit a home run (+514 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.29u | Sandy Alcantara has allowed five home runs in his last two starts |
| Mike Trout to hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.85u | Kyle Freeland has been just as bad on the road as he has been at Coors Field |
| Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+540 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.35u | Rodriguez hit his most home runs ever in a month in May |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.68 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+475)
Ketel Marte has a better batting average and slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. But he is in his better split from a home run perspective facing Dodgers righty Emmet Sheehan, as seven of his nine home runs have come from the left side.
In a 15-game stretch entering the weekend, Marte batted .406 with four of his 26 hits going for home runs. He is 1-for-4 with a home run in a small sample size against Sheehan, who ranks in the bottom third of the league in ground ball rate and barrels, and is on pace for his worst xSLG.
📡 SBR Edge: The slugging Mariners
Seattle hit eight home runs in its first two games of the weekend series against the Diamondbacks, its most since it belted 10 homers in the first two games of a series in 1999 against the Twins.
🔥 More home run picks today
CJ Abrams to hit a home run (+514)
Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara has been trending in the wrong direction for quite some time. Prior to his last start, he had pitched to a 0.74 ERA and 2.21 FIP in his first three starts, and a 5.76 ERA and 4.53 FIP over his next eight outings. In his last start, he allowed eight earned runs and three homers in a road start against the Blue Jays.
Perhaps the early workload for Alcantara messed with him, as he went seven-plus innings in each of his first three starts en route to career bests in xBA, hard-hit percentage, and swinging strike percentage. Seven of his nine homers allowed have been to left-handed batters, who are slugging .491 against him now.
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+340)
Among pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 40 innings, Kyle Freeland’s 2.55 HR/9 rate ranks third-worst. Freeland’s home ERA (8.05) and road ERA (8.10) are comparable, with the southpaw giving up seven of his 12 home runs in just 4 1/3 more innings in road starts. Thus, he isn’t just a victim of pitching at Coors Field.
Freeland has allowed a whopping 11 of his 12 home runs to right-handed batters. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is 2-for-9 with a home run in his career off Freeland, and looks to add to his league-leading run total entering Sunday by driving himself in and keeping pace with his highest OPS and OPS+ in four seasons.
Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+540)
Julio Rodriguez finished May with 10 homers, two more than he has ever hit in a single month in his career. His third dinger of a three-game home run streak came against Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson, who had never allowed more than two home runs in any of his previous 89 starts.
Through his first 58 games of each of the previous four seasons, Rodriguez never had a slugging percentage better than .442 or a wRC+ higher than 122. This year, he was slugging .457 through 58 games with a 125 wRC+, and also had his second-best on-base percentage and strikeout rate of any season in that split dating back to 2022.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
While Marte, Trout, and Rodriguez have all homered in small sample sizes against today's opposing starting pitcher, this four-pack of plays and subsequent home run parlay had more to do with each of those opposing pitcher's struggles entering today's matchups. And even though most of these sluggers are the most feared home run hitters in their lineups, their combined odds still make for a juicy four-leg parlay payout.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+410)
- CJ Abrams to hit a home run (+490)
- Mike Trout to hit a home run (+340)
- Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+540)
Best odds: +84633 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 84.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 111-168-1 | +30.92 units ✅ | +17.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 74-143 | +21.45 units ✅ | +18.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
With a smaller nine-game MLB slate leaving less data to scour, I didn't mind going more chalky with my home run picks today, with all four sluggers having some of the shortest odds to go yard relative to their team. What mattered most was their success against the pitchers they were facing, and those pitchers' struggles, especially in the case of Alcantara's two recent horrible starts, and Freeland's season-long issues.
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