MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (July 29)
We went 1-for-2 on our home run picks Tuesday, and we're looking to build on our 7.5% ROI in MLB this season. Our MLB home run predictions today feature Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Michael Busch on a loaded Wednesday slate.
My MLB home run picks target these hitters because they should be able to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups today.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 29
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+215 via FanDuel) | 0.93u β 2u | Ohtani has a .683 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Hancock throws 77% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Mike Trout to homer (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.63u β 2u | Wesneski threw 56% fastballs vs. RHH in 2025, and Trout has a .573 xSLG vs. fastballs. |
| Michael Busch to homer (+549 via DraftKings) | 0.36u β 2u | Busch has a .485 xSLG vs. fastballs, May's go-to pitch vs. LHH. |
Total wagered: 1.92 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+215)
We cashed on Ohtani (+220) Tuesday night, and I'm going back to the well with him against Emerson Hancock today. Hancock throws fastballs 77% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Ohtani has a .683 xSLG against them.
The Dodgers' two-way star ranks fifth in MLB in Brls/PA% (10.2), so even though he has homered only once over his last 10 games, the analytics suggest he's still a good bet to hit for power moving forward. Ohtani to homer (+215) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Home Cooking
Ohtani has homered in five of his last seven games at Dodger Stadium.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Mike Trout (+320)
Trout, Trout, Trout ... he hasn't homered in 15 straight games, but he has a great pitching matchup tonight to hit for power.
The Angels' star outfielder has a .573 xSLG against fastballs, which Hayden Wesneski threw 56% of the time to right-handed hitters in 2025 (he's making his season debut today).
Wesneski allowed 2.0 HR/9 in 2025, making him a strong candidate to give up a long ball today, and Trout is the favorite on the Angels to homer. Trout to homer (+320) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Michael Busch (+549)
Dustin May has been somewhat lucky not to have allowed more home runs this season.
He ranks in the sixth percentile in hard-hit percentage (46.1) and the 17th percentile in average exit velocity (90.2). More importantly, he throws fastballs 62% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Busch has a .485 xSLG against them.
I understand why Pete Crow-Armstrong has shorter odds to homer tonight, but Busch's implied probability of 15.41% at these odds is definitely too low. Busch to homer (+549) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB player props for Wednesday
Looking for more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and best strikeout props today.
π€ Most-bet home run hitters today
Betting insights via DraftKings.
Most-bet HR hitters (by handle)
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves)
- Jackson Chourio (Brewers)
Most-bet HR hitters (by tickets)
- James Wood (Nationals)
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
- Esmerlyn Valdez (Pirates)
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee | Twins | To record 1+ total runs | +140 |
| Tarik Skubal | Tigers | To record 9+ K's | +110 |
| Cal Raleigh | Mariners | To record 1+ total runs | +115 |
| Nelson Velazquez | Cardinals | To hit 1+ home runs | +600 |
| Tarik Skubal | Tigers | To record 8+ K's | -165 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer (+212)
- Mike Trout to homer (+306)
- Michael Busch to homer (+549)
Best odds: +8374 via DraftKings (0.05u -> 4.19u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20-2 | +2.18 units β | 7.5% β |
| Player props | 6-13-1 | +3.09 units β | 21.6% β |
| Game props | 2-2 | -0.78 units β | -9.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-4 | -0.25 units β | -100% β |
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