Guardians vs. Reds Prediction & Picks: Today's MLB Odds for Wednesday, July 29

A day after two in-state rivals split a doubleheader, the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds finish a three-game interleague series tonight at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). My Guardians vs. Reds prediction expects a high-scoring affair, led by a big day at the plate offensively for Jose Ramirez, while Elly De La Cruz fills the stat sheet with the last of my MLB picks.

The starting pitching matchup features Joey Cantillo and Brady Singer, and the Guardians are -135 betting favorites.

⚾ Guardians vs. Reds picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Guardians vs. Reds?

Cleveland has feasted on poor teams all season, and that has me backing it to take this series finale against Cincinnati.

Score prediction: Guardians 6, Reds 4

💰 Guardians vs. Reds prediction & best bet

Over 9 (-105)

Cleveland entered yesterday’s doubleheader amid a five-game losing streak while being shut out in two of those losses. The Guardians batted .170 as a team during the streak, while scoring 10 runs and slugging .492. Their biggest concern was batting .143 with runners in scoring position, but was just 1-for-31 in such at-bats in their previous four. 

Those issues seemed remedied by the opportunity to face Cincinnati’s poor pitching staff, as they scored six in the first game. I trust the Reds to score off southpaw Joey Cantillo, as they rank sixth in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitchers.

🔥 Best Guardians vs. Reds player prop bet

Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105)

Elly De La Cruz is in his much better split as a switch hitter facing a southpaw in Joey Cantillo. From the right side of the plate, De La Cruz is slashing .326/.398/.663 while belting eight of his 18 home runs, all in 157 fewer at-bats than against right-handed pitchers.

De La Cruz entered this series going over this projected total in eight of 12 games, while cashing the Over on hits alone (two or more) four times in that span. The speedster was also using his legs more to put himself in better scoring position, as he has stolen four of his 18 bases in the last week. 

Cantillo has allowed nine earned runs over his last 8.2 innings spanning two starts, and a heavy workload is likely the key factor in his ERA declining for the third straight month.

💣 Guardians vs. Reds home run prediction

Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+290)

Jose Ramirez looked rusty after a five-week layoff, slashing .188/.278/.188 in four games since coming off the IL. But the slugger’s career history against Brady Singer is why I’m confident he will go yard tonight.

Ramirez is 12-for-31 in his career against Singer. His 1.267 OPS is a product of five of his 12 hits going for extra bases, including three home runs. 

Singer had a HR/9 rate of 1.1 or better in each of his first six seasons, but is on pace for a much worse 1.8 HR/9 rate this year. His two worst fly ball rates are each of his two seasons with the Reds, which isn’t ideal in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

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🚀 Guardians vs. Reds same-game parlay

The three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping the Over cash, especially since I have backed player props from each team's two biggest offensive threats. For this SGP, I swapped Ramirez's home run odds for him to merely record a hit, which is a much safer play considering he did not record an extra-base hit in four games after coming off the IL.

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The Under has cashed in each of Singer's last four starts as a home underdog. But his career struggles against the Guardians plus Cincinnati's top-6 rankings in several offensive metrics against southpaws has me bucking that trend. I will be looking at De La Cruz's other props to potentially add to my portfolio, though his home run prop is one of the few offering a plus-money return.

📊 Live Guardians vs. Reds odds

There's a significant 11-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between Cleveland's shortest moneyline odds at -132 through FanDuel and the team's -143 odds at the other end of the market at bet365, which carry a 58.85% implied probability. The Reds are one of the only underdogs on today's slate getting a majority of the betting action, as 57% of the early wagers expect Cincinnati to win the rubber match.

The best sports betting sites are all in unison with an O/U of 9. There has not been any movement in the total yet, as all have held firm at that opening number. That might not change before first pitch given the near dead-even betting splits that are 54/46 in support of the Under.

🤑 Guardians vs. Reds betting splits

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📈 Guardians vs. Reds betting trends

🚑 Guardians vs. Reds injuries

📺 How to watch Guardians vs. Reds

• Date: Wednesday, July 29
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Guardians starter: Joey Cantillo (8-6, 4.02 ERA)
• Reds starter: Brady Singer (5-9, 4.53 ERA)