MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, Aug. 9
My home run predictions today fade two of the worst pitching staffs in the majors, as two of my four MLB home run picks oppose the Athletics and Rockies pitching staffs.
Jarren Duran of the Red Sox may be hovering around the Mendoza Line from a batting average perspective, but his 16 home runs while playing a key part in MLB’s hottest offense makes him a focal point of today’s wagers. I also expect one of the newest Bronx Bombers, Luis Garcia Jr., to go deep, and I add value plays on Alec Burleson and Daylen Lile.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 9
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile to hit a home run (+525 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.31u | Lile looks to continue Washington’s MLB lead for home runs |
| Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Garcia Jr. has a 1.300 OPS in 10 career at-bats against Grant Holmes |
| Jarren Duran to hit a home run (+470 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.18u | Duran has been one of Boston’s hottest hitters during its MLB-best win streak |
| Alec Burleson to hit a home run (+390 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 0.98u | Burleson has homered twice in just five at-bats against Michael Lorenzen |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.41 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Daylen Lile (+525)
With James Wood on the IL and Luis Garcia Jr. no longer with the team, other Nationals players (besides CJ Abrams) need to step up to maintain the torrid MLB-leading home run pace. Daylen Lile has a great chance to do just that today, facing Brady Singer against whom he is 3-for-3 with a home run and four RBI.
Singer is on pace to see his ERA worsen for the third consecutive month. He has allowed a whopping 15 home runs and a .846 OPS to left-handed batters, and could be fatigued with three straight starts of 100-plus pitches.
- Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
📡 SBR Edge: Home run-prone Singer
Brady Singer had never had worse than a 1.1 HR/9 rate in his first six MLB seasons, but is on pace for a 1.7 HR/9 rate this year.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Luis Garcia Jr. (+375)
Luis Garcia Jr. led the NL in slugging when he was traded to the Yankees, and the slugger has hit safely in three of four starts (with a home run) in pinstripes. He is well rested today after platooning with Paul Goldschmidt against a southpaw, and his bat will be relied upon after producing four hits and a home run in 10 career at-bats against Grant Holmes.
Holmes hasn’t allowed a home run in four of his last five starts, but the Nationals tagged him for three home runs in that one poor outing. The fact that he has induced more fly balls than ground balls in six of his last seven starts does not play too well against a left-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jarren Duran (+470)
I felt compelled to ride a Red Sox offense that entered this series slashing .288/.517/.885 with 17 HR and averaging 7.4 runs per game during an eight-game winning streak. Boston’s offense looked even more enticing when facing an Athletics pitching staff that had a collective MLB-worst 5.49 ERA while going 5-28 since June 27.
Jarren Duran logged a .625 OPS over a 30-day stretch entering the weekend. But those numbers improved drastically to a .830 OPS over the last 15 days, with the slugger’s last three homers coming in a seven-day stretch. He is in a great split when facing J.T. Ginn, whose OPS allowed to left-handed batters is 236 points worse than what he’s allowed to righties.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+390)
Few players have had as much success against today’s opposing starting pitcher in as few at-bats as Alec Burleson has had against Michael Lorenzen. Burleson is 4-for-5 with two home runs against the righty, who is not just a victim of Coors Field’s altitude. Lorenzen has a 5.16 ERA and .313 OBA in 13 road appearances (12 starts) this season.
Burleson entered yesterday in the top 15 of all players in OPS, and he entered the weekend with a .926 OPS over the last 15 days. He was also slashing .326/.402/.558 against right-handed pitching, and he ranked seventh among all NL sluggers with a 153 wRC+ over the last month, to go along with a top-18 BABIP.
- Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Daylen Lile to homer (+525)
- Luis Garcia Jr. to homer (+375)
- Jarren Duran to homer (+450)
- Alec Burleson to homer (+310)
Best odds: +66845 via bet365 (0.1u -> 66.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 219-345-1 | +49.50 units ✅ | +13.8% ✅ |
| Home run picks | 86-65-1 | +14.26 units ✅ | +7.9% ✅ |
| HR parlays | 133-280 | +35.24 units ✅ | +17.2% ✅ |
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