Astros vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Aug. 9
The Astros and Padres are playing in one of just three games on today's slate featuring two teams with winning records. My Astros vs. Padres prediction expects a high-scoring finale in the rubber match of this three-game series, while I back a slugger from each team to have solid days offensively to balance my MLB picks.
The starting pitching matchup is between Cristian Javier and Randy Vasquez, with first pitch from Petco Park in San Diego scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). The Padres are a -125 betting favorite.
⚾ Astros vs. Padres picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.87u | Both teams have been profitable to their team total Overs for much of the last month |
| Cam Smith Over 0.5 RBI (+239 via DraftKings) | 1u → 2.39u | Smith hasn’t gone consecutive days without an RBI in August |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+350 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.88u | Javier is one of the biggest fly-ball pitchers in the sport |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.14 units
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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Padres?
Houston’s solid 28-14 record against teams over .500 compared to San Diego’s 22-34 record in that split gives the Astros the edge for me in this rubber match.
Score prediction: Astros 6, Padres 4
💰 Astros vs. Padres prediction & best bet
Over 8.5 (-115)
Cristian Javier turned in his first quality start in his last outing, scattering seven hits over six innings while limiting the Blue Jays to three runs. But I am selling high on a pitcher who entered that start with a 12% walk rate, 4.94 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP over the last three seasons.
Javier is not a strikeout pitcher, with only one outing of more than four strikeouts this season. That could get him into trouble against a Padres offense that has the NL’s second-highest BABIP in home games against right-handed pitchers since the start of July.
📡 SBR Edge: Over trends abound
Entering yesterday, Houston had cashed its team total Over in 19 of its last 30 away games (+8.05 units, 24% ROI). Meanwhile, San Diego was 14-8 to its team total Over in its previous 22 games (+6.10 units, 25% ROI).
🔥 Best Astros vs. Padres player prop bet
Cam Smith Over 0.5 RBI (+239)
Yordan Alvarez gets most of the praise among Astros sluggers, and rightly so. He entered the weekend leading the AL outright in hits, runs, home runs, and RBI, and Rogers Hornsby in 1922 was the only player in MLB history to finish a season atop all four categories. But with Alvarez’s player prop odds inflated amid a Triple Crown campaign, I find much more value in the quieter Cam Smith from the bottom-third of the Astros lineup.
Smith started yesterday with a seven-game hitting streak, during which he slashed .433/.452/.767. He has seemingly benefited from a recent three-game layoff to reset, as he was slashing .318/.375/.615 in his previous 48 plate appearances.
💣 Astros vs. Padres home run prediction
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+350)
Cristian Javier is not known as a ground-ball inducer, as he has a 25.9% ground ball rate this season. And while the average MLB pitcher has allowed a 16.8% pull air percentage this season, Javier’s pull air percentage sits at a career-worst 28.2%, and has only been lower than 26% once in his seven big league seasons.
At one point in late August last year, Javier had a fly ball rate above 60% against right-handed batters. That should help Fernando Tatis Jr.’s chances of hitting his 163rd career home run as a Padre, which would tie him for second on the franchise’s all-time list. He is in search of his third home run in a five-game span.
🚀 Astros vs. Padres same-game parlay
All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely to increase the chances of the Over cashing. Obviously, Tatis hitting a home run would cash the third leg of this SGP. But I'm swapping my home run wager for him to produce some combination of two hits, runs, or RBIs, which he has done in five straight games, including each of the last three in which he didn't go yard.
💵 Astros vs. Padres SGP picks
- Over 8.5
- Cam Smith Over 0.5 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Best odds: +996 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 219-345-1 | +49.50 units ✅ | +13.8% ✅ |
| Home run picks | 86-65-1 | +14.26 units ✅ | +7.9% ✅ |
| HR parlays | 133-280 | +35.24 units ✅ | +17.2% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Padres: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Cristian Javier was touted by many as a pitcher to buy low on, as he has pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 2.85 FIP with 17 strikeouts over his last 12 innings pitched. But his troubling splits against right-handed batters (.305/.417/.576 slash line) when facing the right-handed dominant Padres lineup gave me pause to buy low on him for at least this start.
It is also the reason why I opted for the Over instead of an Astros moneyline wager, even though Houston is 13-7 since the All-Star Break.
📊 Live Astros vs. Padres odds
📈 Astros vs. Padres betting trends
| Astros | Statistic | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| 60-58 | W-L record | 61-57 |
| 59-59 | Run line record | 65-53 |
| 63-51-4 | O/U record | 54-63-1 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 4.57 | Team ERA | 4.18 |
| .246 | Team batting avg. | .236 |
| .739 | OPS | .695 |
🚑 Astros vs. Padres injuries
📺 How to watch Astros vs. Padres
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 9
- First pitch: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- TV: NBC
- Astros starter: Cristian Javier (1-2, 6.59 ERA)
- Padres starter: Randy Vasquez (7-6, 4.19 ERA)
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