⚾ Best Home Run Predictions & Parlay Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, April 9
🤑 SBR Edge: Home run predictions (April 9)
Thursday's featured matchup is a power-hitting showcase as the Detroit Tigers wrap up their series at Target Field and the San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies. While early-season ballparks can be unpredictable, we're targeting elite barrel rates and favorable pitching matchups to find our edge. Fernando Tatis Jr. (+350) highlights our home run predictions - let's dig in and hit some bombs.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 9
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (+350) | 0.33u → 1.15u | Petco Park favorite; elite 90th percentile exit velocity |
| Kerry Carpenter (+320) | 0.33u → 1.06u | Power lefty vs. a righty in a hitter-friendly Target Field matchup |
| Manny Machado (+380) | 0.33u → 1.25u | Historically crushes Rockies pitching; high barrel rate this week |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (+440) | 0.33u → 1.45u | Anthony Kay has been getting barreled (32nd percentile), Bobby will take advantage. |
Total wagered: 1.33 units | Max profit: 4.91 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+350)
Tatis Jr. is off to an explosive start this April, even if the box scores haven't fully reflected his power output. He's currently ranking in the top tier of the league for average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Tatis is primed for a breakout performance at Petco Park against the Rockies tonight. Most of our best sports betting sites have this priced closer to +310, so grabbing the +350 while it's available provides significant value for one of the game's premier power hitters.
🤑 More MLB props
If you're looking for game bets, our Sean Tomlinson has you covered with his Diamondbacks vs. Mets win probability piece. Love some pitching matchups? Look no further than my best NRFI bets today.
🔥 More home run picks today
Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+320)
Carpenter has been a bright spot for the Tigers' offense. Heading into today's matchup at Target Field, he remains a statistical favorite due to his high barrel rate and matchup against Mick Abel, who's had a difficult time suppressing hard contact. While Target Field can play neutral, Carpenter’s power is stadium-independent; he ranks near the 87th percentile in barrel percentage, meaning when he makes contact, it’s usually loud.
Our Mike Spector covers this game in detail and locks in on Trevor Larnach in his Tigers vs. Twins predictions.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my four home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them. The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them and make a small fortune, but these long shot parlays have less than a 1% chance of hitting.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (+350)
- Kerry Carpenter (+320)
- Manny Machado (+380)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+440)
Best odds: +48889 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 48.88u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-5 | +2.09 units ✅ |
| NRFI picks | 7-5 | +2.09 units ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
When I'm walking myself through home run hitters, I'm prioritizing quality of contact metrics (barrel rate, ISO, hard-hit rate) and hunting fly ball pitchers in specific matchups. When you add in park factors it becomes easier to nail down hitters before a large slate of baseball kicks off. Remember to always have bankroll management front of mind before placing any type of plus-money wagers, and stick to your strategy.
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