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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Snell’s Hot Streak Continue vs. Mets?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 8, 2023 3:29 PM EDT • 4 min 30 sec read.

It's almost the MLB All-Star Break, and many teams are aiming to head into the break on a high note while earning series-clinching victories on Saturday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

The top three on DraftKings’ American League Cy Young leaderboard take the mound on Saturday. Framber Valdez (+200), Kevin Gausman (+350), and Gerrit Cole (+400) all look to add to their Cy Young resumes, and just one game separates all three of their teams in the wild-card race.      

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings and WynnBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Saturday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Chicago Cubs (+155) vs. New York Yankees (-180)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (-225) vs. Detroit Tigers (+190)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+110) vs. Minnesota Twins (-130)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (-125) vs. Chicago White Sox (+105)
  • Colorado Rockies (+200) vs. San Francisco Giants (-240)
  • Texas Rangers (-190) vs. Washington Nationals (+160)
  • Kansas City Royals (+155) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-180)
  • Oakland Athletics (+195) vs. Boston Red Sox (-230)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (OFF) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-110) vs. Miami Marlins (-110)
  • Cincinnati Reds (+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
  • Seattle Mariners (+115) vs. Houston Astros (-135)
  • Atlanta Braves (-145) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (+125)
  • Los Angeles Angels (OFF) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 
  • New York Mets (+145) vs. San Diego Padres (-170)

Saturday’s MLB best bets

  • Player Prop: Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 via DraftKings) vs. Royals ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Blake Snell Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Mets ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Phillies ML vs. Marlins (-105 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Saturday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Royals (+175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Cleveland Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez is second on the team among position players with a 2.3 WAR. He's also recorded a hit in six of seven games during July while slashing .333/.467/.667. That surge pushed him to the 100 wRC+ mark entering Friday, and he hit as many home runs in the infielder's last five games as Gimenez did in the previous 41. 

Gimenez now faces Kansas City Royals hurler Brady Singer amid the righty's best stretch of the season, with one earned run allowed over his previous 13 innings. However, Singer has still produced an ERA of 5.74 or worse in five of the first six innings of games. And left-handed hitters have been enjoying a much easier time elevating the ball off Singer. He's posted a 0.84 GO/AO ratio against lefties versus a 2.07 when facing righties.

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DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as FanDuel and Caesars are lower at +150 and +162 odds, respectively.

Check out our home run derby odds and home run derby bracket.

Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases vs. Athletics (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oakland Athletics starting pitchers rank 29th in ERA (6.27) and FIP (5.54) and 30th in xFIP (5.25). So we're compelled to back a Boston Red Sox batter at Fenway Park, which Ballpark Pal ranks second in park factors for runs scored and first for extra-base hits (doubles and triples).

A’s righty Paul Blackburn is allowing a .313 OBA and 1.67 WHIP to left-handed hitters in 2023, and the light-hitting Chicago White Sox batted .316 against him during his only July start. Devers’ batting average is 37 points higher at home versus the road this season. This is a four-star play, as he's been red-hot with a .391/.481/.609 slash line over the last seven days.

The best value is again found at DraftKings, as Devers’ odds to go Over 1.5 total bases reach as high as -130 through FanDuel.

Player prop: Blake Snell Under 1.5 earned runs allowed vs. Mets (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Blake Snell was MLB’s Pitch Hand Award winner for June after taking three of his five starts and pitching to a microscopic 0.87 ERA and .124 OBA. He's seemingly untouchable after working around seven hits and four walks to throw five scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels during his last start. Snell now faces a New York Mets lineup in its worse hitting split, as the team has gone 10-19 against southpaws versus a 32-27 against righties. 

New York’s offense is being given more credit than it deserves because the Mets enter this matchup averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 10 road contests. However, this is a three-star play because New York ranks 17th in wRC+ and 20th in OPS against southpaws. But the most troubling metric for Mets backers is their 28th-ranked BABIP against left-handed pitching (.271). And the opposing pitcher in this case entered Friday ranked third in the NL in strikeouts.

Caesars is in line with the low total of 1.5 earned runs, but it charges slightly higher -113 juice to back the Under.

Check out our MVP odds.

Saturday’s MLB game picks

Upset: Phillies ML vs. Marlins (-105 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Philadelphia Phillies have won 13 consecutive road games, and yet they're a coin-flip against the Miami Marlins, largely because Miami has won Braxton Garrett’s last seven starts and nine of his previous 10. However, Garrett’s 4.19 expected ERA compared to his 3.61 actual ERA suggests regression is coming, and he still ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in barrels and the bottom tenth in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity.

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Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has posted the lowest ERA (2.09) and second-best FIP (3.26), HR/9 rate (0.70), and ground-ball percentage (49%) of any Phillies starter since June 1. Miami is just .500 (10-10) against left-handers compared to 41-29 against righties. This is a four-star play primarily because Suarez has pitched to a 1.97 ERA in five road starts.

Check out our rookie of the year odds.

Saturday's MLB best bets made 8/6/2023 at 7:14 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”