MLB Home Run Derby Odds 2024: Favorites Alonso, Ozuna, Garcia Headline New-Look Event
Baseball fans dig the long ball, and there will be no shortage of moon shots when the top sluggers in MLB compete in the 2024 Home Run Derby, which is scheduled for tonight at 8 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Pete Alonso, who won this event in 2019 and 2021, is back for a fifth straight Derby and is the betting favorite by the Home Run Derby odds across our best sports betting sites. Another win this year would tie the New York Mets star with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most Derby titles since the event began in 1985.
Adolis Garcia follows him while representing the host Texas Rangers, with Marcell Ozuna in third and making his debut with the World Series odds contender Atlanta Braves. Gunnar Henderson - the first to commit to this event amid a breakout season for the Baltimore Orioles - is getting shorter than +500 odds across our MLB betting sites to win the All-Star slugging showcase.
In addition to our Home Run Derby picks, here's the latest on the 2024 Home Run Derby field, rules, and MLB odds to help make your MLB picks for this year's event.
Home Run Derby field 2024
It took some time to finalize the field after Henderson first committed on June 30, but the result is a diverse group that should put on a show on Monday.
Here's a look at all eight participants for the 2024 Home Run Derby, ranked by their home run total:
| Player | Home runs (as of July 15) | Longest HR in 2024 | Best Derby finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | 28 | 430 ft | N/A (debut) |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | 26 | 446 ft | N/A (debut) |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | 23 | 436 ft | 8th (2022) |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 19 | 431 ft | N/A (debut) |
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | 19 | 446 ft | 1st (2019, 2023) |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | 17 | 428 ft | 7th (2023) |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) | 16 | 468 ft | N/A (debut) |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | 11 | 427 ft | N/A (debut) |
Home Run Derby odds 2024
(Home Run Derby odds as of July 15 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +320 | +300 | +310 | +300 | +320 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +425 | +410 | +425 | +480 🔥 | +400 ❄️ |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +425 | +500 | +500 | +425 | +550 🔥 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +450 | +370 ❄️ | +375 | +400 | +500 🔥 |
| Adolis Garcia | +550 | +550 | +600 🔥 | +550 | +475 ❄️ |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 | +1200 | +1000 ❄️ |
| Jose Ramirez | +1400 | +1600 | +1200 | +1600 | +1200 |
| Alec Bohm | +1800 | +2100 🔥 | +2000 | +2000 | +1600 ❄️ |
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Home Run Derby predictions, expert analysis
Picks made Friday at 2 p.m. ET. Odds listed below may not reflect updated prices above.
It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Pete Alonso (+340) as the Derby favorite. He's the only former winner in the field and was the favorite last year before losing to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and his 195 home runs in this event are the most by any player in Home Run Derby history.
He didn't win either of the last two years, though, and this field is wide open to crown a first-time winner. Five players are making their Derby debuts, including Gunnar Henderson (+500), whose 27 home runs are the most by any player in the field and third-most in MLB behind only Aaron Judge (32) and Shohei Ohtani (28).
Marcell Ozuna (+500) ranks fourth in home runs (24) behind those three MLB MVP odds contenders, and he's rightfully pushing Alonso for the top spot in this contest. He might be the best pure slugger in the field with the best xSLG (.636) and barrel rate (18%), though Henderson leads this eight-man group in bat speed (75.8 MPH), average exit velocity (94 mph), and hard-hit rate (57.%).
While those would be my picks among the favorites - with Henderson sporting the better price - I think the new format will be favorable to long shots in this fast-paced event. MLB is ditching the traditional bracket style and will instead advance the top four sluggers from the first round before a head-to-head clash in the semifinal and finals.
That means nobody will be directly opposite Alonso or any of the other favorites in the first round. And those top sluggers can't be saved by a favorable first-round matchup, either, if they don't come out swinging. That has me looking further down the board at someone like Teoscar Hernandez (+1100), who ranks in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate (14.8%) and has the power to compete with the field.
The best strategy for this event, as is often the case, might just be to shop around for the best sportsbook promos and odds across the entire market.
If you only look at the best odds for each participant, you can get a 0.59% hold in this market as a whole. That's a phemomenal number considering the typical hold rate in any futures market can be anywhere from 10-25%. So, as long as you're being selective with your number, it's hard to make a bad call on Monday night.
Expert picks to win Home Run Derby
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.
- Gunnar Henderson (+500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Teoscar Hernandez (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Terms and conditions apply.
Home Run Derby rules, format
For years, the Home Run Derby had a very simple format: hit as many home runs as you can before recording anywhere from 7-10 outs, depending on the year, and the top home-run hitters in each round would advance.
Then MLB changed the derby format in 2015 to a time-based competition with batters slugging as many long balls as they could in rapid succession. It also introduced head-to-head matchups and a handful of "bonus" rules to incentivize moon shots and inject some late drama to each matchup.
Once again, MLB is switching up the format into a fusion of its two prior rulesets. Here's a general overview of how it'll work this year:
- First round: All eight batters will hit as many home runs as they can in three minutes or 40 total pitches (whichever comes first). After that, they'll receive three untimed outs to add as many home runs as they can before recording a third out. The top four competitors will advance to the second round.
- Second round: The top four home-run hitters from Round 1 will be seeded 1-4 for the second round, which will feature two head-to-head matchups of No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. They'll follow the same rules as the first round with the winners advancing to the finals.
- Final round: The two remaining batters will each have two minutes or 27 total pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many home runs as possible with an additional three outs in bonus time.
In addition to the above, batters will also have a 45-second timeout each round that can used anytime before bonus time. If a batter hits a 425-foot home run in bonus time, they'll receive an extra fourth out.
Tiebreakers in the first round will be based on which player hit the longest home run, while later stages will see a 60-second "swing-off" to break ties with subsequent three-swing bouts until one batter prevails.
Past Home Run Derby winners
| Year | Winner | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Randy Arozarena |
| 2022 | Juan Soto | Julio Rodriguez |
| 2021 | Pete Alonso | Trey Mancini |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2018 | Bryce Harper | Kyle Schwarber |
| 2017 | Aaron Judge | Miguel Sano |
| 2016 | Giancarlo Stanton | Todd Frazier |
| 2015 | Todd Frazier | Joc Pederson |
| 2014 | Yoenis Cespedes | Todd Frazier |
| 2013 | Yoenis Cespedes | Bryce Harper |
*2020 event cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
How to watch Home Run Derby 2024
- Date: Monday, July 15, 2024
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Globe Life Field (Arlington, Texas)
- TV/streaming: ESPN, ESPN.com, MLB.com, MLB.TV
- Favorite: Pete Alonso (+350 via Caesars)
Terms and conditions apply.
Home Run Derby FAQs
When is the 2024 Home Run Derby?
The 2024 Home Run Derby will take place Monday, July 15 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Who is the Home Run Derby favorite?
Pete Alonso is the favorite to win the 2024 Home Run Derby with odds as short as +300. Those odds imply a 25% chance that he'll win the event for a third time, which would tie Ken Griffey Jr., for the most wins in Home Run Derby history.
Who won the Home Run Derby last year?
Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. outlasted Tampa Bay Rays slugger Randy Arozarena in the final round, 25-23, to win the Home Run Derby. In the process, he and Vladimir Guerrero Sr. became the first father-son duo to each win the Home Run Derby.
Who is participating in the Home Run Derby?
Pete Alonso (New York Mets), Adolis Garcia (Texas Rangers), Marcell Ozuna (Atlanta Braves), Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles), Bobby Witt Jr. (Kansas City Royals), Teoscar Hernandez (Los Angeles Dodgers), Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Guardians), and Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies) comprise the eight-man field for the 2024 Home Run Derby.
Where can I bet on the Home Run Derby?
Many of the best sportsbooks will carry 2024 Home Run Derby odds, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
MLB betting odds pages
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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