MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Can Harper Continue Home Run Barrage?
Eleven new series start Friday, leading to an exciting weekend around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the new series beginning Friday, the only two between teams with winning records are the interleague matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox and the three-game set between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants.
That means several teams have opportunities to improve their playoff positioning against sub-.500 teams, and the standings should look much different on Monday.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB schedule and odds
- New York Yankees (+114) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-135)
- Houston Astros (-175) vs. Detroit Tigers (+145)
- Washington Nationals (+180) vs. Miami Marlins (-218)
- Colorado Rockies (+154) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-185)
- Chicago Cubs (-120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+100)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+124) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-148)
- Cleveland Guardians (+136) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-162)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) vs. Boston Red Sox (+100)
- Los Angeles Angels (OFF) vs. New York Mets
- Oakland Athletics (+154) vs. Chicago White Sox (-185)
- Texas Rangers (-110) vs. Minnesota Twins (-110)
- San Diego Padres (+105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
- Cincinnati Reds (+140) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-166)
- Kansas City Royals (+164) vs. Seattle Mariners (-198)
- Atlanta Braves (-155) vs. San Francisco Giants (+130)
Friday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+390 via FanDuel) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135 via DraftKings) vs. Rangers ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Bryce Miller to record a win (+155 via bet365) vs. Royals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Total: Astros-Tigers Over 8.5 (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Friday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Bryce Harper to hit a home run vs. Cardinals (+390 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper is on fire. Harper leads all qualified Phillies hitters with a .299 average and .860 OPS, despite him ending June batting .253 and seeing his average drop to a season-low .278. Since July 1, Harper ranks in the top 25 in the majors in wRC+ and has the 16th-highest BABIP (.384). And though Harper may have only nine home runs in that 44-game span, five have come in the previous seven games. That's even more impressive considering he's faced two teams (the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants) that rank in the top nine of the majors in ERA.
Harper is slashing .462/.588/.1.077 in his torrid seven-game stretch, and his two strikeouts in the previous 26 at-bats suggest he is seeing the ball well. He has a 1.200 OPS in 10 career at-bats against St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas, and Mikolas is susceptible to the long ball, surrendering four home runs in his last 18 innings.
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Harper’s +390 odds to go yard seem like a steal at FanDuel considering he is as low as +320 at DraftKings.
Player prop: Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Rangers (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Minnesota Twins righty Sonny Gray ranks second in the AL and fifth in the majors with 4.2 WAR. Among the 15 pitchers with 2.9 WAR or more, Gray’s 3.15 BB/9 rate is the highest, but he leads the league in FIP (2.78) and HR/9 (0.31), which is a big reason he has made a whopping 14 starts with at least six innings pitched, and 22 starts allowing three or fewer earned runs.
Gray has a 9.25 K/9 rate this season but has increased that to 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings in August, ranking him in the top nine of all qualified starters in that span. He has seven-plus strikeouts in all four August starts, and even his floor is relatively high, recording fewer than five Ks just once in his previous 11 starts.
This is a three-star play, as the Texas Rangers have the fifth-worst strikeout rate (27.5%) during a seven-game losing streak dating back to Aug. 16.
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With odds as high as -160 to cash this Over, we are getting the best value at DraftKings.
Player prop: Bryce Miller to record a win vs. Royals (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller has allowed just two earned runs in his last 17 innings (spanning three starts) and has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his previous seven appearances.
The most impressive part of Miller’s recent hot streak is that his last two starts came against two of the top three teams in the American League (Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros). And in his previous start against Houston, in which he recorded 19 outs (his longest outing since June 18), his average velocity was up at least one mph on all three primary pitches. Furthermore, he generated a 24% CSW, with CSW rates of 36% or better on his two secondary pitches (slider and sweeper).
This would be a more confident five-star play if the Mariners coaching staff were not limiting his workload late in the season, as he pitched six-plus innings in seven of his first nine starts and fewer than six innings in eight of his last nine. However, he should last long enough to complete the five innings to qualify for a win and should leave with a big lead against a Kansas City Royals team that is 38-90 on the first five innings moneyline in its last 128 games (-28.05 units, -21% ROI).
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The +155 odds for Miller to record a win at bet365 trumps the +139 and +150 odds found at Caesars and DraftKings, respectively.
Friday’s MLB game picks
Total: Astros-Tigers Over 8.5 (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Something is wrong with Houston Astros lefty Framber Valdez, as he has pitched to a 6.18 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in a seven-start span, which includes a no-hitter. Valdez has the best ground-ball rate of any AL pitcher (53.5%) but recorded an alarming five ground-ball outs in his last appearance, as he allowed a season-high 10 hits and was tagged for six earned runs by the Seattle Mariners. Most opponents have had little problem elevating Valdez lately, as he has allowed 10 home runs in his previous nine starts after giving up 11 long balls in all 31 starts last year.
Detroit Tigers righty Matt Manning should also allow runs in this game, as his 6.05 home ERA is 2.48 runs higher than his road ERA. He faces an Astros lineup that ranks fifth in HR/FB rate and eighth in wRC+ in road games against right-handed pitchers this year.
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All shops with an O/U of 8.5 are juiced to the Over, but BetMGM’s -120 odds are the lowest, as they go as high as -125 at Caesars.
MLB best bets made 8/25/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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