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Oilers vs. Stars Predictions & Odds: Today's NHL Western Conference Final Expert Picks

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: May 31, 2024 5:30 PM EDT • 3 min 62 sec read.

The Edmonton Oilers overcame a two-goal deficit against the Dallas Stars in Game 4, shifting the series back to Dallas with the Western Conference Final knotted at two games apiece, and we have you covered we're with our Oilers-Stars predictions for Friday's Game 5 based on the best NHL odds. 

Just 48 hours after the Dallas Stars came back from two goals down to win Game 3, the Edmonton Oilers did the exact same thing in Game 4, scoring five straight to win 5-2. The series, now down to a best-of-three, continues with Game 5 on Friday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, with puck drop at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Oilers captain Connor McDavid extended his postseason scoring streak in Game 4, recording three assists, keeping him near the top of the Conn Smythe Trophy odds, leading all playoff scorers with 28 points in just 16 games.

The Dallas Stars couldn't sustain their early momentum in Game 4, resulting in their second road loss of the postseason. Despite this setback, the Stars remain the favorites to win Game 5 and hold the second-shortest Stanley Cup odds.

Here are our best Oilers vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oilers vs. Stars Game 5 expert picks

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Oilers vs. Stars predictions for Friday

Under 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐

Games 3 and 4 in Edmonton hit the Over, while Games 1 and 2 in Dallas had five and four goals, respectively. The Stars' three home games against the Colorado Avalanche in the previous round hit the Over, with all three on the road seeing six goals or fewer. While there's no apparent rhyme or reason to whether Stars' games go Over or Under, three of the four Game 5s in the previous round had five goals or fewer. 

It's the most crucial game of the series, a statement more obvious than players' responses in post-game interviews. The winner of Game 5 in deadlocked series advances about 75% of the time, elevating the importance of the swing contest. Even if Chris Tanev cannot play due to his injury in Game 4, both teams will be steely and focused on minute details and overall defensive play, which should facilitate a lower-scoring contest. This prop bet is reduced to a 3-star wager due to the longer odds and decreased potential profit. The -150 odds imply a probability of 60%, and a $10 wager will pay a profit of $6.67. 

Best odds: -150 via Betway

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Under 55.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This particular prop grabs my attention more than a beachfront happy hour. In the Western Conference Final, the Stars are averaging 25.5 shots per game and the Oilers 31.5. Those top-line stats are slightly misleading. Only Game 1, which went to double-overtime, had Over 55.5 shots. I don't see there being a ton of space to let loose in Game 5, nor will there be many power-play opportunities if the rest of the series is anything to go by. The Oilers have had six power-play attempts, and the Stars have been on the man advantage nine times. 

Facing an average of 12.7 shots in the opening period of the last three games, most of Jake Oettinger's work has come in the first 20 minutes, but I expect a much better start from the Stars, which should decrease the Oilers' early shot total. A $10 bet will pay a profit of $8.62 if the bet hits, and the odds have an implied probability of 53.70%. 

Best odds: -116 via Betway

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Connor McDavid has adopted a shoot-first mentality, at least recently. He's even shooting knowing an assist will likely come from it, as evidenced in the first period of Game 4 when he used Oettinger like a squash player utilizes the back wall. Oettinger dually obliged, inadvertently setting Evan Bouchard up with a rebound as juicy as a ripe mango.

McDavid, with six shots in Game 3 and five in Game 4, has hit the Over in three of four Western Conference Final contests. While space should be more limited in Game 5, McDavid is one of the only players on the planet who could, with a man draped all over him, create enough space to fire on goal in a hobbit-sized shoe cupboard. The +100 odds imply a probability of 50%, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $10. 

Best odds: +100 via Betway

Jamie Benn Over 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jamie Benn's thirst to win his first Stanley Cup is more obvious than my statement about Game 5s. The Stars' captain is on a tear, scoring at least one point in five straight outings, including six in the last three. His line is creating the most scoring chances for the Stars, and none of the aforementioned six points have come on the power play. 

Benn has a point in eight of the previous 10 contests and should be desperate to keep the streak alive. At -118, you can profit $8.47 on a winning $10 bet. The odds imply a 54.13% win probability. 

Best odds: -118 via Betway

Oilers vs. Stars Game 5 info and odds

  • When: Friday, May 31
  • Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas
  • How to watch: TNT, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Stars (-135 via Betway)

Oilers-Stars predictions made Thursday at 11 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.