Tuesday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Red Sox Get to Fried?

We're back to having a full slate on Tuesday after a light Monday docket, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.

Demonstrating their league dominance with a 3-1 win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, the National League-leading Philadelphia Phillies kick off Tuesday's action at home against the Brewers at 6:40 p.m. ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers face the Pittsburgh Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET, and the New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins at 7:05 p.m. ET. These matchups feature three of the favorites by the World Series odds. 

Later, the struggling Atlanta Braves head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox, a game that holds one of our player prop bets for Tuesday.

The day wraps up with two West Coast showdowns at 9:40 p.m. ET: the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners visit the Oakland Athletics, while the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks clash as both teams aim to edge closer to .500.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Tuesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s MLB expert picks

• Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Max Fried Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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MLB player props

Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Royals vs. Guardians | Moneyline: Guardians (-115 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Seth Lugo has always been a solid pitcher, but he's really putting together a spectacular campaign in his first season with the Kansas City Royals, and he's among the contenders by the MLB Cy Young odds. Lugo owns a 1.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and ranks 13th among all qualified pitchers in fWAR.

On Tuesday, Lugo gets a dangerous Cleveland Guardians team that doesn't strike out very often. However, Cleveland does hit ground balls at the 11th-highest rate in the league - Lugo's preferred method of batted-ball outs - and is just middle of the pack in walk rate. Those two factors could allow Lugo to go deep enough into this outing to volume his way to five strikeouts.

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Our trusted projections models agree, as Lugo is projected to record 5.35 punchouts. Based on that projection, we're getting better than the 42% positive expected value on this bet through these +132 odds.

Two of our other best sports betting sites offer competitive +130 prices, while Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is offering the Over at +113 after opening at +130.

Best odds: +132 via bet365

Max Fried Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Braves vs. Red Sox | Moneyline: Braves (-170 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Max Fried has been great this season for an Atlanta Braves team in dire need of some consistency with its best hitter and pitcher both done for the season. However, he doesn't really strike anyone out, as he's sitting at just 7.29 punchouts per nine innings this season.

To his benefit, though, the Red Sox are striking out a lot this season, especially lately. They own the third-highest K rate in the league, and it feels as though that's come out of nowhere.

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However, these odds are far too long considering the projections and the fact that Fried has gone Over this total only 3 times in 11 starts this season. I also bet Fried Under 7.5 when it was -160 at DraftKings, but this is the higher EV play. We're getting roughly 29% +EV on those -160 odds, while this +120 price on Under 6.5 is showing 42% +EV.

Therefore, it depends on whether you prefer implied probability or expected value, and I'll opt for the latter here. For its part, Pinnacle is pricing Under 7.5 at -242, but the most recent odds it offered on Under 6.5 were -127.

Best odds: +120 via BetRivers

MLB player props made Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)