⚾ Who Will Win MLB's AL Cy Young Award? Why You Should Buy Garrett Crochet Right Now

Garrett Crochet is set to take the mound tonight for his fourth start of the season, and I'm seeing a great opportunity to buy him in the American League Cy Young market at our best prediction market apps.

I price Crochet as one of the top two favorites to win the AL Cy Young, but I'm seeing a real gap between the projections and the left-hander's MLB Cy Young win probability at Kalshi. I'm going to break down what I think an appropriate price should be, and just how much more profit you could achieve by buying Yes on Crochet ahead of his start against the Minnesota Twins.

📊MLB Cy Young win probability: Who will win AL CY in 2026?

You'll notice the pricing on Kalshi's AL Cy Young offering is a bit all over the place due to the fact that some pitchers don't include a Yes side, essentially making them one-way markets while others allow you to trade on both sides.

So, if we look simply at the pitchers with both sides available, we see that Crochet is still the second-biggest favorite just as you'd expect. It's not his status that I'm most curious about, but rather the pricing gap between him and favorite Tarik Skubal.

I don't think the gap should be nearly as big as it is. Let's take a closer look at the difference in win probability between Skubal and Crochet, and then I'll explain how I see the AL Cy Young picture after a nearly three weeks of the MLB season.

AL Cy Young win probability

🏆 Who will win AL Cy Young? Latest win probabilities

Let's take a look at the favorite in this market at Kalshi, and compare his win probability and the potential profit you'll make on a successful Yes selection with an investment of $10.

Favorite: Tarik Skubal (29%)

I have no problem with Skubal trading as the favorite. He's the defending two-time champion, and I believe he's the best pitcher in baseball despite his relatively slow start this season. And I'm not even sure I take issue with his particular pricing at Kalshi.

Skubal is trading at 28 cents on Yes, which equates to $26 of profit on a $10 investment. That's the equivalent of +260 American odds, and I think that's more or less fair.

It's still very early in the season, but based on FanGraphs' Cy Young Award projections, Skubal is expected to win via all six separate projection models. That should tell you all you need to know about his status as the favorite, and his 29% win probability. 

So, no, the issue isn't Skubal's win probability; it's Crochet's.

My pick: Garrett Crochet (14%)

Kalshi and I agree that Crochet has the second-best win probability of AL pitchers to win the Cy Young. However, we strongly disagree on how close Crochet is or should be to Skubal. As I wrote above, I make Crochet closer to a 20% win probability for AL Cy Young. And that's where Crochet was just 12 days ago, when he sat at 21% on April 1.

Yes, Skubal is expected to win via the Cy Young Award projections, but it's marginal, and this comes after Crochet finished second in this race last year. These projections don't take into account - nor does Kalshi's pricing - the fact that there may very well be voter fatigue when it comes to Skubal this year, and it's only natural that the AL's second-best pitcher in 2025 would have the advantage then.

Based on how I price this race, you'd get only $40 of profit on a $10 buy on Yes for Crochet. In reality, you're getting $62. That's better than a 50% bump on your potential profit. 

But I wouldn't hesitate. Crochet faces the Minnesota Twins tonight, and though they're relatively dangerous, they're absolutely exploitable for a pitcher like the Red Sox ace, who can rack up strikeouts with the best of them. If he dices them up like I expect him to, you'll see plenty of action on Crochet during and after this game. Get in now and buy the dip before it's too late.

⚖️ How to trade on MLB Cy Young

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple Yes/No contracts.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think Garrett Crochet will win AL Cy Young and buy a "Yes" contract at 14 cents, that implies a 14% chance. If Crochet wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 86 cents per share. If he loses, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations and shifts with every game played, injury update, and any additional roster news. In this case, we're buying before Crochet potentially destroys the Twins.

How to read prediction market odds

Kalshi displays prices in cents, which represent the implied probability of an outcome. Crochet at 14 cents means the market prices a 14% chance he wins AL Cy Young - buy "Yes" at 14 cents and collect $1 if they win, profiting 86 cents along the way.

Here's a simple breakdown of the conversion from Kalshi prices to American odds:

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting?

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways. At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 20 cents implies a 20% chance of winning - the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the tournament ends - locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your loss if your team gets upset.