⚾ AL MVP Odds: Who's Dethroning Judge After WBC Disaster?
For the last three years, the American League MVP race has felt like it was Aaron Judge's to lose. He's walked into Opening Day as the undisputed favorite, often backed by the shortest odds since prime Barry Bonds.
However, as the 2026 season looms, the Yankees captain looks human. Following a 2026 World Baseball Classic where Team USA fell to Venezuela in the final, the narrative surrounding the Yankees captain has shifted from inevitable to vulnerable - he's no longer a lock on the AL MVP odds board.
📊 AL MVP odds: Who's dethroning Judge?
AL MVP odds via FanDuel - Is Judge still your favorite? I'm looking further down the board this season.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | +185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +450 |
| Cal Raleigh | +700 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +1200 |
| Nick Kurtz | +1500 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +1600 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1600 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +1700 |
| Roman Anthony | +2000 |
| Junior Caminero | +2700 |
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🤦 The WBC disaster: Why Judge is fading
Judge's performance in the 2026 WBC was a lightning rod for criticism. As "Captain USA," Judge was expected to be the anchor of one of the best lineups ever assembled. Instead, he struggled with high velocity, and as a result, strikeouts (we've heard this before). Over his last four games at the World Baseball Classic, which include the quarters, semis, and finals, Judge went 2-for-15 with six strikeouts, punctuated by an 0-for-4 championship game against Venezuela.
Stat line: He finished the tournament hitting just .222/.364/.481. While he flashed power with a two-run shot against Mexico, his overall inconsistency has bettors thinking he's just allergic to the big moment. In the MLB playoffs, he's been equally as bad, owning a career postseason slash line of .236/.346/.476, showing a clear dropoff. Yes, the playoffs don't matter when it comes to the award, but one might begin to wonder if his disastrous WBC could affect him in the early going of the season.
The leadership gap: Critics pointed to his flat pre-tournament speech that went viral for the wrong reasons. In a sport where narrative often drives MVP votes, the "Captain America" failure is a stain that Witt Jr. is ready to exploit.
🥊 AL MVP odds: The challengers
Bobby Witt Jr. (+450)
While Judge struggled, Witt looked like the best player on the roster during the WBC. His speed was disruptive, and his defense at shortstop was flawless.
If the Royals challenge for the AL Central, Witt's true five-tool status makes him the most logical heir to the MVP throne (yes, I've been rewatching Game of Thrones). Last season, he was in the 90th percentile for xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velo, while his defense and speed are the best in the game at a premium position. He's my No. 1 pick to knock Judge off the perch.
Nick Kurtz (+1500)
Kurtz burst onto the scene last year, earning a unanimous Rookie of the Year award. His rookie season wasn't just good; it was record-breaking. Despite playing only 117 games after his April debut, he launched 36 home runs and posted a staggering 1.002 OPS (173 OPS+). His 2025 Statcast profile was a sea of red, ranking in the 98th percentile for barrel percentage (18.4%) and bat speed. If he maintains this over a full 162-game slate, 50+ home runs is well within reach.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1600)
Vladdy is coming into this season after an unbelievable World Baseball Classic, where he batted 8-for-18 (.444) with two home runs. This comes after a postseason where the ball exploded off his bat, launching eight bombs while recording a 1.289 OPS across 18 games. If these numbers are any indication, Guerrero is about to have the best season of his career.
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