Valspar Championship Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023: Burns Eyes 3rd Straight Win at Copperhead
With many of the wold's top golfers taking a week to rest following The Players Championship, Sam Burns eyes his third straight win at the Valspar Championship. Below, we look at our best Valspar Championship picks based on the top PGA Tour odds.
If Sam Burns wants to win the Valspar Championship for the third straight year, he'll need to fend off a top-heavy field fronted by betting favorites Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Matt Fitzpatrick.
That group consists of two reigning major winners, with Thomas and Fitzpatrick holding the current PGA Championship and U.S. Open titles, respectively, but they're on Burns' turf this week. The 26-year-old is 15th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following The Players Championship and has claimed two of his four career PGA Tour victories at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course.
Below, we offer up our top Valspar Championship picks, along with the best PGA Tour odds, a course preview, and all the key stats to know.
Valspar Championship picks to win
- Justin Rose (+2200 via BetMGM)
- Byeong Hun An (+7500 via Caesars)
- Garrick Higgo (+10000 via PointsBet)
Valspar Championship odds 2023
|Matt Fitzpatrick||+1400||+1400||+1600 🔥||+1200 ❄️||+1400|
|Justin Rose||+2000||+1700 ❄️||+2200 🔥||+2000||+2000|
|Adam Hadwin||+2500||+2000 ❄️||+2200||+2500||+2500|
|Tommy Fleetwood||+2200||+1600 ❄️||+2500 🔥||+2200||+2200|
|Brian Harman||+2800||+3300||+3500 🔥||+2800||+2800|
Check out our look at the Masters odds, PGA Championship odds, U.S. Open odds, and Open Championship odds.
Valspar Championship key stats
- Strokes gained: approach
- SG: around-the-green
- SG: tee-to-green
- Birdie-or-better percentage
- Par-5 scoring
- Proximity from 175-200 yards
Valspar Championship picks and predictions
Justin Rose (+2200 via BetMGM)
Rose has 40 career rounds played at Innisbrook Resort with an average of 1.50 true strokes gained on the field per round. He missed the cut in his last visit to this venue in 2021, but he tied for fifth his trip before that in 2018. Rose also has a win under his belt already in 2023 and is coming off another strong showing at The Players Championship in which he gained 2.20 strokes from tee to green per round and finished in a tie for sixth.
Rose has never won at this venue but does have three top-10 finishes to go with two missed cuts and a T-29 result in his six appearances at Innisbrook Resort. Rose opened at each of our five best sportsbooks with +2200 odds to win this week but those have trickled down everywhere but BetMGM. That's a good sign to take the lingering value.
The Englishman is gaining strokes in all key areas except off the tee across his last 13 measured rounds and his accuracy will be more important here than distance, as it was last week.
Byeong Hun An (+7500 via Caesars)
An is tied for first on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in SG: around-the-green and that's an aspect of his game on which he can lean this week. He tied for 35th against a much stronger field at last week's Players Championship while gaining strokes on approach, and on and around the greens.
An didn't play this event last year and has finishes of just 67th and T-49 to go with a missed cut in three career appearances at Innisbrook. However, he hasn't missed a cut through seven PGA Tour events in 2023 with a withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago.
Few golfers in this field have seen their odds fluctuate as much as An's this week. After opening as high as +7000 on Monday, those odds peaked at +8000 on Tuesday. The remaining +7500 via Caesars is still a fine target for bettors with FanDuel offering market-low odds of +6500.
Garrick Higgo (+10000 via Caesars)
It's been nearly three years since Higgo's first and only PGA Tour win to date at the 2021 Palmetto Championship. He's coming off a T-44 finish in last week's strong field that marked his fifth made cut through seven events to begin 2023.
Luring me most to Higgo this week is his PGA Tour rank of seventh in par-5 birdie-or-better percentage this season. He gained 1.32 strokes per round from tee to green and went 8-under par on the par 5s last week en route to a T-44 finish.
We're seeing some dispersal in Higgo's outright odds as we get further into the week. The +10000 via Caesars as of Wednesday evening is the best number in the market.
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) course profile
Length: 7,340 yards
Architect: Larry Packard
A relatively long par-71 venue, the Copperhead Course has some similarities to Pete Dye's TPC Sawgrass that was used last week by the top names in this field. The course puts an emphasis on approach shots, especially from the key distance of 175-200 yards. Play around the greens is also highly important at Copperhead with fast greens and thick rough surrounding them.
Scoring must be done on the par 5s and those holes comprised four of the seven that played under par in this tournament last year.
Valspar Championship info
When: Thursday, March 16 - Sunday, March 19
Where: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead), Palm Harbor, FL
How to watch: Golf Channel, ESPN+, NBC, Peacock
|Year||Winner||Score to Par||Winning Margin|
|2022||Sam Burns||-17||Playoff (Davis Riley)|
|2021||Sam Burns||-17||3 strokes|
|2019||Paul Casey||-8||1 stroke|
|2018||Paul Casey||-10||1 stroke|
|2017||Adam Hadwin||-14||1 stroke|
How to watch the Valspar Championship
The Valspar Championship will be broadcast by Golf Channel and NBC. The tournament can be streamed on PGA Tour Live, ESPN+, and Peacock.
|1||2-6 p.m. ET||Golf Channel/Peacock|
|2||2-6 p.m. ET||Golf Channel/Peacock|
|3||1-3 p.m. ET||Golf Channel/Peacock|
|3||3-6 p.m. ET||NBC/Peacock|
|4||1-2 p.m. ET||Golf Channel/Peacock|
|4||2-6 p.m. ET||NBC/Peacock|
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