U.S. Open First-Round Leader Picks 2024: Back This 110-1 Long Shot

The third major of 2024 tees off early Thursday morning, and bettors can begin cashing tickets in the evening with the help of our U.S. Open first-round leader picks based on the odds from our best golf betting sites

The third major of 2024 tees off Thursday morning at Pinehurst No. 2 in Moore County, N.C., a little under a month after Xander Schauffele went wire-to-wire to claim his first career major victory at Valhalla Golf Club.

Schauffele is once again among the betting favorites by the U.S. Open odds, but it's World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler who's in control of the tournament oddsboard and featured in our U.S. Open expert picks. 

But there's much more value to be had on Schauffele, Scheffler, and the rest of the field via the more open first-round leader betting market. We hunt for an early payout with our first-round leader picks based on the best odds for Thursday's opening round at Pinehurst.

U.S. Open first-round leader picks

• Cameron Smith (+4500 via Caesars)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+5000 via DraftKings)
• Victor Perez (+11000 via bet365)

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U.S. Open first-round leader odds

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.

Who'll lead after Round 1 in the U.S. Open?

Cameron Smith

The former Champion Golfer of the Year has long been one of the best putters in all of golf, and that's going to be the key stat all week at Pinehurst No. 2.

While the Australian is coming off a dreadful T-48 finish in LIV Golf's Houston event last week, he has two runner-up finishes on that circuit this year, including a playoff loss. He tied for sixth in the Masters and then opened the PGA Championship with a first-round 68 en route to a T-63 finish.

The weather in Pinehurst, N.C., looks stable through the day Thursday with partly cloudy skies but little threat of rain. Wind will range between 4-6 miles per hour during playing hours and temperatures will reach a high of 84 degrees late in the afternoon.

So, we're backing Smith with his 7:18 a.m. ET tee time. This is when we expect the course to play its softest (and easiest) all week before the greens firm up even more in the afternoon.

Best odds: +4500 via Caesars

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Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick also stands to benefit from his 7:29 a.m. ET tee time, in a group with Will Zalatoris and Tiger Woods. The Englishman, known for his studious note-taking during every round of golf, tied for 48th in the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst as an amateur. Few golfers benefit as much from experience.

The 2022 U.S. Open champion is coming off a T-5 finish in the Memorial Tournament. His putter caught fire during Round 4, when he gained 3.97 strokes per round over the field to improve his weekly average to 1.33 strokes gained.

Fitzpatrick is 14th on the PGA Tour this season in birdie-or-better percentage from our key distance of 200-plus yards. He'll need to rely on that with the course playing slightly softer - and thus longer - Thursday morning.

Best odds: +5000 via DraftKings

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Victor Perez

Perez is the only golfer of the three picks we're targeting to play in the afternoon wave on Thursday. He'll tee off at 12:52 p.m. ET, but we're not expecting the slightly tougher conditions to have a negative impact on his game.

Perez has moved back to No. 78 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following a third-place finish in the Canadian Open and a T-12 in the Memorial against a much stronger field. He has never made the cut in the U.S. Open, and he missed the cut in the PGA Championship a month ago following a T-12 finish last year. We're not concerned, as we don't even need him to make the weekend to cash this 110-1 ticket Thursday evening.

The French golfer was exceptional with his irons last week at Muirfield Village Golf Club, and he leads the PGA Tour this season in 3-putt avoidance. That key stat should help him battle what's expected to be the toughest part of Pinehurst this week.

Best odds: +11000 via bet365

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How to bet on the first-round leader market

Betting on the first-round leader market in golf adds excitement to tournaments by allowing you to wager on which player will have the lowest score after the opening round. To get started, research players known for strong starts and consider their recent form, course history, and potential weather conditions. Understanding the market involves exploring individual player odds or broader groupings based on factors like world rankings or tee times.

As with any bet, it's crucial to manage risks and rewards responsibly. While the potential payouts can be tempting, remember that golf is unpredictable, and anything can happen in a single round. By carefully assessing player performances and course conditions, you can make more informed decisions when betting on the first-round leader market and enhance your overall golf betting experience.

Odds in this market will generally be higher for the tournament favorites than they are for the outright win while being shorter for players with longer odds in the outright betting market.

U.S. Open betting picks

• U.S. Open picks and predictions
• U.S. Open expert picks
• U.S. Open long-shot picks
• U.S. Open power rankings
• U.S. Open props picks
• U.S. Open odds

How to bet on golf

Betting on the U.S. Open golf tournament requires understanding the unique challenges presented by the course and conditions, especially when it's held at Pinehurst No. 2. Here’s a guide to help you get started:

First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets available. Common options include outright winner bets, where you pick the golfer you think will win the tournament. For example, you might see odds like +300 for a favorite like Scottie Scheffler, meaning a $10 bet would return a profit of $30 if he wins.

Head-to-head matchups are also popular. In these bets, you pick which of two golfers will have the better score in the tournament. For example, you might bet on Xander Schauffele at -120 to beat Rory McIlroy at +100, meaning you risk $12 to win $10 if Schauffele scores lower. Prop bets focus on specific events within the tournament, such as betting on whether there will be a hole-in-one or the performance of a particular golfer on a certain hole.

Pinehurst No. 2 is known for its challenging greens and difficult roughs, which can significantly impact player performance. When betting on the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, consider golfers who excel in accuracy and putting. Additionally, look at recent form and past performances at similar courses.

Research the players, paying attention to their recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form. For example, if a golfer has a strong track record at courses with difficult greens, they might be a good bet for Pinehurst No. 2. Factor in weather conditions as well, as they can influence play significantly.

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