Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions from Tuesday's Sports Slate
Check out our sports betting experts' top picks for today's slate based on the odds from our top-rated sportsbooks. Top picks from NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, and NHL action.
We're using Tuesday's best bets not only to look at the action from the day itself but also at the upcoming NFL and college football games.
Read on for our best bets for Tuesday, Dec. 13, based on the odds from our top-rated sportsbooks.
Today's Best Bets
- NFL: Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (-114 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- College football: Troy -1 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)
- College basketball: Memphis +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- NHL: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 Goals (+240 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- NBA: Boston Celtics -0.5 third quarter (-120 via FanDuel)
Tuesday's NFL Best Bet
Seahawks +3.5 (-114) ★★★
The 49ers just handed Tom Brady the third-worst loss of his career, while most would admit the Seahawks inexplicably lost to the Panthers, who entered last week with a nine-game road losing streak. However, we are backing the desperate Seahawks at home as a contrarian play, as we expect Purdy to find life much more difficult on the road.
The key to the game will be Seattle’s run defense. The Seahawks entered last week allowing 5.3 yards per rush since Week 10 (30th) and 2.1 yards after contact per rush (31st), and just got steamrolled for 223 yards on the ground by Carolina.
However, Deebo Samuel does not figure to play for San Francisco after suffering an ankle injury last week. Thus, not having to deal with his versatility and being able to focus more of the game plan around slowing down Christian McCaffrey should aid in that respect.
49ers-Seahawks picks made by Mike Spector.
Tuesday's College Football Best Bet
Troy -1 (-110) ★★★
The betting point spread is essentially declaring this game a toss-up and rightfully so. The last loss for both Troy and UTSA came on Sept. 17. While the Trojans did suffer the only defeat in conference play of the two teams, there’s no denying that the Sun Belt was a stronger league than Conference USA this season.
From a strength of schedule standpoint alone, it makes sense why the betting market has moved this line in the Trojans’ favor. It’s also worth noting that Troy’s defense was one of the best among Group of 5 teams all season long. Prior to the SBC title game which featured plenty of garbage time, the Trojans had held six straight opponents under 20 points.
Not to be outdone, UTSA’s offense ranked 11th nationally in scoring at 37.6 points per game. The Roadrunners also finished the year ranked 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. With a veteran quarterback in Frank Harris, this unit is certainly potent.
That being said, UTSA hasn’t faced a defense the caliber of Troy’s all season long, aside from a non-league matchup against Texas. The other cause for concern is the struggles of the Roadrunners’ own defense throughout the year.
Quarterback Gunnar Watson played his best game of the season in the Sun Belt title game, a positive sign for Troy heading into the bowl game. The Trojans’ rushing attack has really picked up steam over the past month as well. UTSA may struggle to contain Kimani Vidal for a full four quarters, especially if the offense is unable to sustain drives.
UTSA-Troy picks made by Henry John.
Tuesday's College Basketball Best Bet
Memphis +6.5 (-110) ★★★★
This is sure to be contrarian play by the time of tip-off, as Alabama is coming off a big win over then-No. 1 Houston. The Crimson Tide make a dangerous living of the volume of their field-goal attempts that come from 3-point range (46.7% is the 21st-highest), as they are a true “live and die by the three” team.
Alabama certainly will not get anything at the rim against an elite rim-protecting Memphis team, which ranks 43rd in NPAR (near-proximity field-goal attempts, per Haslametrics), and 26th in 2-point percentage allowed (43.2%). Considering the Tigers also allow a tick over 30% from the 3-point line, they have the defensive make-up to frustrate Alabama.
This number is down from an opening of +7.5 and has already touched +5.5 at FanDuel. Thus, be sure to grab whatever 6.5 at minimal juice you can find before the number continues to drop in Memphis’ direction.
College basketball best bets made by Mike Spector.
Tuesday's NHL Best Bet
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 goals (+250) ★★★★★
Edmonton Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has scored seven goals in 13 road games this season, registering at least one goal in six of those games.
The Oilers are in Nashville to take on the Predators, with both teams on the second game of a back-to-back. Edmonton lost 2-1 at Minnesota while Nashville dropped a 1-0 decision in overtime at St. Louis on Monday.
Since it is a back-to-back situation, the Preds are likely to turn to backup goaltender Kevin Lankinen. He has been excellent in limited duty this season, posting a .934 save percentage and 6.76 Goals Saved Above Expected in seven games. Based on Lankinen’s previous two seasons of NHL play, though, it is fair to question the sustainability of his early numbers.
In any case, priced at +250, the implied probability of a Nugent-Hopkins goal is 28.6%, well below his rate of production thus far.
Caesars has a Nugent-Hopkins anytime goal priced at +250. PointsBet and DraftKings boast +240 odds, while FanDuel is at +235. On a $10 bet, there is an extra $1.50 available at Caesars compared to FanDuel.
NHL best bets made by Scott Cullen.
Tuesday's NBA Best Bet
Celtics -0.5 third quarter (-120) ★★★★★
Are you ready to get really specific with this game? The Celtics should end this road trip with a win, and my model projects value on the current 3.5-point spread. If you prefer to play the main markets, we’d suggest laying the points with Boston.
But my favorite bet for this game is actually a third-quarter spread, which is already available at FanDuel. Bettors need to lay -120 juice for Boston to win the third quarter by more than 0.5 points, and that is worth jumping on given the tendency of both teams.
Only one team in the entire league has a worse net rating than the Lakers in the third quarter, according to NBA.com. Los Angeles has a net rating of minus-10.3 in the third period, which does not bode well for this specific matchup. The Celtics are sixth in the league with a plus-6.6 net rating in the third frame. Per TeamRankings, Boston is averaging 29.3 points per game in the third quarter (ninth in the league) while Los Angeles is 18th with 27.6.
Truth be told, Boston paces the league with a net rating of plus-17.5 in the opening quarter and ranks 13th or better in both the second frame and fourth period, as well. But given the Lakers’ ineptitude out of the half, we prefer betting on the Celtics to take care of business in the third quarter tonight.
Celtics-Lakers picks made by Shane Jackson.
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