Virginia Tech vs. Miami Prediction, Tonight: Week 5 Picks & Odds
Miami heads into its ACC opener against Virginia Tech looking like the best team in the conference while the Hokies have struggled to start the year.
- Despite the Hurricanes being a college football championship odds contender, we think the Hokies could come to play in our Virginia Tech vs. Miami prediction
- Cam Ward is the consensus favorite by the Heisman Trophy odds, but the weather could impact his performance
- Miami is the only non-SEC/Big Ten program that's minus-money by the College Football Playoff odds
In one of the most interesting matchups of our Week 5 college football predictions, we think this one could be closer than expected.
Virginia Tech vs. Miami odds movement
Miami opened as a 17.5-point favorite at our college football betting sites. The line has seen plenty of movement, moving all the way to Miami -20 before dropping back down to -17.
The Hurricanes have 73% of the money on them covering, with just 27% on Virginia Tech. The Over has 67% of the money, with the total hovering around 54.
Best Virginia Tech vs. Miami picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Virginia Tech +19.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Cam Ward Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (+108 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Virginia Tech to cover the spread: +19.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Virginia Tech vs. Miami opening odds:
- Virginia Tech: +17.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
- Miami: -17.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Not only is this line up from a low of -7.5 on the lookahead line in mid-August at BetMGM, but it continued to rise from the opening number posted on Sunday afternoon.
However, at some point the value tilts to the underdog, and this spread has become too out of control to do anything but back the Hokies.
If the Hokies can stay in the game, wideout Jaylin Lane will be well-positioned to cash the Over on his receiving yards prop, which Shane Jackson featured as part of his Virginia Tech vs. Miami college football player prop bets.
Virginia Tech holds the experience factor
No team boasted more returning offensive production entering the season than Virginia Tech (90.6%). It also ranked 13th in defensive production, returning 76.9% from that side of the ball from last campaign.
That experience (the fourth-most in total) is invaluable going into an environment like Hard Rock Stadium, and it should continue to benefit the Hokies as the season continues.
Miami’s inexperience against mobile quarterbacks
Miami’s defense ranks first nationally in sacks, averaging four per game. But the best quarterback it's faced has been Graham Mertz, who isn't known for mobility and was a sitting duck in the pocket during Week 1.
The first true mobile quarterback they opposed was South Florida’s Byrum Brown last week. And while the Hurricanes bottled him up for 27 rushing yards, their seven tackles for a loss sat under the team's season average.
I expect Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones’ legs to cause issues for the Hurricanes, as he's run for 209 yards and two touchdowns. His mobility is not only key against a ferocious pass rush, but he can also help extend drives and keep Miami’s explosive offense off the field.
Cam Ward hasn’t seen a pass rush like the Hokies’
Cam Ward, the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, has led Miami’s offense to three straight 50-plus-point games for the first time in school history. The Hurricanes’ 209 points scored are also the school’s most ever through the first four games of a season.
However, the strength of Virginia Tech’s defense is a pass rush that's averaging 3.25 sacks per game. Antwaun Powell-Ryland leads the way, and his 5.5 sacks are tied for the most in the country.
Miami was the highlight of the ACC last year after starting 4-0, and then the Hurricanes shockingly lost their ACC opener 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19.5-point favorites. While the same script may not be written from a win/loss standpoint, the 19.5 points are too much to lay in this matchup.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Virginia Tech vs. Miami prop pick for Week 5
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Cam Ward Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (+108) ⭐⭐⭐
Miami’s passing attack ranks second in the country to Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss, averaging 405 yards per game. Cam Ward leads FBS quarterbacks with 14 passing touchdowns and is 11th in completion percentage (72.4%).
The heavy juice on the Over for this total is justified given that he's logged at least three passing touchdowns in all four games this season, and six of his previous seven dating back to last campaign.
However, I'm doubling down on my prediction the Hokies will cover with this three-star play, as Virginia Tech's defense entered last week ranked 19th in havoc and 33rd in finishing drives.
The Hokies’ PFF coverage rank (64) was much better than their tackling rating (104) entering last week. Therefore, Miami could exploit Virginia Tech on the ground, just like Rutgers did with 52 rushing attempts versus 25 passes.
There's insane value when backing this Under at Caesars, with the gap to our other best sports betting sites ranging from -102 at FanDuel to -140 at bet365 (carrying a 58.33% implied probability).
Caesars is alone among our best sportsbooks while offering plus-money odds for this wager. I'm laying my $10 bet down there while hoping to net $10.80 in profit as part of our college football Week 5 predictions.
Best odds: +108 via Caesars | Implied probability: 48.08%
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Virginia Tech vs. Miami odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Virginia Tech vs. Miami game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 86 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 10-mph southerly winds
- Favorite: Miami -17.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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